This Friday, October 16, 2026, FootProbability analyzes 56 football matches and identifies 20 Value Bets, with an average Expected Value (EV) of +13.9% and an average confidence level of 52.4%. Our statistical model highlights several opportunities across European, Asian, and African leagues. Discover our "Strong Match" of the day, our Top 3, a 2-out-of-3 betting system, and key football analyses.
⭐ Top Match of the Day: Rudes – HNK Rijeka
Prediction: BTTS Yes | Odds: 1.81 | EV: +15.7% | Confidence: 63.9% | Model score: 63/100 | Likely score: 1-1.
For this Croatian league fixture, FootProbability favors the "both teams to score" market. Our model estimates a 63.9% probability that both sides will find the back of the net, compared to an implied probability of approximately 55.2% based on the odds of 1.81. This discrepancy results in a positive expected value (EV) of +15.7%. With a model score of 63/100, the match between Rudeš and HNK Rijeka stands out as the "Strong Match" of the day—though, as always, there is no guarantee of the outcome.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for October 16th
🥇 Rudes – HNK Rijeka : BTTS Oui à 1,81 | EV +15,7 % | Confiance 63,9 % | Score 63/100. Le modèle privilégie un scénario où les deux équipes marquent.
🥈 IF Brommapojkarna – Djurgårdens IF : Under 2,5 buts à 2,41 | EV +29,9 % | Confiance 53,9 % | Score 59/100. Une rencontre pour laquelle le modèle envisage moins de trois buts, avec un score probable de 1-1.
🥉 APR – Zamalek SC : BTTS Oui à 2,27 | EV +25,3 % | Confiance 55,2 % | Score 59/100. Cette rencontre de CAF Champions League présente un écart théorique positif entre la probabilité estimée et la cote.
🧩 2-from-3 multiple system
The FootProbability system includes the following three selections: Rudeš – HNK Rijeka, BTTS Yes at 1.81 (EV +15.7%, confidence 63.9%, score 63/100); IF Brommapojkarna – Djurgårdens IF, Under 2.5 goals at 2.41 (EV +29.9%, confidence 53.9%, score 59/100); APR – Zamalek SC, BTTS Yes at 2.27 (EV +25.3%, confidence 55.2%, score 59/100).
The system shows an average model score of 60/100 and an average individual EV of +23.7%. The approach involves forming three "doubles" (two-selection bets), with an estimated total cost of €3 to €5. Two winning predictions result in a winning double, though this does not guarantee an overall profit. The average EV of the individual selections does not correspond to the expected return of the system as a whole.
⭐ The three favorites of the day
Rapid Vienna – TSV Hartberg: Rapid Vienna victory at 1.25, model probability 57.7%. Santa Fe – Jaguares: Santa Fe victory at 1.34, model probability 57.3%. Hellas Verona – Catanzaro: Hellas Verona victory at 1.79, model probability 54.5%.
These teams are favorites according to the available odds, but that does not mean they represent "value bets." For instance, the model estimates Rapid Vienna’s probability of winning at 57.7%, whereas odds of 1.25 would require a success rate of approximately 80% to reach the theoretical break-even point. It is therefore essential to distinguish between a market favorite and a bet with positive value.
💰 Other Value Bets for October 16th
🇸🇦 Saudi Pro League
Al-Qadisiyah FC – Abha: BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – Yes at 1.93, EV +13.7%, score 58/100. Al-Ittihad FC – Al Shabab: Under 2.5 goals at 2.76, EV +42.1%, score 55/100. Al Riyadh – Al-Hilal Saudi FC: BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – Yes at 1.95, EV +11.4%, score 51/100. These three matches are classified as "Interesting" by FootProbability.
🇨🇳 Chine et 🇺🇾 Uruguay
Henan Jianye – Tianjin Teda: Under 2.5 goals at 1.85, EV +11.2%, score 56/100. Cerro – Cerro Largo: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No at 1.74, EV +3.7%, score 49/100. This latter selection remains classified as "Caution," with a probable score of 0-0.
🇫🇷 Ligue 2 and 🇮🇪 Ireland
Grenoble – Boulogne: Under 2.5 goals at 1.57, EV +2.8%, score 46/100. Annecy – Nancy: Annecy to win at 2.50, EV +9.6%, score 24/100, classified as "Risky." Drogheda United – Derry City: Drogheda to win at 3.00, EV +32.1%, score 44/100. Despite its high estimated value, this last selection remains classified as "Caution advised."
🇪🇸 Spain and 🇨🇴 Colombia
Deportivo La Coruna – Levante: Over 2.5 to 1.91, EV +7.2%, score 42/100. Leganes – Cordoba: Leganes victory at 2.25, EV +4.6%, score 26/100, classified “Risky”. Santa Fe – Jaguares: BTTS Yes at 2.01, EV +6.6%, score 40/100.
🇦🇱 Albania, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, and 🇦🇲 Armenia
Dinamo Tirana – Teuta Durrës: BTTS Yes at 1.92, EV +3.3%, score 38/100. Obolon’-Brovar – Veres Rivne: victory for Obolon’-Brovar at 2.78, EV +21.2%, score 35/100. Gandzasar – Sardarapat: victory for Gandzasar at 2.57, EV +19.1%, score 35/100. These three selections are classified as “Caution”.
🇮🇹 Italy, 🇮🇸 Iceland, and 🇭🇺 Hungary
Frosinone – Sassuolo: Frosinone victory at 2.50, EV +13.1%, score 32/100. IBV Vestmannaeyjar – FH Hafnarfjordur: IBV victory at 2.42, EV +2.2%, score 19/100, classified “Risky”. MTK Budapest – Vasas: victory for MTK Budapest at 2.16, EV +2.9%, score 25/100, also classified “Risky”.
📊 How does the FootProbability model work?
FootProbability employs a statistical goal-scoring model—specifically a Poisson distribution adjusted using the Dixon-Coles method—to estimate the probabilities of match outcomes. Our analyses cover several betting markets: 1X2 (Match Winner), Over/Under, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and Double Chance. "Expected Value" (EV) measures the theoretical profitability of a set of odds based on the probability estimated by the model. A positive EV does not guarantee a profit; the quality of these forecasts should be evaluated over a sufficiently large sample size, taking into account the success rate and actual return on investment (ROI). You can view our results on the "Performance" page and access detailed analyses in the free members' area.
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Conclusion: 20 Value Bets and one Strong Match at 63/100
With 56 matches analyzed, 20 Value Bets, an average EV of +13.9%, and an average confidence level of 52.4%, FootProbability continues its daily tracking of statistical opportunities. The match between Rudes and HNK Rijeka stands out with a model score of 63/100, joined in the Top 3 by the fixtures Brommapojkarna vs. Djurgårdens and APR vs. Zamalek. The outcomes will be monitored to evaluate the model’s reliability over time.
Play like FootProbability: analyze the odds, compare the odds, and maintain a responsible approach.
🔞 18+ | Sports betting carries risks of financial loss and addiction. No prediction guarantees a win.