Following a successful day on September 10—highlighted by the win of **Bokelj**, the top pick from the Top FootProbability list—the model returns this Friday, September 11, with significantly broader coverage.
On the agenda today: 65 matches analyzed, 11 Value Bets, an average EV of +22.6%, and an average confidence level of 46.2%.
📊 Results of the September 10th predictions
Yesterday’s results were mixed, though there was a notable success with the main selection.
🏆 Bokelj delivers at @2.89
Bokelj – Otrant-Olympic : 2-1
FootProbability avait placé Bokelj vainqueur en tête de ses sélections. Le pari passe avec une cote finale enregistrée à 2,89. ✅
This is exactly the type of selection we are looking for: a probability deemed higher than the one implicitly estimated by the market, with odds high enough to be attractive.
On the other hand, the other Value Bets recorded in the visible history fared worse:
Austin – Colorado Rapids : 1-1 ❌
New York City FC – New England : 1-2 ❌
Chicago Fire – Inter Miami : 1-1 ❌
Portland Timbers – St. Louis City : 2-2 ❌
Arsenal Tivat – Mladost DG : 0-1 ❌
A day that serves as another reminder that a Value Bet is never synonymous with a winning bet. EV measures a theoretical advantage—the gap between the model's calculated probability and the odds offered—not the certainty of the outcome.
🧩 Tip 2 of 3: 1 pick out of 3
We also checked the three matches making up the system proposed yesterday.
Panathinaikos 3-1 Kifisia
➡️ BTTS Oui @2,20 : ✅
USM Alger 2-0 JS El Biar
➡️ BTTS Oui @2,17 : ❌
Como 4-1 RB Leipzig
➡️ Under 2,5 @2,46 : ❌
The result is therefore 1/3, and the 2-out-of-3 system is a loss.
We deliberately include these results in our performance records: FootProbability’s goal is to measure the model’s performance over time, rather than selecting only favorable matchdays.
⚽ Predictions for September 11, 2026
The day is much more packed, featuring:
65 matches analyzed • 11 Value Bets • Average EV +22.6% • Average confidence 46.2%.
Several leagues are represented, including those of France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Japan, Armenia, and Saudi Arabia.
⭐ Strong Match: Van – BKMA
The FootProbability Strong Match for September 11 takes us to Armenia.
Van – BKMA
🎯 Prediction: Victoire de Van
💰 Rating: 3,32
📈 EV : +60,7 %
⭐ Model score: 57/100
🧠 Confiance : 48,4 %
Here, the model detects a significant discrepancy between its own estimate and the odds offered for a home win.
With odds exceeding 3.30, the potential is attractive, though the confidence level naturally calls for a measured approach.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability
The model's top three picks today are all home wins.
🥇 Van – BKMA
➡️ Victoire de Van @3,32
⭐ Score : 57/100
📈 EV : +60,7 %
🧠 Confiance : 48,4 %
🥈 Venezia – Fiorentina
➡️ Victoire de Venezia @3,03
⭐ Score : 57/100
📈 EV : +45,5 %
🧠 Confiance : 48,0 %
🥉 Nancy – Reims
➡️ Victoire de Nancy @3,00
⭐ Score : 57/100
📈 EV : +45,3 %
🧠 Confiance : 48,4 %
All three ratings are high. We must therefore especially see this Top 3 as the three most interesting differences detected by the model, and not as three classic favorites.
🧩 System 2 out of 3 for today
Following yesterday’s system failure, there is no change to the method: we are sticking to the same criteria and allowing the results to accumulate over time.
1️⃣ Pumas – León
➡️ Under 2,5 buts @2,06
Score : 66/100
EV : +21,9 %
Confidence: 59,2 %
2️⃣ MC Oran – Témouchent
➡️ Over 2,5 buts @2,50
Score : 62/100
EV : +31,3 %
Confidence: 52,5 %
3️⃣ APR – JSK
➡️ Over 2,5 buts @2,46
Score : 61/100
EV : +29,1 %
Confidence: 52,5 %
The system shows an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +27.4%. FootProbability suggests a total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three double bets.
🛡️ The logical favorites for September 11
This category is deliberately different from Value Bets: here, we look for market favorites whose superiority is also confirmed by the model.
The first is:
Cambrian & Clydach – Holywell
✅ Cambrian & Clydach gagne @1,42
Probabilité modèle : 56,5 %
Il est accompagné de :
Beşiktaş – Erzurumspor FK
✅ Beşiktaş gagne @1,20
Probabilité : 54,5 %
And :
Riga – Auda
✅ Riga gagne @1,30
Probabilité : 50,3 %.
These selections follow a different logic than the Top 3: less focus on seeking high odds, and more on identifying a favorite that aligns with the model's probabilities.
🔎 A few odds to watch
La journée présente également plusieurs écarts particulièrement élevés.
KV Mechelen – Anderlecht: victory for Mechelen @3.90, EV +87.3%.
Kyoto Sanga – Kashiwa Reysol: Kyoto victory @3.96, EV +67.6%.
And for Al-Faisaly vs. Al-Ittihad, the data even points to an Al-Faisaly win at odds of 4.26, with a calculated EV of +101.4%.
With such significant discrepancies, verifying the actual odds available from bookmakers is essential before drawing any conclusions. Outdated or anomalous odds can significantly inflate the calculated EV.
📈 A new day to measure the model
September 10th perfectly illustrates the FootProbability philosophy: an excellent pick at odds of 2.89 can coexist with several losing predictions.
The objective is not to claim to predict each result, but to check on a sufficiently large volume whether the probabilities calculated by the model make it possible to identify interesting odds in the long term.
This **September 11**, the **65 matches analyzed and 11 Value Bets detected** offer yet another data-rich day to follow.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
Sports betting involves risks. Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.