FootProbability continues its analysis this Friday, October 2, 2026, with a larger schedule than the previous day. The model analyzes 30 matches and identifies 5 Value Bets. The average EV reaches +22.2%, and the average confidence level is 53.7%. In total, 8 matches achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher.
The day’s slate presents quite varied profiles. The "Strong Match" reaches a score of 55/100, whereas several unranked Value Bets exceed 60/100. This discrepancy serves as a reminder that the model score and Value Bet status do not measure exactly the same thing.
October 1st update: a difficult day
The results for October 1st were negative, with **1 winning prediction out of 3 recorded**. The Maldives vs. Lebanon (BTTS Yes @3.73) and Argentina vs. Bolivia (BTTS Yes @2.43) bets lost. However, the Uzbekistan vs. Syria match was a winner with the Over 2.5 bet @1.96, thanks to a final score of 4-1.
For the two selections classified as "Value" in the tracker, the record stands at **1 win and 1 loss**. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the return is 1.96 units for 2 units wagered. This represents **-0.04 units and a theoretical ROI of -2%**.
This day further illustrates the importance of tracking results over a long period. A selection with high EV can lose, whereas a poor success rate can sometimes remain close to break-even thanks to the odds played.
Big Match: Widad Témara – UTS Rabat
The featured match for October 2nd is Widad Témara vs. UTS Rabat. FootProbability selects Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.61, with a model score of 55/100. The EV stands at +39.4%, and confidence is 53.4%.
The model therefore detects an interesting discrepancy in the Over/Under market. The odds of 2.61 offer significant theoretical value, but the score of 55/100 suggests a measured approach to this selection.
This marquee match also takes the top spot in the FootProbability Top 3.
A top 3 with three different profiles
The Top 3 begins with Widad Témara – UTS Rabat, Over 2.5 @2.61, with a score of 55/100. The second pick is Independiente – Instituto Córdoba, BTTS Yes @2.08, with a score of 52/100, an EV of +17.2%, and a confidence level of 56.3%.
Third place goes to DR Congo vs. Uganda, Over 2.5 goals @2.38. This selection scores 49/100, with an EV of +23.1% and a confidence level of 51.7%.
Unlike the previous day, the three top-ranked selections do not all score above 60/100. Nevertheless, the model retains these three matches as its top picks based on the day's rankings.
A "2-out-of-3" system with an average of 63/100.
The 2-out-of-3 system currently shows higher scores than the Top 3. The first selection is Saint Lucia vs. Guadeloupe, Under 2.5 @2.28, with a score of 66/100, an EV of +37.4%, and 60.2% confidence.
The second pick is Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Sweden, Under 2.5 @2.08, with a score of 62/100, +25.7% EV, and 60.5% confidence. The third is Cayman Islands vs. Puerto Rico, Under 2.5 @2.88, with a score of 61/100, +71.1% EV, and 59.4% confidence.
The system thus achieves an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +44.7%. The three selections are for the Under 2.5 market, with odds ranging from 2.08 to 2.88.
The 5 Value Bets for October 2nd
Today, FootProbability has identified **5 value bets across 30 analyzed matches**. Widad Témara vs. UTS Rabat ranks highest with "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.61 and a score of 55/100. Independiente vs. Instituto Córdoba follows with "Both Teams to Score (Yes)" at odds of 2.08 and a score of 52/100.
Congo DR – Ouganda est proposé en Over 2,5 @2,38 avec 49/100. Corée du Sud – Venezuela est sélectionné en BTTS Oui @2,00 avec 48/100 et +13,0 % d’EV.
La cinquième Value Bet est Eldense – Oviedo, Over 2,5 @2,34. Elle affiche un score de 43/100 et une EV de +18,1 %.
The five Value Bets do not all carry the same level of confidence; scores range from 43 to 55/100. It remains important to consider the model score alongside the EV and the odds.
Matches followed with a score above 60/100
A notable feature of the day is that the system's three highest scores are not classified as Value Bets. Saint Lucia vs. Guadeloupe reaches **66/100**, Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Sweden **62/100**, and the Cayman Islands vs. Puerto Rico **61/100**.
Other matches also achieved impressive scores. Belgium vs. Turkey and France vs. Italy both reached **56/100**, while Poland vs. Romania scored **54/100**.
This makes it possible to distinguish between two important concepts in FootProbability. A high model score measures the overall quality detected by the algorithm, whereas "Value Bet" status depends on the criteria used to identify an odds-based opportunity.
No favorite for the day
No favorite meets FootProbability’s criteria today. The "Favorites" section therefore remains empty. The model prefers not to propose any team rather than artificially adding a selection to fill this part of the page.
This approach remains the same regardless of the day. The number of value bets, favorites, or highlighted selections depends on the available data and the model's criteria.
A broader yet still selective day
This Friday, October 2, features 30 analyzed matches resulting in just 5 Value Bets. The key match between Widad Témara and UTS Rabat scores 55/100 with odds of 2.61, while the "2-out-of-3" system stands out with an average score of 63/100 and an average EV of +44.7%.
After a difficult day on October 1st, the goal is not to try to recoup losses. FootProbability continues to apply the same criteria and retains both winning and losing results in its history.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Une Value Bet, une EV positive ou un score élevé ne garantit aucun résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.