FootProbability presents its football predictions for Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Our statistical model has analyzed 35 matches and identified 12 Value Bets across several competitions. The estimated average EV (Expected Value) reaches +28.4%, with an average confidence level of 50.8%.
These analyses are based on probabilities calculated by our model and the available odds. The goal is to identify matches where the odds offer positive theoretical value. However, a "Value Bet" remains a statistical prediction and does not guarantee any winnings.
Key match of the day: Young Africans vs CFFA
The match between Young Africans and CFFA in the CAF Champions League is FootProbability’s top pick for today. Our model favors the BTTS Yes market, meaning both teams are expected to score at least one goal.
The selection has odds of 3.05, an estimated EV of +71.6%, and a confidence level of 56.3%. Its model score is 60/100, with a predicted score of 1-1.
The analysis reveals a significant discrepancy between the estimated probability of both teams scoring and the probability implied by the odds. While this theoretical value is noteworthy, the high odds also point to a significant level of risk.
Top 3 FootProbability for October 21, 2026
The Top 3 consists of the three selections highlighted by our model based on their score, confidence level, and the value identified.
1. Young Africans vs CFFA: BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – Yes. The odds are 3.05, with an estimated EV of +71.6%, a confidence level of 56.3%, and a model score of 60/100. This match currently holds the top spot in the rankings.
2. 15 de Agosto vs Simba: BTTS Yes. The model also suggests that both teams will score, with odds of 2.62, an estimated EV of +47.4%, a confidence level of 56.2%, and a score of 60/100.
3. PK-35 vs FF Jaro: Over 2.5 goals. This match from the Finnish league rounds out the Top 3. The odds are 2.28, with an estimated EV of +21.4%, a confidence level of 53.2%, and a model score of 51/100.
These three matchups represent the best opportunities identified at the time of analysis. Odds fluctuate regularly and may alter the rankings before the matches begin.
2-out-of-3 system: the three selections of the day
In addition to the "Top 3," FootProbability offers a "2-out-of-3" system based on three different matches. This system involves creating three double bets from three selections. Getting two predictions correct ensures a win on at least one of the double bets, though it does not guarantee an overall profit.
The first matchup features Como against Manchester United. Our model favors under 2.5 goals, with odds of 2.38, an estimated EV of +41.6%, a confidence level of 59.5%, and a model score of 66/100.
The second selection concerns Lille vs. Galatasaray, also in the under 2.5 goals market. The odds are 2.33, with an estimated EV of +37.9%, a confidence level of 59.2%, and a model score of 66/100.
Finally, Young Africans vs. CFFA rounds out the system with a BTTS Yes prediction, at odds of 3.05, an estimated EV of +71.6%, and a model score of 60/100.
The system has an average model score of 64/100 and an estimated average EV of +50.4% across the three individual selections. This average does not represent the expected return for the complete system. The suggested stake indicated by FootProbability is €3–€5 in total, distributed across the three doubles, subject to each individual's budget.
Other Value Bets detected today
Beyond the "Strong Match" and the "Top 3," several matchups offer value opportunities according to our model.
In the Egyptian league, Ghazl El Mehalla hosts Al Ittihad. FootProbability favors over 2.5 goals, with odds of 3.20, an estimated EV of +60.5%, and a model score of 50/100. Also in Egypt, the match between Al Ahly and Olympic El Qanah features a selection of BTTS (Both Teams to Score) – Yes at odds of 2.30, with an EV of +18.3% and a score of 48/100.
In Estonia, Laagri faces Flora Tallinn. The model identifies theoretical value in a Laagri win, which is offered at odds of 3.30. The estimated EV (expected value) reaches +63.0%, with a model score of 48/100. This selection warrants caution, given its high odds.
In Colombia, Llaneros hosts Deportivo Cali. FootProbability favors a Llaneros win, with odds of 2.69, an estimated EV of +22.7%, and a model score of 38/100. Despite the positive value, the level of confidence remains limited.
These examples show that Value Bets can apply to various markets and leagues. A high EV does not necessarily mean that a prediction has a high probability of success.
No favorites selected today
No market favorite meets the criteria defined by FootProbability for today. Our model does not aim to consistently provide a favorite; when no match satisfies the selection conditions, this category remains empty.
This approach makes it possible to distinguish market favorites from the genuine value opportunities identified by the model.
Find the 12 Value Bets in our free member area
The FootProbability member area allows you to view the 35 matches analyzed today, including probabilities for a win, draw, or loss, goal estimates, BTTS (Both Teams to Score) predictions, probable scores, and available odds.
Visitors can also find the "Strong Match" (Match Fort), the "Top 3," the "2-out-of-3" system, and all the "Value Bets" that have been identified. The analyses are updated based on available data and changes in the odds.
Check out today’s predictions for free at https://footprobability.com/
A statistical method for analyzing football
FootProbability uses a statistical model inspired by the Dixon-Coles method to estimate the probabilities of match outcomes. These estimates are compared against available odds to identify discrepancies that may offer positive value.
Monitoring results also makes it possible to evaluate the model’s performance over time. However, past results do not guarantee future performance.
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Responsible gaming
Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. The odds, model-based scores, and EV (expected value) figures presented are estimates and do not guarantee any winnings. Betting is restricted to individuals aged 18 and over.
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