This Wednesday, October 28, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 117 matches and identifies 13 Value Bets using its statistical model. Our optimized Top 3 highlights FAR Rabat vs. Ittihad Tanger, Pamplona vs. Eibar, and National Bank of Egypt vs. Al Masry. With an average EV (Expected Value) of +20.7% and an average confidence level of 52.2% displayed on the dashboard, the model continues its search for opportunities based on probabilities and available odds. Another significant milestone: our tracking of optimized Value Bets has now surpassed 200 completed wagers.
⭐ Optimized pick of the day: FAR Rabat – Ittihad Tanger
Competition: Botola Pro (Morocco) | Prediction: Both Teams to Score (BTTS Yes) | Odds: 2.03 | EV: +14.1% | Confidence: 56.2% | Model Score: 49/100
For this Moroccan league match, FootProbability favors a scenario in which both teams score. Our model estimates the probability of this outcome at 56.2%, compared to approximately 49.3% implied by the odds offered. This discrepancy results in a positive expected value of +14.1%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, which aligns with the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" market. While this selection ranks at the top of our optimized list, its score of 49/100 suggests that a cautious approach is advisable.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability du 28 octobre 2026
| Rang | Encounter | predictions | Odds | EV | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | FAR Rabat – Ittihad Tanger | BTTS Yes | 2,03 | +14,1 % | 49/100 |
| 🥈 | Pamplona – Eibar | BTTS Yes | 2,01 | +13,9 % | 49/100 |
| 🥉 | National Bank of Egypt – Al Masry | Over 2.5 goals | 2,05 | +9,8 % | 44/100 |
🥈 Pamplona – Eibar: Both teams score
Competition: Copa del Rey | Prediction: BTTS Yes | Odds: 2.01 | EV: +13.9% | Confidence: 56.7% | Model Score: 49/100
Our second selection concerns the match between Pamplona and Eibar. The model assigns a 56.7% probability to the "BTTS – Yes" (Both Teams to Score) outcome, while the odds of 2.01 correspond to an implied probability of approximately 49.8%. FootProbability therefore identifies a positive EV (Expected Value) of +13.9%. The most likely score is 1-1; however, this remains a statistical estimate rather than an exact prediction. With a confidence score of 49/100, the Pamplona–Eibar match ranks slightly higher in confidence than our first selection, though it is still subject to the inherent uncertainties of cup ties.
🥉 National Bank of Egypt – Al Masry: over 2.5 goals
Competition: Egyptian Premier League | Prediction: Over 2.5 goals | Odds: 2.05 | EV: +9.8% | Confidence: 53.5% | Model score: 44/100
For this Egyptian match, FootProbability highlights the "Over 2.5 goals" market, which requires at least three goals to be scored in the game. The model estimates the probability at 53.5%, compared to approximately 48.8% implied by the posted odds, resulting in a theoretical edge of +9.8%. The indicated probable score is 1-1; this represents one specific scenario generated by the model and does not encompass the full range of goal probabilities. This third selection has a score of 44/100—lower than the first two—and should therefore be approached with caution.
📊 Today’s FootProbability figures
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Matches analyzed | 117 |
| Value bets detected | 13 |
| Dashboard average EV | +20,7 % |
| Average dashboard confidence | 52,2 % |
| Average score of the Top 3 | 47/100 |
| Average EV of the Top 3 | +12,6 % |
The three optimized selections feature odds ranging from 2.01 to 2.05, with positive EV (expected value) figures between +9.8% and +14.1%. The ranking is based on the model score, confidence level, and the value identified, following the application of our filters. A "Value Bet" is not necessarily a highly probable outcome; rather, it represents a favorable discrepancy between a statistical estimate and the market odds.
💎 Other value bets to watch
In addition to the Top 3, FootProbability identifies several opportunities across European and international competitions. These include Nagoya Grampus vs. Urawa—with a win for Nagoya at odds of 2.48 and an EV of +14.4%—Numancia vs. Oviedo—with "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.07 and an EV of +9.2%—as well as Petrovac vs. Mladost DG—with "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.03 and an EV of +6.9%. While these matches qualify as "Value Bets," they do not rank among the highest-scoring entries in the optimized list.
Other selections show lower scores and higher risk levels—notably Degerfors vs. Västerås, St Johnstone vs. Motherwell, and several Coppa Italia Serie D matches. Their inclusion in the analyses does not mean they should be prioritized; indicators of caution and risk remain essential for interpreting the model.
📈 FootProbability surpasses 200 completed optimized bets
This is an important milestone for our project. As of September 21, 2026, the real-world tracking of our optimized Value Bets has reached 201 completed bets, with 105 winners, a profit of +30.01 units, and an ROI of +15.0%. These results are calculated using a constant stake and reflect the model’s historical performance; they do not guarantee future outcomes.
This initial sample of over 200 bets will allow us to conduct a more in-depth analysis of profitability—broken down by market, odds range, confidence level, and model score. The goal is to determine which types of selections are truly driving our results and to identify areas for improvement, all without making hasty changes to our methodology. Transparency in tracking remains at the core of FootProbability.
🔬 A method based on probabilities
FootProbability uses statistical models—notably Poisson and Dixon-Coles—to estimate the probabilities of various match scenarios. These estimates are compared against available odds to calculate the expected value (EV) using the formula: EV = (estimated probability × odds) − 1. A positive EV indicates a theoretical advantage, provided the model’s estimate is sufficiently accurate. The selections are then filtered and ranked; however, their internal score should not be mistaken for a guaranteed probability of success.
⚽ Find all our analyses for free
The FootProbability member area allows you to view analyzed matches, predictions, odds, probabilities, and the day’s "Value Bets." Our "Performance" page also provides a track record of results and the evolution of your ROI.
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Conclusion
For Wednesday, October 28, 2026, our optimized Top 3 features: FAR Rabat vs. Ittihad Tanger (BTTS Yes at 2.03), Pamplona vs. Eibar (BTTS Yes at 2.01), and National Bank of Egypt vs. Al Masry (Over 2.5 goals at 2.05). With 117 matches analyzed, 13 "Value Bets" identified, and now over 200 optimized wagers completed, FootProbability continues to develop based on a measurable and transparent statistical method.
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