This Saturday, October 10, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 200 football matches across numerous European and international leagues. The model identifies 75 value bets, with an average EV of +18.0% and an average confidence level of 52.9%.
With 33 matches achieving a model score of at least 50/100, this round offers a wide range of statistical opportunities. The featured match takes us to Serbia for Radnicki 1923 vs. FK Crvena Zvezda, while our top three also includes Inter Milan and Rangers.
📊 Results of the predictions for October 9, 2026
Friday, October 9, allowed FootProbability to return to a positive record following the previous day's difficulties.
Of the 24 predictions currently recorded in our history, 13 were winning and 11 were losing, representing a success rate of 54.2%. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of one unit per selection, the overall result is +3.88 units, yielding an ROI of +16.2%.
The "Value Bets" recorded 12 winning picks out of 21, yielding a theoretical profit of +4.22 units and an ROI of +20.1%. The "Top 3" achieved a one-in-three success rate, thanks to the FC Nordsjælland vs. Odense match, where the "Under 2.5 goals" bet at odds of 2.66 came in.
The Match Fort Veres Rivne – Shakhtar Donetsk failed after a 3-0 victory for Shakhtar, which invalidated our BTTS Yes. On the other hand, several winning picks like Avellino at 2.61, SJK at 2.62 and Incheon United – Pohang Steelers at 2.41 contributed to the positive result of Value Bets.
These results remain those currently recorded in our tracker. They do not constitute a guarantee of future performance.
⭐ Strong match of October 10: Radnicki 1923 – FK Crvena Zvezda
The Fort FootProbability featured match takes place in the Serbian SuperLiga, with Radnicki 1923 facing FK Crvena Zvezda—Red Star Belgrade.
Our prediction: double chance 1X — Radnicki 1923 wins or draws.
- Side : 2,54
- Model score: 77/100
- Estimated EV: +91,5 %
- Confidence: 75,4 %
- Probable score: 1-1
This selection achieves the day's best model score. FootProbability identifies a significant discrepancy between its estimated probability for the 1X double chance and the odds offered.
The 1X market covers two outcomes: a win for Radnicki 1923 or a draw. A Red Star victory would result in a loss for the bet.
The +91.5% EV represents a particularly high theoretical estimate. It therefore warrants close monitoring within our historical data, without being interpreted as a probability of winning or a guarantee of profit.
🏆 FootProbability Top 3 for Saturday, October 10
🥇 Radnicki 1923 – FK Crvena Zvezda: double chance 1X
Model score: 77/100 | Odds: 2.54 | EV: +91.5% | Confidence: 75.4%
Top spot goes to the Serbian "Strong Match." The model favors a resilient performance by Radnicki 1923 against Red Star, with the possibility of a home win or a share of the points.
🥈 Inter Milan – Parma: BTTS Yes
Model score: 75/100 | Odds: 2.07 | EV: +29.0% | Confidence: 62.3%
Our second pick comes from the Italian Serie A. Foot Probability selects the "both teams to score" market, with a probable scoreline of 1-1.
Despite Inter being the favorite to win the match, our model favors the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" option here. The two markets address different questions: an Inter victory does not necessarily imply that Parma will score.
🥉 Rangers – Kilmarnock : Under 2,5
Model score: 65/100 | Odds: 3.08 | EV: +77.3% | Confidence: 57.6%
We head to Scotland for our third pick. The model identifies statistical value in a match with fewer than three goals, with a probable scoreline of 1–1.
The odds of 3.08 and the high EV reflect a significant gap between the model’s estimate and the market’s. This prediction remains exposed to the risk of a more open match than anticipated.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: an average score of 72/100
Saturday’s "2-out-of-3" system covers the top three picks: Radnicki 1923 vs. FK Crvena Zvezda (Double Chance 1X at 2.54), Inter vs. Parma (Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.07), and Rangers vs. Kilmarnock (Under 2.5 goals at 3.08).
The average score reaches 72/100, while the estimated average EV stands at +65.9%. These are model indicators, not probabilities of the ticket succeeding.
The system consists of three doubles. Two winning selections can generate a return, though not necessarily a profit, depending on the odds and stake distribution. Three losing selections result in the loss of the stake.
💎 Value bets to follow among the 75 selections
Beyond the top three, FootProbability identifies numerous interesting matches across various leagues. We distinguish between the highest-rated picks and more speculative opportunities.
