FootProbability continues its analysis this Sunday, September 27, 2026, with a particularly busy schedule. The model has analyzed 54 matches and identified 22 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +20.6%, with an average confidence level of 52.1%.
The volume is significant, though not all selections are equally compelling. 12 matches achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher, while some "Value Bets" remain classified as "Caution" or "Risky." The day's Top 3 stands out in particular, with three selections scoring at least 60/100.
Looking back at September 26: 10 winning predictions out of 14
The day of September 26 ended with a positive result for the FootProbability tracker. Out of the **14 recorded selections**, **10 were winners and 4 were losers**, representing a **71.4% success rate**.
The three selections listed as "Top 3" all finished as winning bets. Wydad AC – Widad Témara, BTTS Yes @2.32, was a winner with a final score of 1–3. Difaa El Jadida – CODM Meknès, Over 2.5 @2.37, also came in with a spectacular 2–6 result. Finally, UTS Rabat @3.00 won 2–1 against FUS Rabat.
Regarding the historical "Value" selections, the record stands at **6 wins and 4 losses**. Based on a theoretical fixed stake of one unit per selection, the winning bets returned 14.32 units against 10 wagered, representing **+4.32 units and a +43.2% ROI**. These figures reflect only this specific day and, naturally, do not predict future results.
54 matches and 22 value bets this Sunday.
Today, FootProbability has reached a total of **54 analyzed matches** and **22 identified Value Bets**. This represents a significant volume, but the number of Value Bets should not be confused with the number of bets to actually place.
A "value bet" primarily indicates that a positive discrepancy has been detected between the probability estimated by the model and the available odds. The model score, confidence level, and risk level are then used to prioritize these opportunities.
This is particularly evident today: some Value Bets exceed 60/100, while others fall below 30/100 and are clearly flagged as risky.
Strong Match: Santos Laguna – CF Pachuca
The featured match for September 27 is the Liga MX game between Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca.
FootProbability selects Under 2.5 goals at 2.17. This selection achieves an excellent model score of 76/100, a confidence level of 61.6%, and an EV of +33.7%.
The calculated probable score is 1-1. With a score of 76/100, this selection currently boasts the highest rating among the key opportunities highlighted by the model.
It logically holds the top spot in the FootProbability Top 3 and also appears in the "2 out of 3" system.
Top 3 FootProbability: three selections rated 60/100 or higher
Today's Top 3 features an interesting characteristic: all three selections score at least 60/100.
The first pick is therefore Santos Laguna vs. CF Pachuca: Under 2.5 @2.17, with a rating of 76/100, an EV of +33.7%, and a confidence level of 61.6%.
The second pick concerns **Moghreb Tetouan vs. Renaissance Berkane**. The model selects **BTTS Yes @2.34**, with a score of **65/100**, an EV of **+31.3%**, and a confidence level of **56.1%**.
Finally, Niki Volos – Nestos Chrisoupolis rounds out the top three with BTTS Yes @3.10. The model score reaches 60/100, with 54.7% confidence and a calculated EV of +69.5%. The odds are attractive, though they naturally entail higher variance.
A "2-out-of-3" system with an average of 67/100.
The **2-out-of-3** system offered today features two selections from the Top 3 and adds a third match.
The first pick is **Santos Laguna vs. CF Pachuca: Under 2.5 @2.17**, with a score of 76/100. The second is **Moghreb Tetouan vs. Renaissance Berkane: BTTS Yes @2.34**, with a score of 65/100.
The third pick is for **Serbia vs. Netherlands**, with **Under 2.5 goals @2.30**. It has a score of **61/100**, a confidence level of **57.8%**, and an EV of **+33.0%**.
Overall, this results in an average score of 67/100 and an average EV of +32.7%. As always with a 2-out-of-3 system, two correct selections out of three are required to win one of the three doubles.
Other value bets exceed 50/100.
Several opportunities lie just behind the top three.
Malta – Liechtenstein, BTTS Yes @2.74 scores 59/100 with an EV of +52.8%. Maghreb Fès – CR Khemis Zemamra, Over 2.5 @2.43 scores 54/100 with an EV of +28.9%.
Two other selections score 51/100. **Jordan vs. Syria** is recommended as "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 2.06 with +16.0% EV, while **Oviedo vs. Sporting Gijón** is selected for "Over 2.5 Goals" at odds of 2.33 with +21.5% EV.
These matches round out a day in which the model identifies several opportunities exceeding its 50/100 threshold.
A positive EV does not mean a sure bet.
Today’s 22 value bets also demonstrate why it is important not to look solely at EV.
For example, Tigres UANL – Puebla, Under 2.5 @2.02, scores only 28/100. Vanuatu – New Caledonia, a Vanuatu win @2.54, drops to 27/100. A LA Galaxy win @2.15 against the Colorado Rapids shows just 24/100.
These selections have a positive EV according to the model, but their low score results in a **Risky** rating. FootProbability thus distinguishes between the presence of mathematical value and the overall reliability of a prediction.
Market favorites
Three favorites are also confirmed today by the model's probabilities. Nashville SC has a 64.6% probability of winning against Toronto FC, with odds of 1.37. Houston Dynamo is estimated at 56.9% against Sporting Kansas City, with odds of 1.57.
Finally, Ellas Syros has a 50.4% probability of winning against Pyrgos 1968, with odds of 1.63.
These "favorites" serve as an additional indicator of how the model interprets the matches, but they should not be confused with value bets.
A day with great potential, but still requiring selectivity.
Following a September 26th performance of 10 wins out of 14 recorded selections, FootProbability heads into another particularly action-packed day featuring 54 matches and 22 Value Bets.
The day's key signal remains the **76/100 for Santos Laguna vs. CF Pachuca**, while the top three picks show scores of **76, 65, and 60/100**. Meanwhile, the "2-out-of-3" system achieves an average of **67/100**.
Yesterday's results are encouraging, but they do not change the fundamental rule: each prediction must be evaluated independently, and no past streak guarantees the next one.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Les probabilités, EV et scores FootProbability ne garantissent aucun résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.