FootProbability continues its football analysis for Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Our Dixon-Coles statistical model examines probabilities, available odds, and value discrepancies to identify the most compelling matchups.
Today, the dashboard shows 35 matches analyzed, 13 Value Bets, an estimated average EV of +18.3%, and an average confidence level of 52.1%.
Discover our "Strong Match" picks, the model’s top three opportunities, and a selection of "Value Bets." All predictions are available for free in the FootProbability member area.
⭐ Strong Match: AS Roma – Slovan Bratislava
Prediction: Both teams to score (BTTS Yes)
- Odds: 1.85
- Estimated EV: +19.4%
- Model confidence: 64.5%
- Model score: 65/100
- Probable score: 1-1
The FootProbability model identifies a favorable discrepancy between its estimated probability of both teams scoring and the odds offered.
With a model score of 65/100, this match takes the top spot in our rankings for the day. The most likely scenario is a game in which both teams manage to score at least one goal.
This selection remains subject to the uncertainties inherent in football: an estimated positive EV does not guarantee a winning outcome.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for October 20th
🥇 AS Roma – Slovan Bratislava
BTTS Yes — Odds 1.85 — EV +19.4%
Confidence: 64.5% | Model score: 65/100
Our "Strong Match" also takes the top spot in the Top 3, thanks to its confidence level and overall rating.
🥈 15 de Agosto – Simba
BTTS Yes — Odds 2.56 — EV +45.7%
Confidence: 56.9% | Model score: 60/100
The model estimates that the probability of both teams scoring is higher than what is implied by the odds. This opportunity offers a high EV, but also carries more uncertainty than the "Match Fort" (Strong Match) selection.
🥉 Asyut Petrol – Zamalek SC
BTTS Yes — Odds 2.48 — EV +38.9%
Confidence: 56.0% | Model score: 60/100
The third pick of the day—an Egyptian match—rounds out a top three entirely focused on the "both teams to score" market.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: the three selections in the model
The 2-out-of-3 system presented today by FootProbability is based on three separate predictions:
| Encounter | predictions | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha | Under 2.5 goals | 2,38 |
| AS Roma – Slovan Bratislava | BTTS Yes | 1,85 |
| Napoli – Bodo/Glimt | Under 2.5 goals | 2,64 |
Average system score: 64/100
Estimated average EV of the three selections: +39.4%
The principle involves distributing a total stake across three double bets. Getting two out of three selections correct results in winning one double, though this does not necessarily guarantee a net profit on the total stake.
Please note: the average EV shown corresponds to individual selections and does not represent a guaranteed return or the calculated EV of the complete system.
💎 A few Value Bets to discover
In addition to the "Strong Match" (Match Fort) and the "Top 3," several other fixtures among today’s 13 "Value Bets" stand out.
Al-Nassr – NEOM
Under 2.5 goals — Odds 2.49 — EV +33.8%
Model score: 59/100 | Likely score: 1-1
The model favors a relatively low-scoring scenario, with fewer than three goals in the match.
Alvechurch – Spalding United
Alvechurch victory — Odds 2.70 — EV +29.4%
Model score: 50/100 | Likely score: 2-1
An opportunity in the 1X2 market, with a home win estimated to be more likely than the odds suggest.
Forest Green – Chesham United
BTTS Yes — Odds 2.00 — EV +13.3%
Model score: 48/100 | Likely score: 1-1
The model anticipates a match in which both teams could find the back of the net. This pick calls for a greater degree of caution.
Masr – Future FC
BTTS Yes — Rating 2.11 — EV +10.1%
Model score: 43/100 | Likely score: 1-1
A value bet with a more moderate estimated edge, illustrating the diversity of the opportunities analyzed today.
🔓 Find the 13 Value Bets in the free member area
FootProbability only publishes a portion of the opportunities identified by its model here.
In the free member area, you will find the 13 Value Bets of the day, along with probabilities, odds, model-predicted scores, and detailed analyses of the matches.
👉 Accéder gratuitement aux pronostics FootProbability
The goal is to help you understand probabilities and compare markets, without promising you any gains.
📊 A method based on probabilities
FootProbability uses, among other methods, a Dixon-Coles statistical approach to estimate probabilities for 1X2 outcomes, Over/Under markets, and both teams to score.
A "value bet" occurs when the probability estimated by the model suggests a positive value relative to the available odds.
It is important to distinguish this theoretical EV from actual profitability, which is measured only after the outcomes of the events are known.
Our model continues to be evaluated through the tracking of completed predictions and the analysis of its performance.
⚽ Play like FootProbability
With 35 matches analyzed and 13 "Value Bets" identified, this round of fixtures offers several scenarios worth examining. The marquee matchup between AS Roma and Slovan Bratislava, along with the other two selections in our Top 3, represent the primary opportunities highlighted by our model.
Visit the member area to discover all of today’s analyses.
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Predictions are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Odds are subject to change. Betting is restricted to adults. Please gamble responsibly.