Portugal: Marítimo, Casa Pia and Académico Viseu
Marítimo vs. FC Porto shows up as a "BTTS – Yes" pick at odds of 2.22, with a model score of 63/100 and an estimated EV of +24.7%. The model envisions a scenario where both teams find the back of the net.
Casa Pia vs. Santa Clara is selected for "Over 2.5" at odds of 2.32, with a score of 58/100 and an EV of +24.3%. Académico Viseu vs. Estoril rounds out the Portuguese selections with "Under 2.5" at 1.87, though with a more conservative score of 42/100.
Tunisia vs. Bosnia: several BTTS markets
In Tunisia, the ES Tunis vs. Olympique Béja match offers a "Both Teams to Score – Yes" bet at odds of 2.91, with a score of 59/100 and an EV of +57.0%. The Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs. CS Sfaxien match also features among the value bets, with "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.78 and an EV of +49.1%.
In Bosnia, the Borac Banja Luka vs. BSK Banja Luka match is selected for "BTTS: Yes" at odds of 2.50, with a score of 59/100 and an EV of +32.7%.
These relatively high odds highlight the importance of distinguishing the estimated statistical value from the actual success rate, which will need to be assessed after the matches.
Austria, Romania, and Japan
Grazer AK vs. Red Bull Salzburg is selected for Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.49, with a model score of 59/100 and an EV of +30.9%.
In Romania, FC Botoșani – UTA Arad appears on a home victory at 2.30, with a score of 59/100 and an EV of +25.9%. FCSB – Oțelul is also present on the BTTS Yes at 1.76, with a score of 54/100.
In Japan, the Cerezo Osaka vs. Yokohama F. Marinos match has been selected for the "Under 2.5 goals" market at odds of 2.10, with a score of 59/100 and an EV of +19.5%.
Spain, France, and major European leagues
In the Spanish Liga, the Barcelona vs. Getafe match has been selected for the "BTTS – Yes" market at odds of 2.17, with a model score of 56/100 and an EV of +21.2%.
In France, the Paris Saint-Germain vs. Le Mans match stands out for the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" market at odds of 2.00, with a score of 55/100 and an EV of +15.7%. Lille vs. Le Havre is also selected for "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 1.79, though with a more modest score of 48/100.
In Croatia, the Hajduk Split vs. Dinamo Zagreb match draws attention with a home win at odds of 2.93, a score of 52/100, and an EV of +47.7%.
In the English Championship, the Watford vs. Burnley match offers a home win at odds of 2.81, with a score of 51/100 and an EV of +37.8%.
Other international opportunities
Among the other matches, Guayaquil City vs. Emelec is selected for the "1X" double chance at 1.44, with a score of 60/100. Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bnei Sakhnin is selected for "BTTS – Yes" at 2.25, with a score of 57/100.
The model also identifies a home win for Turku PS vs. FF Jaro at 2.05, Over 2.5 goals for Amal Tiznit vs. Difaa El Jadida at 2.54, and Over 2.5 goals for Tigre vs. Banfield at 2.35.
These matches illustrate the diversity of markets analyzed by FootProbability: home win, double chance, BTTS, and Over/Under 2.5.
⭐ The three favorites of the day
FootProbability identifie également trois favoris confirmés par son modèle, indépendamment du classement des Value Bets.
FC Lugano – FC Luzern: FC Lugano win. The estimated probability is 55.7%, with odds of 1.58.
Inter vs. Parma: Inter win. The model estimates the probability of this outcome at 54.3%, with odds of 1.12. These very low odds should not be mistaken for a guarantee of victory.
Universidad Católica – Audax Italiano: victory for Universidad Católica. The estimated probability reaches 54.2%, for odds of 1.50.
These favorites are presented as prime options in the 1N2 market, but their inclusion in this category does not necessarily mean they represent value bets.
📈 What we’ll be watching today
With 200 matches analyzed and 75 value bets, this matchday represents a significant volume of predictions to compare against the results.
We will focus in particular on the top three selections, matches with very high EV, and performance differences across markets. We will also continue to compare the results of predictions scoring above 50/100 with those of lower-rated selections.
The goal remains to enhance the transparency of Foot Probability through historical tracking of results, success rates, and theoretical ROIs calculated based on fixed stakes.
Find all the matches in our member area and detailed summaries on our Performance page.
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