This Wednesday, October 14, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 51 football matches across various leagues and international competitions. Our statistical model has identified 17 Value Bets, with an average Expected Value (EV) of +16.6% and an average confidence level of 52.2%.
On the agenda: a high-profile match in the AGCFF Gulf Champions League, three picks highlighted by the model, a "2-out-of-3" multiple bet, and several opportunities to watch in Asia, the Americas, and Africa.
FootProbability’s objective remains the same: to compare the probabilities estimated by our model with available odds in order to identify potentially attractive discrepancies, without ever treating a prediction as a sure thing.
⭐ Highlight match of the day: Al-Duhail SC – Al-Shabab
Football Prediction: Both Teams to Score (BTTS Yes)
- Side : 2,27
- Expected Value : +27,6 %
- Model confidence: 56,2 %
- Model score: 62/100
- Most likely score: 1-1
For this AGCFF Gulf Champions League match, FootProbability favors the "both teams to score" market.
The probability estimated by our model reaches 56.2%, whereas the odds of 2.27 correspond to an implied probability of approximately 44.1%. This discrepancy explains the positive value detected.
A 1-1 scoreline emerges as the most likely individual outcome. However, the match could still unfold differently; a favorable probability never guarantees a winning bet.
With a score of 62/100, Al-Duhail vs. Al-Shabab is the top opportunity highlighted today.
🏆 FootProbability Top 3 for October 14
The Top 3 brings together the three best selections listed in the Member Area, based on the model's rankings.
🥇 Al-Duhail SC – Al-Shabab: BTTS Yes
Rating 2.27 · EV +27.6% · Confidence 56.2% · Model score 62/100
This match takes the top spot thanks to its model score and the discrepancy identified between the estimated probability and the odds.
🥈 Kashiwa Reysol – Port FC: BTTS Yes
Rating 1.89 · EV +11.5% · Confidence 59.0% · Model score 52/100
For this AFC Champions League Elite match, the model also favors the "both teams to score" outcome. The confidence level of 59% is higher than that of the "Strong Match" pick, but the estimated value is lower.
🥉 CF Montreal – Atlanta United FC: Under 2.5 goals
Rating 2.36 · EV +20.1% · Confidence 50.9% · Model score 50/100
In Major League Soccer, FootProbability anticipates a relatively tight match. A 1-1 scoreline appears to be the most likely scenario, although the model's confidence level remains close to 50%.
These three selections have a positive EV based on the data available at the time of the analysis. Their presence in the top three does not mean they are certain to win.
🧩 2-out-of-3 multiple system: the model's selections
In addition to the Top 3, FootProbability offers a "2 out of 3" system consisting of three matches.
Al-Duhail SC – Al-Shabab: BTTS Yes at 2.27. The model assigns this selection an EV of +27.6%, a confidence level of 56.2%, and a score of 62/100.
LASK Linz – Liverpool: Under 2.5 goals at 2.98. This pick shows an EV of +76.1%, a confidence level of 59.1%, and a model score of 60/100.
Feyenoord – Como: Under 2.5 goals at 2.84. The model estimates an EV of +65.9%, with 58.4% confidence and a score of 60/100.
The system shows an average model score of 61/100 and an average EV of +56.5% across the three selections. This latter figure is an average of the individual EVs, not the calculated expected return of the entire system.
The "2 out of 3" principle involves playing all three possible doubles. Two winning selections result in a winning double, but this does not guarantee an overall profit; that depends on the odds and the stakes.
The members' area suggests a total amount of €3 to €5, split across the three doubles bets. This is merely a suggestion and does not constitute an obligation to play.
The particularly high EV values for the LASK–Liverpool and Feyenoord–Como matches should be interpreted with caution. They may indicate a significant discrepancy between the model and the odds, but also warrant verifying market availability and data quality.
⭐ Pick of the day: Junior – Deportivo Pereira
For this Colombian league match, the market favorite according to FootProbability is Junior, with odds of 1.22.
