This Sunday, October 11, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 167 matches and identifies 59 Value Bets, with an estimated average EV of +18.9% and an average confidence level of 52.6%. The model assigns a score of at least 50/100 to 23 matches. Discover our Top Pick, the Top 3, the day's favorites, and the key opportunities identified.
📈 FootProbability Results – October 10, 2026
Saturday ended on a positive note for FootProbability. Out of **69 tracked predictions, 32 were winners**, representing a success rate of 46.4%. Value Bets recorded 31 wins from 66 selections, yielding a theoretical profit of +5.38 units and an ROI of **+8.2%**. The "Top 3" category finished with one win out of three and an ROI of -46.0%. Overall, the results show a total of **+4.00 units and a theoretical ROI of +5.8%**, based on a constant stake of one unit per prediction.
Among the top winning picks were ES Tunis vs. Olympique Béja (BTTS Yes @2.91), Avispa Fukuoka vs. Fagiano Okayama (Avispa win @2.91), Tobol Kostanay vs. FC Astana (Tobol win @2.86), and Guayaquil City vs. Emelec (Guayaquil win @2.80). Unfortunately, the featured match between Radnicki 1923 and Red Star did not come through.
⭐ Strong Match: Hapoel Ramat Gan – Beitar Jerusalem
In the Israeli league, FootProbability selects the Hapoel Ramat Gan vs. Beitar Jerusalem match with a 1X double chance bet at odds of 2.44. This fixture achieves the day's highest model score of 76/100, with an estimated EV of +80.0% and a confidence level of 73.8%. The predicted score is 1-1.
Our model detects a significant discrepancy between its estimated probability and the market odds. The "Double Chance 1X" bet covers a win for Hapoel Ramat Gan or a draw. This opportunity offers high theoretical value but remains subject to the uncertainties of football.
🏆 FootProbability Top 3 for October 11
🥇 Hapoel Ramat Gan – Beitar Jerusalem : double chance 1X à 2,44, score modèle 76/100, EV +80,0 % et confiance 73,8 %. Notre Match Fort occupe la première place du classement.
🥈 Austin – Nashville SC : Under 2,5 buts à 2,11, score modèle 66/100, EV +22,6 % et confiance 58,1 %. Le modèle privilégie une rencontre avec moins de trois buts, avec un score probable de 1-1.
🥉 ES Sahel – CS Hammam-Lif : BTTS Oui à 2,40, score modèle 65/100, EV +35,1 % et confiance 56,3 %. Le modèle estime que les deux équipes peuvent marquer, avec un score probable de 1-1.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system
The FootProbability system covers the three Top 3 matches: Hapoel Ramat Gan (1X), Austin vs. Nashville SC (Under 2.5), and ES Sahel vs. CS Hammam-Lif (BTTS: Yes). It shows an average model score of 69/100 and an average EV of +45.9% for the three individual selections.
This system involves three "doubles" and ensures at least one winning combination when two predictions are correct. However, a winning double does not guarantee an overall profit.
🛡️ Today's favorites
Vikingur Reykjavik – IA Akranes: Vikingur Reykjavik victory at 1.41, with a model probability of 63.2%. Atletico Nacional – Deportivo Pasto: Atletico Nacional win at 1.20, with an estimated probability of 59.6%. FC Levadia Tallinn – Paide: Levadia Tallinn win at 1.36, with a probability of 57.1%.
These teams are favorites according to the markets and are included in the model's selection. However, their odds do not necessarily offer positive value when compared to the probabilities calculated by FootProbability.
💎 Sunday's other value bets
In **Tunisia**, two matches catch our eye: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs. AS Marsa, with Over 2.5 goals at 2.56 (score 55/100, EV +36.8%), and ES Zarzis vs. ES Hammam-Sousse, with Over 2.5 goals at 2.78 (score 54/100, EV +44.6%).
In Hungary, the Zalaegerszegi TE vs. Nyiregyhaza match presents an opportunity to bet on a home win at odds of 2.58, with a model score of 57/100 and an EV of +38.1%. In Argentina, Platense vs. Argentinos Juniors offers value on "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.66, with a score of 55/100 and an EV of +42.4%.
In Bosnia, the Čelik vs. FK Sarajevo match offers odds of 3.43 for a Čelik win (score 50/100, EV +62.3%). In the Netherlands, the PEC Zwolle vs. Cambuur match presents odds of 3.40 for a Cambuur win (score 50/100, EV +60.7%). These two high-odds selections should be approached with caution.
Finally, the **Canadian Premier League** is now among the competitions tracked by FootProbability. The Pacific FC vs. Atlético Ottawa match shows a Pacific FC win at odds of 3.00, with a model score of 46/100 and an estimated EV of +39.5%.
🔎 The FootProbability method
FootProbability uses a statistical model to estimate match probabilities and compare them with available odds. The model score ranks opportunities, confidence serves as a separate indicator, and EV measures the estimated theoretical value of a selection. None of these indicators guarantees a winning outcome.
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⚽ Conclusion
With **167 matches analyzed and 59 value bets**, FootProbability presents a new round of statistical analysis. Our featured match pits Hapoel Ramat Gan against Beitar Jerusalem, featuring a "1X" double chance at odds of 2.44 and a model score of 76/100. Austin vs. Nashville SC and ES Sahel vs. CS Hammam-Lif round out our top three.
Find all analyses and tracked results at https://footprobability.com/.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
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