The 2026 World Cup continues its decisive phase on July 11th with the final two quarter-final matches. Following France and Spain's qualification for the semi-finals, all eyes are now on Norway vs. England and Argentina vs. Switzerland. Meanwhile, the FootProbability model analyzed 21 matches and identified 7 value bets, with an average EV of +30.7% and an average confidence level of 49.1%. This matchday therefore combines a major global fixture with several interesting opportunities in European and Asian leagues.
The match between Norway and England is the highlight of the day. The English enter this quarter-final as favorites, but Norway has already shown it can upset the top nations. The FootProbability model estimates England's chances of winning at 63.3%, compared to 18.7% for Norway and 18% for a draw. Despite this clear preference for England, the best opportunity doesn't lie in the final result.
The model favors the Over 2.5 goals market, with an estimated probability of 79.6%. The odds of 1.78 generate an expected value (EV) of +41.7%, making it the best FootProbability prediction for July 11th. The model score reaches 75/100, with four stars of confidence. The match projection leans towards a 1-2 score, while the probability of both teams scoring reaches 73.2%. All these indicators reinforce the hypothesis of an open and spectacular quarter-final.
This match promises a particularly interesting duel between a Norwegian side boasting strong attacking potential and an England team with superior squad depth. Norway might be forced to take more risks if they fall behind, which would further encourage a high-scoring affair. Conversely, England possesses the tools to exploit space and quickly turn the game around.
The other quarter-final of the day pits Argentina against Switzerland. While this matchup doesn't appear among the top picks identified in today's data, it remains crucial for the rest of the tournament. Argentina now represents the last hope for the Americas, while Switzerland continues its run marked by its solidity and ability to withstand pressure. The winner will join the winner of Norway vs. England in the semi-finals.
Outside of the World Cup, FootProbability identifies several interesting opportunities. In Norway, the match between Aalesund and Molde predicts a home victory. The model assigns Aalesund a 45% chance of success, with odds of 3.20 and an expected value (EV) of +44.1%. The predicted score of 2-1 suggests a potentially open match, with a probability of at least three goals.
In Finland, the match between Turku PS and AC Oulu also presents interesting value on the 1X2 market. The model gives Turku PS a 45.6% chance of winning, with odds of 2.90 and an EV of +32.2%. The match appears to be evenly contested, but home advantage and statistical projections give a slight edge to the home team.
Today's featured bet is on Ulytau vs. Kaisar. This time, FootProbability is predicting a tight match with an Under 2.5 goals prediction. The probability of Over 2.5 is only 31%, while the most likely score is 1-0. With odds of 1.86 and an EV of +28.4%, this selection seems consistent on a day when other major value bets are more focused on the 1X2 market.
The model also offers a 2-out-of-3 system based on Norway vs. England, Ulytau vs. Kaisar, and Aalesund vs. Molde. The goal is to combine three different profiles while limiting exposure to a single outcome. The system's average score reaches 66/100, with an average EV of +38%. This construction accurately reflects the FootProbability logic: diversifying markets while maintaining significant differences between estimated probabilities and offered odds.
July 11th thus presents a particularly rich profile. The quarter-final between Norway and England commands media attention, but the model's best opportunities are not limited to the World Cup. The Norwegian, Finnish, Kazakh, and South Korean leagues also offer several interesting gaps.
With 21 matches analyzed, 7 values detected, and an average EV exceeding 30%, FootProbability approaches this matchday with a larger selection than yesterday. The highlight, however, remains Norway vs. England, a match where the model anticipates a high tempo, multiple goals, and a possible English qualification after a spectacular game.