FootProbability presents a much more selective slate of matches for this Monday, September 28, 2026. The model has analyzed 28 matches and identified only 5 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +17.2%, with an average confidence level of 54.8%. Following a difficult day on September 27, the model is sticking to its established methodology rather than attempting to artificially inflate the number of predictions. Today, only 4 matches have achieved a score of 50/100 or higher.
Update for September 27: a difficult day
The results for September 27 are negative. The tracker recorded **21 completed selections—7 winners and 14 losers**—representing a 33.3% success rate. Selections classified as "Value" finished with **7 wins and 11 losses**. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the result is **-1.22 units**, or an ROI of approximately **-6.8%**.
The main highlight comes from the **"Strong Match" between Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca**. FootProbability had selected "Under 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.16, and the match ended with a score of **1–0**. The "Strong Match"—which boasted an excellent rating of **76/100**—was therefore a winning pick. However, this round serves as a reminder that a good run never guarantees future results. FootProbability tracks both positive and negative rounds to measure the model's performance over the long term.
Key Match: Japan vs. Venezuela
The featured match for September 28 is Japan vs. Venezuela. The model selects "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.24, with a score of 61/100, an EV of +26.4%, and a confidence level of 56.4%. The probable score calculated by FootProbability is 1-1. This selection also takes the top spot in the "Top 3" list.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 28
The Top 3 kicks off with Japan vs. Venezuela, BTTS Yes @2.24, scoring 61/100. Second place goes to Deportivo Cali vs. Águilas Doradas, Under 2.5 @1.70, with a score of 49/100, +3.3% EV, and 60.7% confidence. Finally, Marko vs. Panthrakikos, BTTS Yes @2.02, rounds out the Top 3 with 47/100, +12.3% EV, and 55.6% confidence.
This selection is more cautious than those of previous days. Only one of the three picks has a score above 50/100. This demonstrates once again that FootProbability does not seek to artificially present three high-scoring predictions when the day's data does not warrant it.
A very consistent 2-out-of-3 system.
THE système 2 sur 3 présente en revanche trois sélections très proches. Türkiye – Italie, Under 2,5 @2,10, obtient 63/100 avec +26,8 % d’EV et 60,4 % de confiance. Suède – Pologne, Under 2,5 @2,14, atteint 62/100 avec +26,6 % d’EV et 59,2 % de confiance. Enfin, le système reprend Japon – Venezuela, BTTS Oui @2,24, avec 61/100.
Overall, the system posts an average score of 62/100 and an average EV of +26.6%. The three scores range from 61 to 63/100, resulting in a particularly consistent system.
Only 5 value bets out of 28 matches.
There is a significant difference compared to yesterday. Today, FootProbability detects only **5 value bets out of 28 matches analyzed**. The top pick is Japan vs. Venezuela, while **South Korea vs. Uruguay (BTTS: Yes @1.92)** scores 40/100 and remains rated as a "Caution" play.
The other three Value Bets are Deportivo Cali – Águilas Doradas, Under 2.5 @1.70, with 49/100, Marko – Panthrakikos, BTTS Yes @2.02, with 47/100, and Leganés – Castellón, victory of Leganés @3.00, with 46/100. The latter displays an EV of +38.4%, but its model score remains below 50/100.
Good scores without Value Bet status
A match can also achieve a good score without being classified as a Value Bet. This is the case for Turkey vs. Italy at **63/100** and Sweden vs. Poland at **62/100**. Both matches are tracked by the model and included in the "2-out-of-3" system, but they are not among the day's five official Value Bets.
We also have the Cuba vs. Bonaire match, with "Under 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.48. This pick scores 60/100 with an EV of +46.2%, yet it is still classified as a "Watched Match." This distinction allows for multiple levels of analysis, balancing mathematical value, the model's score, and the pick's final status.
FootProbability remains selective.
September 28th therefore presents a very different profile from the previous day. After the 22 Value Bets on September 27th, the model retains only 5 today. The Japan vs. Venezuela "Strong Match" scores 61/100, and the 2-out-of-3 system shows an average of 62/100.
After a losing day, the goal is not to seek a "recovery" bet. FootProbability simply continues to apply the same criteria, identify promising discrepancies, and record all results. The model's performance must be evaluated over the long term.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Les probabilités, scores et EV présentés par FootProbability ne garantissent aucun résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.