This Sunday, October 18, 2026, FootProbability continues its statistical analysis, covering 171 matches, with 68 "Value Bets" identified, an estimated average EV (Expected Value) of +17.3%, and an average confidence level of 52.9%. Our model examines probabilities, odds, and various betting markets to pinpoint potentially advantageous discrepancies. Following a challenging day on October 17 in terms of actual results, we remain committed to our ongoing tracking process with the same dedication to transparency.
⭐ Strong match of the day: Sandefjord – Lillestrom
We head to Norway for our "Strong Match" pick. For the Sandefjord vs. Lillestrøm encounter, the model selects under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with an estimated EV of +39.9%, a confidence level of 60.6%, and a model score of 75/100. The projected score is 1-1—a scenario consistent with this selection. The model ranks this opportunity among the most compelling of the day, though the outcome is not guaranteed.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for October 18, 2026
🥇 Sandefjord – Lillestrom : Under 2,5 buts @2,31. EV +39,9 %, confiance 60,6 %, score modèle 75/100. Notre première sélection repose sur une estimation favorable à une rencontre de moins de trois buts.
🥈 Čelik – Zrinjski : BTTS Oui @2,05. EV +24,3 %, confiance 60,6 %, score modèle 70/100. Le modèle privilégie un scénario où les deux équipes trouvent le chemin des filets, avec un score probable de 1-1.
🥉 Angers – Marseille : Under 2,5 buts @2,30. EV +31,6 %, confiance 57,2 %, score modèle 69/100. Cette affiche de Ligue 1 complète le podium avec une projection de match relativement fermé et un score probable de 1-1.
🧩 2-out-of-3 system: today’s three selections
The FootProbability 2/3 system features the top three picks: Sandefjord vs. Lillestrøm, Under 2.5 goals @2.31; Čelik vs. Zrinjski, Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes @2.05; and Angers vs. Marseille, Under 2.5 goals @2.30. The dashboard shows an average score of 71/100, an average individual expected value (EV) of +32.0%, and a suggested total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three possible two-match combinations.
A 2/3 system consists of three double bets. Two winning selections will result in one winning double, but this does not guarantee a net profit. The displayed average EV (Expected Value) does not represent a guaranteed return for the system. No stake is required to follow the analyses.
🛡️ The three favorites of the day
FK Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lucani: FK Crvena Zvezda to win, model probability 62.9%, odds 1.02. Molde – Start: Molde to win, probability 59.9%, odds 1.30. Riga – Super Nova: Riga to win, probability 59.1%, odds 1.07.
These teams are among those identified by the model as favorites, but their very low odds do not necessarily mean they represent "value bets." The probability of victory and the potential for profit must be evaluated separately.
💎 The 68 Value Bets for Sunday, October 18, 2026
Below, you will find the selections identified by FootProbability across various competitions. The EV (Expected Value) figures are model estimates, not guaranteed winnings.
🇪🇺 Europe: France, Norway, Bosnia, Greece, and Poland
Norway: Sandefjord – Lillestrøm, Under 2.5 goals @2.31 (EV +39.9%, score 75/100). Bosnia: Čelik – Zrinjski, BTTS (Both Teams to Score) Yes @2.05 (+24.3%, 70/100). France: Angers – Marseille, Under 2.5 goals @2.30 (+31.6%, 69/100); Paris FC – Rennes, Paris FC to win @2.25 (+12.8%, 40/100); Le Havre – Auxerre, Le Havre to win @2.26 (+11.9%, 39/100).
Greece: Panathinaikos – Asteras Tripolis, BTTS Yes @2.30 (+28.7%, 63/100); Panetolikos – Olympiakos, Under 2.5 @1.99 (+9.8%, 48/100); PAOK – Iraklis 1908, Under 2.5 @2.25 (+15.9%, 46/100); Kifisia – Aris Thessalonikis, victory Kifisia @2.98 (+32.8%, 45/100); Kalamata – OFI, Kalamata victory @2.62 (+17.0%, 36/100).Poland: Lech Poznan – Korona Kielce, Under 2.5 @2.38 (+28.7%, 63/100).
🌍 Africa: continental competitions and national championships
CAF Champions League: Maghreb Fès vs. ASEC Mimosas, BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – Yes @3.24 (EV +82.3%, score 60/100); Teungueth vs. Colombe, Over 2.5 goals @2.88 (+44.4%, 50/100); Enugu Rangers vs. MC Alger, Enugu Rangers to win @3.39 (+57.4%, 46/100). The exceptionally high EV for these three matches warrants extra attention when checking the odds.
Algeria: JS Kabylie vs. US Biskra, BTTS Yes @2.40 (+28.3%, 58/100); MB Rouisset vs. JS Saoura, BTTS Yes @2.40 (+27.8%, 58/100); Témouchent vs. ASO Chlef, Over 2.5 @2.38 (+27.4%, 58/100). Tunisia: CS Hammam-Lif vs. Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, Over 2.5 @2.88 (+51.4%, 55/100); AS Marsa vs. ES Metlaoui, Over 2.5 @2.77 (+49.1%, 55/100); Olympique Béja vs. ES Sahel, BTTS Yes @2.12 (+15.8%, 51/100); US Monastirienne vs. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer, Over 2.5 @2.74 (+38.5%, 50/100). South Africa: Siwelele vs. Polokwane City, BTTS Yes @2.14 (+17.2%, 52/100). Morocco: Widad Témara vs. Kawkab Marrakech, BTTS Yes @1.85 (+4.2%, 39/100).
