This Tuesday, October 13, 2026, FootProbability continues its statistical analysis with 46 matches studied and 19 value bets identified. Today, our model shows an average EV of +27.1% and an average confidence level of 52.8%. The English, Egyptian, and South African leagues, along with several international competitions, are among the matches analyzed.
Following a generally positive day on October 12, our model continues to identify discrepancies between calculated probabilities and the odds offered by bookmakers. Discover the "Strong Match," the day's top three opportunities, and other matchups to watch.
A look back at the results of October 12: a positive day.
Monday, October 12, ended with encouraging results for FootProbability. Out of the 25 predictions recorded in our history, 13 were winners, representing a success rate of 52%. With an identical theoretical stake placed on each selection, the return reached approximately +13.7%.
The Top 3 performed particularly well, with two winning picks out of three. Torino vs. Udinese ended 2–1, validating our "Over 2.5 goals" selection at odds of 2.10. Levante vs. Sevilla also confirmed our analysis of the attacking play, delivering a spectacular 3–3 draw and a winning bet at odds of 2.02.
Among other notable results, Coventry secured a 4–1 victory over Newcastle at odds of 3.11, while Future FC won their match 3–2 against Enppi, landing an "Over 2.5" bet at odds of 2.66.
The results also highlight areas for improvement. The "Under 2.5" market had a difficult day, with only two successful outcomes out of seven. This data is essential for measuring the model's performance and progressively refining our analyses.
Key Match on October 13: Richards Bay vs. Mamelodi Sundowns
Our top pick of the day comes from the South African Premier Soccer League, featuring the match between Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns. The FootProbability model favors the Both Teams To Score (BTTS Yes) market, with odds of 2.41.
The calculated probability reaches 61.1%, corresponding to a positive expected value of +47.4%. This selection achieves the day's highest score of 71/100, placing it at the top of our statistical rankings.
The model’s favored scenario is a match in which both teams find the back of the net, with a probable score of 1–1. This represents an interesting statistical opportunity, but the estimated probability does not guarantee a specific outcome.
FootProbability: BTTS Yes — Odds 2.41 — EV +47.4% — Model score 71/100.
FootProbability Top 3: the best opportunities for October 13
Our Top 3 comprises the three highest-ranked selections based on the model score, confidence, and value detected across available markets.
1. Richards Bay – Mamelodi Sundowns: BTTS Yes
Top spot goes to the match between Richards Bay and Mamelodi Sundowns. With an estimated probability of 61.1%, odds of 2.41, and an EV of +47.4%, this fixture holds the highest ranking score at 71/100. The model favors a 1-1 scoreline and anticipates the possibility of both teams scoring.
2. National Bank of Egypt – El Geish: Over 2.5 goals
We head to Egypt for the second pick, featuring National Bank of Egypt against El Geish. Our model selects the "Over 2.5 goals" market at odds of 2.40. The calculated EV stands at +27.0%, with a confidence level of 52.9% and a model score of 61/100.
The most likely exact score shown is 1–1, but this does not capture the full range of possible scenarios. The probability for the "Over 2.5 goals" market is derived by summing the probabilities of the various scorelines that feature at least three goals.
3. Cardiff – Watford: Under 2.5 goals
The third opportunity of the day involves Cardiff versus Watford in the English Championship. FootProbability selects the "Under 2.5 goals" market at odds of 2.43, with an EV of +30.8%, a confidence level of 53.8%, and a model score of 59/100.
A probable 1-1 scoreline aligns with the scenario for this selection. Despite the difficulties encountered yesterday in the "Under 2.5 goals" market, the model continues to evaluate each match based on its own probabilities, without automatically ruling out a market following a losing streak.
The other interesting value bets of the day
Beyond the top 3, several matchups among the 19 identified Value Bets deserve special attention.
In South Africa, the Orlando Pirates vs. TS Galaxy match shows a calculated EV of +72.4% for the "BTTS – Yes" market at odds of 3.18. Despite this high value, the model score remains limited to 56/100. This discrepancy serves as a reminder that high EV does not necessarily equate to the highest level of confidence.
In the Championship, the Stoke City vs. Middlesbrough match stands out in the home win market with odds of 3.43, an EV of +57.8%, and a model score of 50/100. In Egypt, the Al Ittihad vs. El Gouna FC match also offers notable value on the "Over 2.5 goals" market, with odds of 2.97 and an EV of +58.4%.
Finally, the match between USM Alger and JS Saoura is one to watch in the Algerian Ligue 1. The model favors "BTTS: Yes" at odds of 2.38, with an EV of +27.2% and a score of 57/100.
These selections represent theoretical opportunities to be examined on a case-by-case basis. A particularly high EV must always be weighed against the quality of the data and the reliability of the odds used.
Understanding the FootProbability strategy and value bets
FootProbability relies notably on statistical score modeling using a Poisson approach adjusted via the Dixon-Coles method. This method allows for the estimation of various probabilities across 1X2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets.
Our goal is not simply to target favorites, but to identify situations where the probability calculated by the model is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.
A "value bet" is therefore a selection with a positive expected value according to the model's estimates. However, a calculated positive EV guarantees neither a win nor actual profitability. That is why we track results over time to compare predictions with observed performance.
Performance monitoring to improve the model
The positive outcome of October 12 serves as an encouraging signal, but our approach relies primarily on the analysis of sufficiently large datasets. Success rates, return on investment, market-specific performance, and the results of top-ranked selections allow us to progressively evaluate the model's validity.
The optimizations made to FootProbability should be judged on their ability to sustainably improve the quality of probabilities and the selection of opportunities, rather than on a few favorable matchdays.
View our history and updated indicators on the Model Performance page, accessible via FootProbability.
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Conclusion: 19 value bets and a top 3 to follow.
For Tuesday, October 13, 2026, FootProbability presents 46 analyzed matches and 19 Value Bets, with an advertised average EV of +27.1%. Richards Bay vs. Mamelodi Sundowns tops our rankings, ahead of National Bank of Egypt vs. El Geish and Cardiff vs. Watford.
Following a positive day on October 12, we are continuing our work of analysis, results monitoring, and model refinement. Our aim remains to provide transparent predictions based on probabilities and statistical data.
Find all the matches, probabilities, and detailed analyses in the FootProbability member area, accessible for free.
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