FootProbability presents a highly selective slate of matches for this Wednesday, September 30, 2026. The model analyzes just 11 matches and identifies 3 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +29.1%, with an average confidence level of 51.9%. Only three matches achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher.
This limited selection confirms how FootProbability works. The number of predictions varies depending on the matches and available odds. The model does not aim to provide a fixed number of Value Bets each day.
September 29th Roundup: A positive day despite the "Match Fort"
September 29th concludes with **5 winning predictions out of 9 recorded results**, a success rate of 55.6%. The "Strong Pick" for the Australia vs. Brazil match—Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.29—did not win; the game ended with a score of 2–4.
The performance of selections classified strictly as "Value" remains positive. FootProbability achieved **4 winning and 3 losing picks**, a success rate of 57.1%. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the four winning selections returned 9.03 units against 7 units wagered. The result is therefore **+2.03 units and a +29.0% ROI**.
Sagan Tosu also won their match against Tokyo Verdy. The home win was offered at odds of **2.90** in the Top 3. This round demonstrates that a losing "Strong Match" selection does not necessarily mean the overall set of picks ends in a loss.
Big Match: Mexico vs. Peru
The Featured Match for September 30 is Mexico vs. Peru. FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @2.45, with a model score of 60/100. The EV reaches +39.6% and confidence is 57.0%.
The model therefore estimates that there is a noteworthy discrepancy between its calculated probability for "Both Teams to Score" (BTTS) and the available odds. The most likely scoreline is **1-1**. As always, positive EV indicates theoretical value and does not guarantee the match result.
Lithuania – Andorra rounds out the best opportunities.
The second featured pick is Lithuania vs. Andorra. The prediction is also BTTS – Yes, with odds of 2.33. This pick has a rating of 57/100, an EV of +26.5%, and a confidence level of 54.3%.
Today, the "Top 3" section does not artificially force a third selection. Only two matches appear in the ranking of the best opportunities. This reflects the model's philosophy: an available slot need not be filled if no other selection meets the established criteria.
A "2-out-of-3" system with an average of 61/100.
The 2-out-of-3 system features three relatively similar selections. The first is Eritrea vs. South Africa, Under 2.5 @2.38, with an excellent score of 67/100, 61.2% confidence, and an EV of +45.7%.
The second selection features the key match Mexico vs. Peru, BTTS Yes @2.45, with a score of 60/100. The third is Lithuania vs. Andorra, BTTS Yes @2.33, with 57/100. The set thus achieves an average score of 61/100 and an average EV of +37.3%.
The system therefore features three odds higher than 2.30. These levels may offer interesting potential, but they also entail significant uncertainty. High EV should not be interpreted as a guarantee of success.
Only 3 value bets across 11 matches.
Today, FootProbability identifies only **3 value bets out of the 11 matches analyzed**. Mexico vs. Peru is the first, with BTTS Yes at odds of 2.45 and a score of 60/100. Lithuania vs. Andorra follows, with BTTS Yes at odds of 2.33 and a score of 57/100.
The third Value Bet concerns the match between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. The model selects a win for Papua New Guinea at odds of 2.72. The model score is lower, at 36/100, with an EV of +21.1%. Consequently, this selection is classified as "Caution" despite its positive theoretical value.
These differences illustrate why it is important to look at several indicators. A "value bet" indicates a discrepancy between the calculated probability and the odds, whereas the model score provides an additional perspective on the overall quality of the selection.
The best score of the day is not a value bet.
A notable opportunity stands out today with **Eritrea vs. South Africa**. The "Under 2.5 goals" bet at odds of 2.38 scores **67/100**—the highest rating of the day—and offers an EV of +45.7%.
However, the match remains classified as a **Watched Match** rather than a Value Bet on the member page. Nevertheless, based on other criteria, it is interesting enough to be included in the 2-out-of-3 system.
This distinction shows that a high score and a positive EV are not always sufficient to determine the final status of a selection. FootProbability employs several filters to organize the opportunities on offer.
No favorite selected today.
For the second consecutive day, **no favorite meets FootProbability's criteria**. The site therefore does not offer a "Favorite of the Day."
This omission is intentional. The section does not need to be filled in every day. When no team meets the specified criteria, the model opts not to offer any selection. FootProbability does not force any selection.
A short but interesting day
The schedule for September 30 is much more limited, featuring only **11 analyzed matches and 3 Value Bets**. The key match between Mexico and Peru scores 60/100, while the "2-out-of-3" system shows an average of 61/100. The day's highest score reaches 67/100 for the Eritrea vs. South Africa game.
Following a successful day with Value Bets, FootProbability is sticking to the same method. There is no intention to increase the number of selections after a good day, nor to try and recoup losses after a poor result. The goal remains to analyze the probabilities, odds, and available value for each match.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Une Value Bet, une EV positive ou un score élevé ne garantit aucun résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.