On Monday, October 12, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 57 football matches and identifies 27 Value Bets across various European and international leagues. The model shows an average EV of +18.5% and an average confidence level of 53.3%.
On the agenda: Torino vs. Udinese as the featured match, a top 3 comprising three European fixtures, a "2-out-of-3" system, and several opportunities to watch. All selections are based on model-calculated probabilities, available odds, and the estimated value of each market.
📊 A look back at the predictions for October 11
The tracking of Value Bets for Sunday, October 11, remains provisional, as not all results have yet been entered into the FootProbability tracker.
Of the **22 selections currently recorded**, 11 are winning and 11 are losing, representing a success rate of **50%**. Based on a constant theoretical stake of one unit per pick, the result stands at **+0.50 units**, corresponding to a **provisional ROI of +2.3%**.
Several successful bets are worth highlighting: Nice vs. Strasbourg, with a Nice win at 2.30; Piast Gliwice vs. Widzew Łódź, with a Piast win at 2.57; and Radnik Bijeljina vs. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, with "Over 2.5 goals" at 2.19.
The Under 2.5 markets also performed well in this sample, notably with Bochum vs. Arminia Bielefeld, Tokyo Verdy vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima, and Randers vs. Viborg.
This tally is not final. The statistics will be updated once the other available results have been incorporated.
⭐ Strong Match: Torino – Udinese
The Fort FootProbability featured match for October 12 pits Torino against Udinese in the Italian Serie A. The model favors the Over 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.10, with a model score of 71/100, an estimated EV of +26.1%, and a confidence level of 60.0%.
This selection is based on the discrepancy identified between the probability of seeing at least three goals and the implied probability of the offered odds. The most likely exact score indicated by the model is 1–1; this is a single projection that does not, on its own, capture the full range of possible scenarios.
The "Over 2.5" bet remains exposed to fluctuations in the match's tempo and the attacking efficiency of both teams.
🏆 FootProbability Top 3 for October 12
🥇 Torino – Udinese : Over 2,5 buts à 2,10. Avec un score modèle de 71/100, une EV de +26,1 % et une confiance de 60,0 %, cette rencontre occupe la première place du classement.
🥈 Levante – Sevilla : Over 2,5 buts à 2,02. Le modèle attribue à cette sélection un score de 68/100, une EV de +22,6 % et une confiance de 60,7 %. L’intérêt de ce pronostic repose sur la valeur estimée du marché des buts.
🥉 AEK Larnaca – Omonia Aradippou : Under 2,5 buts à 2,10. Cette troisième sélection présente un score de 61/100, une EV de +21,0 % et une confiance de 57,6 %. Contrairement aux deux premiers matchs, le modèle privilégie ici une rencontre avec moins de trois buts.
These three predictions make up the day's Top 3, ranked according to FootProbability indicators. Their positive EV represents a mathematical estimate, not a guarantee of the outcome.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: the three Top 3 selections
FootProbability also offers a "2 out of 3" system based on the Torino–Udinese, Levante–Sevilla, and AEK Larnaca–Omonia Aradippou matches.
The system comprises three doubles: Torino with Levante, Torino with AEK Larnaca, and Levante with AEK Larnaca. It shows an average model score of 67/100 and an average selection EV of +23.2%.
The suggested total stake displayed in the Member Area is €3 to €5, distributed across the three "double" bets. Two winning predictions are required to win a "double" bet, but this does not necessarily guarantee a net profit, as that depends on the odds and the stake distribution.
🛡️ The three favorites of the day
The top pick is IF Elfsborg against Halmstad, with a home win offered at 1.30 and a model-based probability of 53.5%.
The second is América de Cali vs. Independiente Medellín, with an América de Cali win at 1.75 and an estimated probability of 52.2%.
Finally, Malmö FF vs. Kalmar FF rounds out the selection, with a Malmö win at 1.72 and a model-based probability of 51.3%.
These teams are among the favorites identified in the Member Area. However, their calculated probabilities do not, on their own, justify the odds offered: these favorites should not be confused with validated Value Bets.
💰 Other value bets to watch
In Egypt, several matches show interesting discrepancies according to the model. El Mokawloon vs. Masr—with "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.59 and an EV of +35.0%—and Future FC vs. Enppi—also featuring "Over 2.5 goals" at 2.59 with an EV of +34.8%—are among the day's opportunities.
Still in the Egyptian Premier League, the **Smouha SC – Ghazl El Mehalla** match shows an "Over 2.5 goals" option at odds of **3.28**, with an EV of **+64.3%** and a model score of **50/100**. This high EV comes with higher odds and, consequently, a significant risk of loss.
In Serbia, the **Mladost Lucani – OFK Beograd** match stands out with a home win at **2.70**, an EV of **+39.6%**, and a score of **53/100**.
In Algeria, the model selects **JS El Biar vs. CR Belouizdad** (Over 2.5 goals) at **2.49**, with an EV of **+30.2%** and a score of **54/100**.
Finally, in Sweden, the IF Elfsborg vs. Halmstad match also offers a pick that differs from the favorites: Under 2.5 goals at 2.31, with an EV of +24.6% and a model score of 59/100.
📈 How FootProbability identifies opportunities
FootProbability relies on statistical modeling of matches—specifically a Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson approach—to estimate probabilities for outcomes, goal markets, and possible scores.
EV (Expected Value) represents the estimated theoretical value of a bet based on its probability and odds. The model score (out of 100) is used to rank opportunities according to several criteria, while confidence corresponds to the estimated probability of the selected scenario.
These indicators must be interpreted separately. A high EV does not imply that the bet is a sure thing, and a single winning selection is not enough to validate the model's accuracy.
Performance is tracked over time to evaluate actual results and progressively improve the selection of value bets.
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⚽ Conclusion: predictions for October 12
With **57 matches analyzed and 27 Value Bets**, FootProbability presents another round of statistical analysis. The top pick—**Torino vs. Udinese (Over 2.5 goals at 2.10)**—leads the Top 3, alongside Levante vs. Sevilla and AEK Larnaca vs. Omonia Aradippou.
The results for October 11 remain provisional pending full synchronization of the tracker. Transparency in tracking, performance analysis, and risk management remain at the heart of the FootProbability method.
Play like FootProbability: analyze the odds, compare the odds, and maintain a responsible approach.
🔞 For adults only. Sports betting carries the risk of financial loss. No prediction guarantees a win.