Before exploring the opportunities for **September 9, 2026**, let’s look back at the performance recorded yesterday by FootProbability.
📊 Results for September 8: 8 winners out of 16
Out of the 16 predictions tracked yesterday, the results are perfectly balanced:
✅ 8 pronostics gagnants
❌ 8 pronostics perdants
📊 Taux de réussite : 50 %
But the simple success rate doesn't tell the whole story.
Several winning selections were offered at attractive odds:
🔥 Ulsan Hyundai vainqueur @3,50 ✅
🔥 Al-Hazm vainqueur @3,20 ✅
✅ Union Santa Fe – Instituto : Over 2,5 @2,55
✅ AEK Athens – LASK : Under 2,5 @2,27
✅ Ilves – Jaro : Under 2,5 @2,23
The top pick of the day—AEK Athens vs. LASK with the "Under 2.5 goals" bet—was a winner, thanks to AEK's 1–0 victory.
The day also serves as a reminder that a very high EV is never synonymous with certainty: a bet on Porto to beat Manchester City at odds of 4.50 had an EV of +104%, yet Manchester City won 2–0.
Value measures a probability gap, not a guarantee of a result.
⚽ Matches on September 9
La sélection est particulièrement resserrée aujourd’hui.
FootProbability analysis:
⚽ 46 matchs
💎 6 Value Bets
📈 EV moyenne : +27,1 %
⭐ Confiance moyenne : 46,4 %
Only 6 value bets out of 46 matches currently meet the model's criteria.
⭐ High Match: Toronto FC – Nashville SC
Today's top Fort FootProbability match is in the MLS.
Toronto FC – Nashville SC
🎯 Victoire de Toronto FC
Model score: 56/100
Odds: 2.90
EV: +36.0%
Confidence: 46.9%
Probable score: 2-1
The model detects an advantage for a home win here, even though the confidence level remains moderate.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for September 9
A notable feature of the day: the first three selections are home wins.
🥇 Toronto FC – Nashville SC
🎯 Toronto FC gagne @2,90
Score : 56/100
EV : +36,0 %
Confidence: 46,9 %
🥈 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo – FK Sarajevo
🎯 Zeljeznicar gagne @3,50
Score : 55/100
EV : +56,1 %
Confidence: 44,6 %
🥉 Matsumoto Yamaga – Shonan Bellmare
🎯 Matsumoto Yamaga gagne @3,00
Score : 55/100
EV : +37,4 %
Confidence: 45,8 %.
This Top 3 is therefore more aggressive than those of previous days, featuring three odds ranging from 2.90 to 3.50. Conversely, the level of risk is naturally higher.
🧩 A "2 out of 3" system, distinct from the Top 3.
The 2 out of 3 system selected by FootProbability is particularly interesting today, because it does not include the three Top 3 matches.
1. Mamelodi Sundowns – Siwelele
🎯 BTTS Oui @2,45
Score : 67/100
EV : +33,6 %
Confidence: 54,5 %
2. Dečić – Petrovac
🎯 Over 2,5 @2,49
Score : 62/100
EV : +32,6 %
Confidence: 53,2 %
3. Pohang Steelers – Gimcheon Sangmu
🎯 Under 2,5 @1,65
Score : 61/100
EV : +11,4 %
Confidence: 67,5 %
The system thus achieves an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +25.9%.
And I find there is an interesting editorial element here: the scores for the 2/3 system are significantly higher than those for the Top 3 1X2, even though the two rankings are not based on exactly the same logic.
🛡️ Favorite of the day: Mamelodi Sundowns
We also have a logical favorite today:
Mamelodi Sundowns – Siwelele
✅ Mamelodi Sundowns gagne @1,22
📊 Probability model: 57,0 %
The model therefore confirms the market favorite, even though such very low odds do not automatically mean it is a "value bet."
🔎 Other matches to watch
In the Champions League, the **Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray** match stands out with an **Under 2.5 goals** bet at **2.25**, a model score of **59/100**, and an EV of **+25.4%**.
The model also identifies several long-shot underdogs. These selections should be distinguished from the most solid picks: high EV can simply reflect a significant discrepancy between the model and the market.
🎯 What are the key takeaways from September 9?
After finishing the day on September 8th with 8 winners out of 16, FootProbability presents a much more selective list today, featuring just 6 Value Bets across 46 matches.
The top 3 consists exclusively of home wins, with high odds of 2.90, 3.50, and 3.00.
For its part, the **2-out-of-3 system posts a higher average score of 63/100**, featuring more diverse markets: BTTS, Over 2.5, and Under 2.5.
Finally, Mamelodi Sundowns @1.22 is the logical favorite identified by the model.
As always, odds are subject to change right up until kick-off. Probabilities, analyses, and Value Bets are available in the FootProbability member area.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
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