This Thursday, August 20, 2026, the football schedule is particularly packed. FootProbability analyzes 47 matches today and identifies 22 Value Bets based on the probabilities calculated by its model and the available odds.
Between MLS, Europa League and Conference League, several matches stand out. Here are today's Match of the Day and FootProbability Top 3.
⭐ Minnesota United – Atlanta United: Strong match of the day
The best score in the model was Minnesota United FC – Atlanta United FC.
Prognosis: Under 2.5
Odds: 2.46
EV: +59.4%
Confidence: 48.6%
Model score: 63/100
Probable score: 1-0
This match is currently the highest-ranked selection according to FootProbability.
The MLS match is indeed scheduled within this August 20th window.
The EV of +59.4% indicates a significant difference between the probability estimated by the model and that corresponding to the available odds. This obviously does not guarantee that the bet will be successful.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for August 20, 2026
🥇 Minnesota United – Atlanta United
Under 2.5 @2.46
EV: +59.4%
Confidence: 48.6%
Score: 63/100
🥈 FC Sion – Ajax
FC Sion victory @4.10
EV: +101.6%
Confidence: 49.2%
Score: 60/100
This is the boldest selection of the Top 3. The odds of 4.10 partly explain the particularly high EV detected by the model.
The Conference League play-off Sion–Ajax is indeed listed by UEFA for this August 20th.
🥉 Sporting Kansas City – St. Louis City
Under 2.5 @2,60
EV : +32,7 %
Trust : 44,0 %
Score : 60/100
The derby completes the FootProbability Top 3.
📊 A day full of opportunities
The model now covers 47 matches, including 22 classified as Value Bets and 17 displaying a model score of at least 50/100.
Other interesting selections include:
- Portland Timbers – San Diego : Under 2.5 @3,25, EV +50,4 %, score 59/100 ;
- Benfica – Aarhus : Under 2.5 @3,40, EV +68,0 %, score 58/100 ;
- Inter Turku – FC Copenhagen : Under 2.5 @2,32, EV +36,8 %, score 57/100 ;
- Los Angeles Galaxy – San Jose: San Jose victory @3.10, EV +38.2%, score 59/100.
What is a Value Bet?
A Value Bet appears when the probability estimated by the model is greater than that implicitly represented by the available odds.
A positive EV is therefore not a certain prediction. It indicates that, based on the calculated probabilities, the proposed price may have an interesting theoretical value.
This is why FootProbability combines several indicators: EV, confidence, actual odds and model score.
Why not simply choose the largest EV?
Because a very high EV can also be associated with a particularly uncertain selection.
August 20th provides good examples. Some selections show EVs exceeding +100%, but are still classified as Match watched when other criteria are insufficient.
The FootProbability ranking therefore seeks to highlight a compromise between detected value and statistical quality, rather than automatically selecting the highest odds.
🎯 The Top 3 to Remember
🥇 Minnesota United – Atlanta United : Under 2.5 @2,46
🥈 FC Sion – Ajax : Sion @4,10
🥉 Sporting Kansas City – St. Louis City : Under 2.5 @2,60
As the odds can fluctuate, the calculated value may also change during the day.
FootProbability predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Sports betting involves a risk of loss. Gamble responsibly.