FootProbability heads into this Saturday, October 3, 2026, with a particularly busy schedule. The model has analyzed 93 matches and identified 34 Value Bets. The average EV stands at +17.7%, and the average confidence level is 53.9%. In total, 15 matches have achieved a model score of 50/100 or higher.
The schedule is therefore much more extensive than Friday's. However, this volume of "Value Bets" does not mean that all 34 selections are equally attractive; the projected scores and confidence levels vary significantly from one match to another. The FootProbability ranking makes it possible to pinpoint the opportunities that stand out the most clearly.
October 2nd Roundup: Value Bets limit the damage
October 2nd was a day of mixed results. Of the **7 results currently recorded in the tracker**, FootProbability has **3 winning predictions and 4 losing ones**, representing a 42.9% success rate. The **Top 3 finished 0 for 3**, with defeats for Ittihad Tanger against Moghreb Tétouan, Widad Témara against UTS Rabat, and DR Congo against Uganda.
The situation is very different for the selections classified as **Value** in the tracker. São Paulo vs. Santos (Over 2.5 @2.04), Eldense vs. Oviedo (Over 2.5 @2.34), and Independiente vs. Instituto Córdoba (BTTS Yes @2.06) were winning bets. Only South Korea vs. Venezuela (BTTS Yes @2.00) was a losing bet.
The "Value" record is therefore **3 wins out of 4**. With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, 4 units would have been wagered for a return of 6.44 units, resulting in **+2.44 units and a theoretical ROI of +61%**.
This result also demonstrates why FootProbability separates the various indicators. A given day might be poor for the most highly recommended picks while still yielding a positive outcome for the recorded Value Bets. Conversely, a successful run offers no guarantee regarding the results of the following day.
Strong Match: Cray Wanderers – Chippenham Town
The Highlight Match on October 3rd is Cray Wanderers – Chippenham Town in the FA Cup. FootProbability selects Under 2.5 @2.38 with a model score of 69/100. The EV reaches +34.0% and confidence is 56.3%.
This is the best rating of the day, and this match is also classified as a Value Bet. The model detects a significant discrepancy between its estimated probability for the Over/Under market and the odds offered. The projected score shown is 1-1.
A top 3 all scoring above 60/100
Today's top 3 begins with **Cray Wanderers vs. Chippenham Town** (Under 2.5 goals @2.38), rated 69/100. Second place goes to **India vs. Brazil** (BTTS – Yes @2.64); this pick scores **63/100**, with an EV of **+47.1%** and a confidence level of **55.7%**.
The third pick is Deportes Tolima vs. Chico, also for "Both Teams to Score – Yes." The odds are 2.25, with a model score of 61/100, an EV of +26.4%, and a confidence level of 56.2%. All three top picks thus exceed a score of 60/100.
A "2-out-of-3" system with an average of 64/100.
Today’s "2-out-of-3" system features exactly the three matches from the "Top 3" list. Cray Wanderers vs. Chippenham Town kicks off the system with "Under 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.38 (69/100 confidence). India vs. Brazil follows with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.64 (63/100), and finally, Deportes Tolima vs. Chico with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.25 (61/100).
The system thus achieves an average score of 64/100 and an average EV of +35.8%. FootProbability suggests a total stake of between €3 and €5, distributed across the three double bets for this system.
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34 value bets out of 93 matches analyzed
The day stands out for a significant number of Value Bets: 34 selections across 93 analyzed matches. However, these should not be viewed as 34 predictions of equal weight. The model score remains essential for distinguishing the most solid opportunities from selections classified as "Caution" or "Risky."
Among the best value bets, **India vs. Brazil** scores 63/100 with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 2.64. **Niki Volos vs. Larisa** scores 56/100 with "Over 2.5 Goals" at 2.40 and an EV of +26.6%. **CODM Meknès vs. Kawkab Marrakech** shows a score of 54/100 with "Over 2.5 Goals" at 2.41 and an EV of +29.2%.
In Spain, **Albacete – Eibar** scores 52/100 with the Double Chance X2 @1.40. **Cádiz – Leganés** scores 51/100 with Under 2.5 @1.60. In Wales, Caernarfon Town – Barry Town also stands at 51/100 with BTTS Yes @1.52.
This diversity illustrates the model's logic: FootProbability does not seek out high odds alone. A "Value Bet" represents a discrepancy detected between the calculated probability and the available odds, while the model score provides an additional layer for prioritizing selections.
Two favorites of the day
Unlike Friday, FootProbability has selected two Favorites of the day today. The first is Deportivo Cali against Alianza Valledupar, with a Deportivo Cali win offered at odds of 1.45 and a model probability of 54.0%.
The second match is Caernarfon Town vs. Barry Town. A Caernarfon Town victory is priced at 1.44, with a model-calculated probability of 52.4%. Both teams meet the criteria used by FootProbability for the "Favorites" category.
A very broad slate that requires remaining selective.
With 93 matches and 34 Value Bets, this Saturday, October 3, is one of the most action-packed days recently analyzed by FootProbability. The Cray Wanderers vs. Chippenham Town match stands out with a score of 69/100, while the entire top 3 exceeds 60/100 and the 2-out-of-3 system achieves an average of 64/100.
The volume, however, does not change the method. A positive EV represents a theoretical value, not a guarantee of a specific outcome. After an October 2nd marked by a losing "Top 3" pick but positive Value Bets in the tracker, FootProbability continues to apply the same criteria without attempting to compensate for the previous day's results.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A value bet, positive EV, or a high score does not guarantee any result. Gamble responsibly. 18+.