🇩🇪 Germany, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇮🇹 Italy and 🇬🇧 England
Germany: Dynamo Dresden – Magdeburg, Under 2.5 @2.38 (+24.7%, 58/100); Karlsruher SC – Darmstadt, victory Karlsruher @2.20 (+4.8%, 26/100).Spain: Real Madrid – Sevilla, BTTS Yes @1.85 (+10.4%, 55/100); Granada – Cadiz, BTTS Yes @1.83 (+7.8%, 52/100); AD Ceuta – Oviedo, Over 2.5 @1.95 (+3.0%, 37/100); Burgos – Sabadell, Burgos victory @2.49 (+4.2%, 21/100).Italy: Juventus – Lazio, Under 2.5 @1.85 (+2.7%, 41/100).
England: Bournemouth – Sunderland, Over 2.5 @1.90 (+7.5%, 46/100); Nottingham Forest – Arsenal, BTTS Yes @1.87 (+5.2%, 40/100); Leeds – Manchester United, Leeds victory @2.31 (+9.5%, 35/100).
🌎 Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and other leagues
Argentina: Belgrano – River Plate, double chance 1X @1.57 (+12.1%, 57/100); Estudiantes – San Lorenzo, Estudiantes victory @2.29 (+11.9%, 38/100).Brazil: Remo – RB Bragantino, Under 2.5 @2.06 (+16.3%, 55/100); Gremio – Cruzeiro, Gremio victory @2.80 (+18.4%, 32/100).Mexico: Cruz Azul – Juarez, BTTS Yes @1.80 (+12.6%, 59/100); Toluca – Atletico San Luis, BTTS Yes @1.61 (+7.5%, 57/100).
Colombia: Bucaramanga – America de Cali, victory Bucaramanga @2.55 (+23.4%, 44/100); Llaneros – Santa Fe, Over 2.5 @2.20 (+14.8%, 44/100); Águilas Doradas – Deportes Tolima, Over 2.5 @2.10 (+8.1%, 34/100).Ecuador:Delfin – Manta, Over 2.5 @2.20 (+13.5%, 39/100).Paraguay: Sportivo Luqueño – Sportivo San Lorenzo, BTTS Yes @1.82 (+2.6%, 37/100); Sportivo Trinidense – Libertad Asuncion, Trinidense victory @2.74 (+18.5%, 32/100).
🌏 Asia: China, Japan, South Korea, and Kazakhstan
China: Shanghai SIPG – Chengdu Better City, Under 2.5 @2.49 (+26.4%, 51/100); Wuhan Three Towns – Shanghai Shenhua, Wuhan victory @2.62 (+13.1%, 27/100).Japan: Machida Zelvia – Avispa Fukuoka, Over 2.5 @2.05 (+11.6%, 46/100); Fagiano Okayama – Vissel Kobe, Over 2.5 @2.09 (+11.8%, 42/100).South Korea: Jeonbuk Motors – Jeju United, Under 2.5 @1.85 (+2.6%, 41/100); Gangwon – Incheon United, Over 2.5 @2.25 (+12.9%, 38/100).
Kazakhstan: Kairat Almaty – Irtysh, Under 2.5 @2.22 (+18.3%, 52/100); Yelimay Semey – Ulytau, Under 2.5 @2.04 (+9.1%, 43/100).Saudi Arabia: Al-Fateh – Al Khaleej, BTTS No @2.12 (+9.6%, 40/100).
🌍 Other European leagues
Cyprus: Omonia Aradippou – AEL, Omonia victory @2.79 (+32.0%, 50/100); Aris – AEK Larnaca, victory AEK Larnaca @2.38 (+2.9%, 26/100).Montenegro: Mladost DG – Jezero, Over 2.5 @1.95 (+8.6%, 47/100).Albania: Vora – Partizani, BTTS Yes @1.73 (+2.2%, 47/100); Egnatia – Vllaznia, BTTS Yes @1.99 (+9.6%, 44/100).
Estonia: Kuressaare – Levadia Tallinn, BTTS Yes @1.83 (+6.1%, 46/100).Armenia: FC Noah – Pyunik, Over 2.5 @1.86 (+5.7%, 45/100); BKMA – Ararat-Armenia, BTTS Yes @1.85 (+2.5%, 41/100).Denmark: Sonderjyske – Silkeborg, Silkeborg victory @2.60 (+11.1%, 29/100).Latvia: Riga – Super Nova, BTTS Yes @2.10 (+9.3%, 43/100).Austria: Sturm Graz – Grazer AK, victory Sturm Graz @1.80 (+3.6%, 41/100).Türkiye: Kasımpaşa – Samsunspor, BTTS No @1.97 (+4.3%, 38/100); Kocaelispor – Göztepe, victory Kocaelispor @2.81 (+18.3%, 32/100).Romania: UTA Arad – CFR Cluj, victory UTA Arad @2.10 (+8.7%, 37/100).
📈 How to interpret Value Bets?
A "value bet" occurs when the probability calculated by our model suggests a value greater than that implicitly reflected in the odds offered. For example, an EV (expected value) estimated at +20% does not mean that a bet has a 20% higher chance of winning, nor does it mean that it will automatically yield a 20% return.
FootProbability employs a statistical approach based on goal probabilities, as well as 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS (Both Teams to Score), and Double Chance markets. Data quality, the availability of odds, and the calibration of probabilities remain essential. Selections with a low model score or an exceptionally high expected value (EV) should be interpreted with caution.
🔎 Our commitment: measuring actual performance
We continue to track results in order to compare model estimates against completed matches. Key indicators include the success rate, return on investment (using constant stakes), performance by market, and the reliability of the stated probabilities.
A single good day does not prove that a model is profitable, just as a single bad day is not enough to condemn it. It is the accumulation of verifiable results that will make it possible to improve FootProbability and evaluate the effectiveness of ongoing optimizations.
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