The day of Wednesday, August 26, 2026 offers several interesting matches to analyze, between Asian and European championships, Saudi Pro League and UEFA competitions.
The statistical model FootProbability analyzed 12 matches and identified 6 Value Bets, with an average EV of +21.2% on the opportunities detected.
One selection stands out in particular today: Incheon United's victory against FC Anyang.
⭐ Today's Top Match: FC Anyang – Incheon United
Prediction: Incheon United win
Odds: 2.26
EV: +21.2%
Model confidence: 53.7%
Model score: 60/100
Probable score: 1-2
This is the selection that obtained the best FootProbability score of the day.
The model estimates that the probability of a victory for Incheon United is higher than what the available odds of 2.26 suggest.
With a confidence of 53.7%, an EV of +21.2% and a model score of 60/100, Incheon achieves the best balance between estimated probability and potential value.
With a confidence of 53.7%, an EV of +21.2% and a model score of 60/100, Incheon achieves the best balance between estimated probability and potential value.
🏆 The Top 3 FootProbability
Three selections emerge today when combining the model score, confidence, and detected value.
🥇 FC Anyang – Incheon United
Prediction: Incheon United win
Odds: 2.26
EV: +21.2%
Confidence: 53.7%
Model score: 60/100
This is the most balanced selection of the Top 3 and the Match of the Day.
🥈 Tammeka – Flora Tallinn
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.48
EV: +28.4%
Confidence: 40.6%
Model score: 57/100
Probable score: 1-1
The model here favors a relatively closed match.
The odds of 2.48 yield a theoretical EV of +28.4%. However, confidence remains limited to 40.6%, suggesting a degree of caution despite the detected value.
🥉 Al Diriyah – Al Kholood
Pronostic : Victoire d’Al Kholood
Side : 4,12
EV : +32,0 %
Confidence: 42,6 %
Model score: 54/100
Probable score: 1-2
This is the most daring selection of the Top 3.
The odds of 4.12 largely explain the particularly high EV of +32%.
FootProbability does not consider Al Kholood an absolute favorite: the model mainly considers that the proposed odds could be too high compared to his estimated probability of victory.
This is a key distinction in the analysis of a Value Bet.
💎 Other Value Bets to Watch
The Top 3 is not the only place where the model detects value.
Gangwon FC – Gwangju FC
Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes
Odds: 2.11
EV: +18.8%
Model Score: 52/100
Probable Score: 1-1
The scenario favored by the model predicts at least one goal from each team.
Viking – Dinamo Zagreb
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.34
EV: +24.5%
Model score: 49/100
Probable score: 1-1
A particularly interesting meeting in the context of European qualifications.
Despite a significant EV of +24.5%, the model score of 49/100 keeps this selection behind the Top 3.
Lyon – Fenerbahçe
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.02
EV: +12.7%
Model score: 39/100
Probable score: 1-1
The model still detects positive value, but with a lower confidence level than the best opportunities of the day.
This selection should therefore be considered with greater caution.
🧩 An interesting Top 3 for a 2 out of 3 system
Les trois premières sélections peuvent également être utilisées dans un système 2 sur 3 :
- Incheon United wins — odds 2.26
- Tammeka – Flora: Under 2.5 — rating 2.48
- Al Kholood wins — odds 4.12
The system displays an average model score of 57/100 and an average EV of +27.2%.
The advantage of a 2 out of 3 system is that it does not require all three selections to be winning simultaneously in order to obtain a return on certain combinations.
This obviously does not eliminate the risk: the odds and confidence levels show that several selections remain difficult.
📊 Not all predictions are value bets
This is also one of the important lessons learned from the day.
FootProbability can identify the statistically most likely scenario of a match without considering that there is a betting opportunity.
For example :
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad
Model prediction: BTTS Yes
Odds: 1.71
EV: -4.0%
The model can therefore favour the scenario “both teams score” while considering that the proposed odds do not offer sufficient value.
Conversely, when no real odds are available, FootProbability avoids artificially classifying the match as a Value Bet.
This distinction between probable prediction and bet with positive expected value constitutes one of the fundamental principles of the FootProbability method.
🎯 What can we learn from the predictions of August 26th?
The main selection of the day is:
⭐ FC Anyang – Incheon United: Incheon United win at 2.26
It achieves the best score of the model with 60/100, a confidence of 53.7% and an EV of +21.2%.
Behind them, Tammeka – Flora Tallinn Under 2.5 and the victory of Al Kholood complete the Top 3.
In total, FootProbability today detects 6 Value Bets out of the 12 matches analyzed.
As always, a Value Bet is not a guarantee of winning. It simply indicates that, according to the model's estimates, the calculated probability is more favorable than that implicitly represented by the available odds.
👉 Retrouvez l’ensemble des analyses, probabilités, scores probables et Value Bets dans l’Espace Membre FootProbability.
The predictions presented are based on a statistical model and are never a guarantee of results. Sports betting involves a risk of loss. Gamble responsibly.