This Saturday, October 24, 2026, FootProbability highlights three selections derived from its optimized statistical model: Leganés vs. Mallorca, Arsenal vs. Everton, and USM Alger vs. CR Belouizdad. Our goal remains to identify opportunities with positive expected value (+EV) by comparing the probabilities calculated by our model against the odds offered by bookmakers. With 200 matches analyzed and 25 "Value Bets" detected, we now prioritize a curated selection—tracked over time—rather than simply focusing on the bets with the highest EV figures.
⭐ Strong Match: Leganés – Mallorca
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals | Odds: 2.13 | EV: +12.6%
Our model identifies an opportunity in the goals market for this Segunda División match. The estimated probability of seeing over 2.5 goals reaches 52.9%, compared to an implied probability of approximately 46.9% based on odds of 2.13. Projections indicate an expected 1.56 goals for Leganés and 1.23 for Mallorca, with a 56.3% probability that both teams will score.
The most likely exact score is 1-1, but this specific projection does not contradict the "Over 2.5 goals" prediction, which encompasses several possible scenarios. Leganés vs. Mallorca is therefore our top-pick "Strong Match" of the day, offering a positive expected value (EV) of +12.6%. This figure represents a theoretical statistical advantage, though it does not guarantee the outcome of the match.
🏆 Top 3 optimized predictions for October 24, 2026
| Rang | Encounter | predictions | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 1 | Leganés – Mallorca | Over 2.5 goals | 2,13 | +12,6 % |
| 🥈 2 | Arsenal – Everton | Both teams score | 2,00 | +10,9 % |
| 🥉 3 | USM Alger – CR Belouizdad | Both teams score | 2,10 | +11,9 % |
🥈 Arsenal – Everton: both teams to score
Prediction: BTTS Yes | Rating: 2.00 | EV: +10.9%
For this Premier League match, FootProbability estimates a 55.4% chance that both teams will score at least one goal. The model projects an expected 1.64 goals for Arsenal and 1.15 for Everton, while the probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 52.9%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1. With odds of 2.00—implying a 50% probability—our estimate indicates a positive expected value of +10.9%. This selection is based on the probabilities within the "Both Teams to Score" (BTTS) market, rather than solely on the status of the two teams.
🥉 USM Algiers – CR Belouizdad: BTTS Yes
Pronostic : Les deux équipes marquent | Cote : 2,10 | EV : +11,9 %
The Algiers derby rounds out our optimized Top 3. The model estimates a 53.3% probability that both teams will score, with an expected 1.44 goals for USM Alger and 1.18 for CR Belouizdad. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 48.7%, while the most likely exact score is 1-1. At odds of 2.10, the bookmaker’s implied probability is approximately 47.6%, which accounts for the positive expected value (EV) of +11.9%. However, the unique nature of a derby serves as a reminder that no statistical projection is a certainty.
🔬 Our new method: optimized Value Bets
FootProbability uses a probabilistic model—inspired by the Dixon-Coles method and Poisson distributions—to estimate the potential outcomes of matches. The analyses focus on markets such as 1N2 (match winner), Over/Under, BTTS (Both Teams to Score), and likely scorelines. The resulting probabilities are then compared against available odds to identify opportunities with a positive expected value.
The formula used is simple: EV = (Estimated Probability × Odds) − 1. When a selection has a positive EV, it means the model estimates its probability of success to be higher than what the odds suggest. However, a high EV does not guarantee a win, nor is it sufficient on its own to demonstrate the reliability of a prediction.
This is why we have evolved our approach toward an optimized selection, distinct from the full range of detected Value Bets. The goal is to better identify the specific opportunities flagged by our system, track their actual outcomes, and progressively evaluate the model’s consistency. This method also allows us to ensure consistency across the predictions displayed on our homepage, within the free member area, and in our automated Telegram posts.
📈 Performance tracked with full transparency
In our last review, the tracking of optimized selections showed 153 completed bets—82 wins and 71 losses—representing a success rate of 53.6%. The cumulative result stood at +28.47 units, with an ROI of +18.7%. While these initial results are encouraging, they should be interpreted with caution: a positive track record does not guarantee that future selections will be profitable.
Our next goal is to reach 200 completed optimized bets, providing us with a larger sample size. We will then be able to examine the consistency of the results, identify the best-performing markets, and track the evolution of our return on investment. This approach is part of our commitment to building a transparent football analysis tool with verifiable performance.
🎯 Get our predictions for free
FootProbability selections are available for free in our member area, featuring model-generated probabilities, current odds, and identified opportunities. Our homepage and Telegram messages now present the same optimized predictions, ensuring consistent information across all our platforms.
👉 Accéder aux pronostics FootProbability | Consulter les performances
Conclusion
This Saturday, October 24, 2026, our featured "Strong Match" pick—Leganés vs. Mallorca (Over 2.5 goals at 2.13)—is joined by two other opportunities: Arsenal vs. Everton (Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.00) and USM Alger vs. CR Belouizdad (Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.10). These three selections reflect our new strategic direction: prioritizing a consistent methodology, measurable probabilities, and transparent tracking of results. In this way, FootProbability continues to evolve with a clear ambition—to steadily enhance the quality of our analyses and demonstrate their long-term value.
🔥 FootProbability Shop
Discover the official FootProbability creations.
🔞 Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Réservé aux personnes majeures. Jouez de manière responsable. En cas de difficulté, contactez Joueurs Info Service au 09 74 75 13 13.