The model estimates its probability of victory at 50,6 %.
Despite his status as the bookmaker's favorite, these odds correspond to an implied probability of approximately 82%. Therefore, it does not constitute a "value bet" based on the win probability provided by the model.
This distinction is essential: a favorite is not necessarily a good value bet.
Moreover, for the same match, the model identifies another opportunity: BTTS Yes at 2.00, with an EV of +5.9% and a score of 40/100.
💰 Other Value Bets for October 14
Beyond the highlighted matches, FootProbability has identified several opportunities in the competitions it tracks.
In **Algeria**, the Témouchent – MB Rouisset match offers odds of 2.23 for "Both Teams to Score – Yes," with an EV of +20.0% and a model score of 50/100. ES Sétif – JS Kabylie also shows odds of 2.11 for "Both Teams to Score – Yes," with an EV of +13.4%.
In **Colombia**, the Santa Fe vs. Jaguares match offers a "Both Teams to Score – Yes" bet at 2.03, with an EV of +14.2%. Millonarios vs. Once Caldas leans towards "Under 2.5 Goals" at 1.81, with a more modest EV of +3.5%.
In Japan, two selections show significant estimated value. Mito Hollyhock vs. FC Tokyo offers odds of 3.80 for a Mito win, with an EV of +81.1% and a model score of 47/100. Sagan Tosu vs. Avispa Fukuoka offers odds of 3.10 for a Sagan Tosu win, with an EV of +45.7% and a score of 46/100.
These two opportunities remain rated "Caution" by the model, despite their high EVs. A high theoretical value should not be confused with a high probability of winning.
In the **AFC Champions League Elite**, the Vissel Kobe vs. Jeonbuk Motors match offers a "Both Teams to Score – Yes" option at odds of 1.80, with an EV of +2.6%. However, confidence levels and the model's projected score are more modest, suggesting a need for caution.
Finally, among the riskier picks, Norwich vs. Southampton offers odds of 2.37 for a Norwich win, with a model score of just 27/100. Al Taawon vs. Al-Rayyan SC also features a home win at 2.45, but with a score of 19/100.
These encounters illustrate the importance of not limiting oneself to EV: the model score, confidence, and risk level must also be factored into the analysis.
📊 How FootProbability identifies opportunities
FootProbability employs a statistical approach based notably on a Poisson-type goal model adjusted using the Dixon-Coles method.
The estimated probabilities allow for the analysis of various markets: 1/N/2, Over/Under, BTTS, and—where data permits—Double Chance.
Expected Value (EV) measures the theoretical difference between the estimated probability and the available odds. A positive EV indicates that the model considers the odds to be potentially higher than their theoretical value.
This guarantees neither the accuracy of the estimated probability nor future profitability. Performance must be evaluated over a sufficiently long track record, taking into account both winning and losing results.
That is why Foot Probability also publishes a record of its results, success rate, and ROI.
Visit the FootProbability member area to access the 51 analyzed matches, the 17 value bets, and details of the day's selections.
You can also visit our Performance page to track the model's evolution over time.
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Argentina World Champions – FootProbability Edition
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Conclusion: 17 value bets to follow this Wednesday.
With **51 matches analyzed**, **17 Value Bets**, and an average EV of **+16.6%**, FootProbability presents another day of varied analysis.
The high-stakes match between Al-Duhail and Al-Shabab and the top three fixtures offer the day's key opportunities, while the "2-out-of-3" system provides a different approach to the three best combinations identified by the model.
The high EV values observed for certain matchups warrant particular attention: only by regularly comparing forecasts with actual results will it be possible to assess the validity of these estimates.
Play like FootProbability: analyze the odds, compare the odds, and always maintain a responsible approach.
🔞 For adults only. Sports betting carries risks of financial loss and addiction. No prediction guarantees a win. Never wager money you need.