The schedule for July 17, 2026, offers several particularly interesting matches for fans of statistical analysis. After studying 23 matches across various competitions, the FootProbability model identified several opportunities where the estimated probability is higher than that suggested by market odds.
Today's selection highlights a bet on the number of goals in Brazil, significant value in Sweden as well as a great opportunity in Mexico.
Bahia vs Chapecoense-SC: the best value bet of the day
The best opportunity detected by the model concerns the match between Bahia and Chapecoense-SC.
Statistical simulations predict a relatively tight match with a low probability of three or more goals. The Under 2.5 goals market shows a particularly attractive discrepancy between the probability calculated by the model and the odds offered, making it the best value bet of the day.
The most likely score is 1-0, confirming a cautious scenario where Bahia could make the difference without the match becoming spectacular. This selection receives a model score of 65/100 with an EV of +38.4%.
IFK Göteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna: big odds that attract attention
In Allsvenskan, the model detects an interesting opportunity on Brommapojkarna's away win.
Even though Gothenburg are playing at home, the probabilities calculated by FootProbability favor the visitors. The most likely score is 2-1 in favor of Brommapojkarna, while the high odds offer an exceptional EV of +70.4%.
This type of selection perfectly illustrates the philosophy of the model: to look for discrepancies between actual probabilities and market estimates rather than simply following favorites.
Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL: a great opportunity in Liga MX
In the Mexican league, Club Tijuana appears to be a very interesting selection.
FootProbability's calculations give a slight advantage to the home side with a probable score of 2-1. Here again, the market seems to underestimate Tijuana's chances of winning, generating an EV of +61.5%.
This match is one of the best opportunities of the day for players looking for bets with high expected value.
The match of the day: St. Louis City hosts Sporting Kansas City
In Major League Soccer, FootProbability also highlights St. Louis City.
Even though the value is lower than on the other selections, the probabilities remain heavily in favor of the American club. The model estimates nearly a 70% chance of victory for St. Louis City with a probable score of 2-0.
This selection is considered more of a bet on confidence than a strong value investment.
FootProbability predictions for July 17, 2026
July 17th offers an interesting mix of high-value and more conservative selections. Bahia stands out as the best opportunity thanks to its potential in the Under 2.5 goals market, while Brommapojkarna and Club Tijuana offer two attractive odds with a significant statistical advantage.
As always, FootProbability analyses are based on a model combining probabilities, advanced statistics and Value Bet research, in order to identify the most interesting opportunities of the day.
Find all the analyses, detailed probabilities, probable goalscorers and all the selections of the day directly on FootProbability.