The 2026 World Cup continues with another day packed with international fixtures on July 1st, 2026. Several favorites take to the pitch in what promise to be hard-fought matches, while the Latvian league rounds out the day's schedule. As every morning, the FootProbability model has analyzed the matches to identify the best opportunities using probabilities, advanced statistics, and the Dixon-Coles method.
The day's main selection concerns the match between Belgium and Senegal. Two teams with strong attacking potential face off in a match where the model estimates an open, high-scoring encounter is the most likely scenario. Statistical projections highlight an interesting potential for goals, making this fixture the top prediction selected by FootProbability for this matchday.
England will then face the Democratic Republic of Congo in a match where the English are considered favorites. Despite this theoretical advantage, the model doesn't prioritize the winner's market but also considers an attacking projection. Statistics indicate that a match with multiple goals remains a credible scenario, even if the confidence level is moderate.
One of the most interesting analyses concerns the match between Mexico and Ecuador. This fixture has the highest value detected by the model, with a significant statistical advantage in the goals market. Such an estimate reflects high potential, but also a higher level of risk than other teams. This type of match perfectly illustrates FootProbability's philosophy, which primarily focuses on the discrepancies between the probabilities calculated by the model and the odds offered.
Alongside the World Cup, the Latvian league features a match between Tukums and Super Nova. Statistical projections give a slight advantage to the home team. Even though the predicted value remains lower than in international matches, this game is among the analyses selected by the model to complete the day's selection.
This July 1st matchday presents a different profile from previous ones. The model identified four values, but with a lower average EV, indicating that there are fewer truly significant opportunities. This approach confirms FootProbability's commitment to remaining selective and retaining only matches that meet its statistical criteria.
The FootProbability model continues to rely on thousands of historical data points to estimate the probabilities of winning, scoring, and value for each match. The analyses published daily do not aim to predict a result with certainty, but rather to identify scenarios offering the best balance between estimated probability and available odds.
Find free predictions, 1X2 probabilities, Over 2.5 and BTTS estimates, likely goalscorers, Value Bets identified by the model, and complete performance tracking every day on FootProbability. An approach based on statistics, transparency, and discipline to guide you through each matchday of football.