FootProbability kicks off October with a rather selective slate of matches. The model analyzes **19 games** and identifies just **4 Value Bets**. The average EV stands at **+43.0%**, with an average confidence level of **57.8%**. In total, **7 matches achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher**, featuring several interesting opportunities at the top of the rankings.
Following a September 30th session limited to three Value Bets, the model still makes no attempt to artificially increase the number of selections. Today, the four Value Bets are accompanied by several "watched matches" that also post strong scores.
Results for September 30: the "Match Fort" pick wins at odds of 2.45.
The Mexico vs. Peru marquee match was offered with odds of 2.45 for "Both Teams to Score – Yes." The game ended 1–1, making the prediction a winner. This was the day's standout successful pick.
The other two Value Bets did not win. The match between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands ended in a 1–1 draw, while Lithuania beat Andorra 3–0. The final record is therefore 1 winning Value Bet out of 3.
With a theoretical fixed stake of 1 unit per selection, 3 units would have been wagered for a return of 2.45 units. The result is -0.55 units, representing a theoretical ROI of -18.3%. The "Strong Match" was a winner, yet the overall day remained negative. That is why FootProbability tracks all results, whether positive or negative.
Key Match: Uzbekistan vs. Syria
The featured match for October 1st is Uzbekistan vs. Syria. The model selects BTTS Yes @2.40 with an excellent score of 66/100. The EV reaches +38.0%, and confidence stands at 57.5%.
The probable score calculated by FootProbability is 1–1. Following the successful "Both Teams to Score" pick for Mexico vs. Peru yesterday, the model is once again selecting the "Both Teams to Score" market. The odds of 2.40 remain attractive, though they also reflect significant uncertainty regarding the outcome.
A top 3 all scoring above 60/100
Today’s FootProbability Top 3 features three selections with particularly close scores. Uzbekistan vs. Syria takes the top spot with BTTS Yes @2.40 and a score of 66/100. Argentina vs. Bolivia follows with BTTS Yes @2.31, a score of 64/100, an EV of +29.6%, and 56.1% confidence.
The third pick is Maldives vs. Lebanon, BTTS Yes @3.40, with a score of 60/100, an EV of +91.3%, and a confidence level of 56.3%. All three top picks therefore score above 60/100 and offer odds higher than 2.30.
The EV for Maldives vs. Lebanon is particularly high. This means the model detects a significant discrepancy between its estimated probability and the available odds. However, this does not mean that the prediction has a 91.3% chance of winning.
A very consistent 2-out-of-3 system.
The 2-out-of-3 system shows excellent consistency today. Uzbekistan vs. Syria (BTTS: Yes @2.40) scores 66/100. British Virgin Islands vs. Montserrat (Under 2.5 @2.30) also scores 66/100, with an EV of +36.4% and 59.3% confidence.
The third pick is Dominica vs. Guyana, Under 2.5 @2.21, with a rating of 65/100, an EV of +30.6%, and a confidence level of 59.1%. The system thus achieves an average score of 66/100 and an average EV of +35.0%.
The three scores range from 65 to 66/100. It is therefore a particularly consistent system in terms of the model's indicators, even though each match naturally carries its own risk.
Only 4 value bets out of 19 matches.
Today, FootProbability identifies **4 value bets among the 19 matches analyzed**. The first three are also the top 3 selections: Uzbekistan vs. Syria (BTTS Yes @2.40), Argentina vs. Bolivia (BTTS Yes @2.31), and Maldives vs. Lebanon (BTTS Yes @3.40).
The fourth pick concerns **Curaçao vs. Trinidad and Tobago**. The model selects **BTTS Yes @1.85**, with a score of **57/100** and an EV of +13.1%. All four of the day's Value Bets thus achieve a score above 50/100.
This is an interesting difference compared to some previous days, when several Value Bets were classified as "Cautious" or "Risky." Today, the four official selections present a more consistent profile.
Good scores among the tracked matches as well.
Some matches achieve very high scores without being classified as Value Bets. British Virgin Islands vs. Montserrat scores 66/100 with Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30, and Dominica vs. Guyana scores 65/100 with Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.21.
Moreover, these two matches are included in the "2-out-of-3" system. They demonstrate once again that a tracked match can yield a high score and positive EV without automatically being designated as a "Value Bet."
The final status depends on several criteria used by FootProbability. It is therefore necessary to distinguish between the estimated probability, EV, confidence, the model score, and the selection's final ranking.
Today's favorite returns.
After two days without a "Favorite of the Day," a team once again meets the model's criteria. Atlético Nacional is selected to beat Junior at odds of 1.40. The probability calculated by FootProbability is 51.2%.
This selection belongs to a different category from Value Bets. The objective of the Favorites section is to identify market favorites that are also confirmed by the model criteria.
A highly selective start to October
October therefore begins with **19 matches analyzed, 4 Value Bets, and 7 fixtures rated 50/100 or higher**. The Uzbekistan vs. Syria feature match reaches a score of 66/100, while the entire top 3 remains at 60/100 or above.
The "2-out-of-3" system is also highly consistent, with an average score of **66/100** and an average EV of +35.0%. Despite these promising indicators, results are never guaranteed. The previous day demonstrated this once again: a "Strong Match" can win even while the overall outcome ends in the red.
FootProbability therefore continues to apply the same method, without seeking to increase the number of selections following a loss or a win. The model's performance must be evaluated over the long term and across a significant number of predictions.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Une Value Bet, une EV positive ou un score élevé ne garantit aucun résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.