The second semi-final of the 2026 World Cup pits two giants of world football against each other: England and Argentina. A historic clash between two nations dreaming of another World Cup final. On one side, the Three Lions rely on their attacking prowess and clinical finishing. On the other, Argentina continues its journey with the ambition of securing another world title.
The FootProbability statistical model analyzed this meeting to identify the most interesting markets and opportunities with the best ratio of probability to value.
A very open semi-final
The model's projections predict a particularly balanced match. Argentina has a slight advantage with a 48.6% chance of winning, compared to 28.3% for England, while a draw is estimated at 23.1%.
The most likely score is 1-1, proof that the two teams should have a close duel before making the difference.
The best football prediction probability
The market that stands out is Over 2.5 goals.
With an estimated probability of 67.9% and odds of 2.40, the model detects a Value Bet of +63.0%, making it the best selection of this semi-final.
Even though the most likely theoretical score is 1-1, offensive projections indicate a high probability that the match will open up quickly and exceed three goals.
Argentina are slight favorites
The model gives Argentina an advantage with a probability of victory close to 50%. The Argentinians appear to have better team balance, which allows them to emerge as favorites despite facing particularly tough opposition.
This slight advantage also explains why the model suggests a Value Bet on Argentina's victory, with odds of 3.05 and an EV of +48.3%. However, this bet remains more risky and is aimed at players seeking higher returns.
Match statistics
The probabilities calculated by FootProbability show a match geared towards attack.
La probabilité de voir plus de 2,5 buts atteint 67,9 %, tandis que le marché Les Deux Équipes Marquent (BTTS) affiche également 67,9 %.
These two indicators reflect the offensive potential of both teams and reinforce the relevance of an open scenario.
The FootProbability Council
Of all the matches analyzed today, England vs Argentina gets the best Model Score of 66/100.
The Over 2.5 goals market appears to be the best compromise between probability, expected value, and potential return. An Argentina victory presents an attractive alternative for those seeking higher odds, but with a higher level of risk.
As always, FootProbability favors Value Bets, meaning situations where the probability calculated by the model is higher than that estimated by bookmakers. This approach aims to find long-term value rather than simply designating a favorite.
Which team will reach the 2026 World Cup final? The answer will be revealed on the pitch, but one thing is certain: this semi-final promises to be one of the biggest events of the tournament.