FootProbability presents its football predictions for Thursday, October 22, 2026. Our statistical model has analyzed 48 matches across various competitions and identified 4 Value Bets. The estimated average EV (Expected Value) reaches +9.0%, with an average confidence level of 56.1%.
The number of Value Bets is lower than in previous days, despite a broader coverage of matches. Our model selects only those opportunities that meet its specific criteria. A Value Bet represents odds deemed attractive based on estimated probabilities, but it does not guarantee a winning outcome.
Highlight match of the day: Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat
The match between Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat in the Montenegrin championship is FootProbability’s featured "strong pick" for today. Our model favors the under 2.5 goals market, at odds of 1.84.
This selection presents an estimated EV of +9.1%, a confidence level of 59.3%, and a model score of 54/100. The most likely score is 1-1, a scenario consistent with a match featuring fewer than three goals.
The model estimates that the probability of a low-scoring match is higher than what the available odds suggest. This discrepancy represents a positive theoretical value, though it does not guarantee the final outcome.
The best FootProbability picks for October 22nd
Today’s ranking features two main selections. FootProbability does not automatically fill out its Top 3 when no other matches meet the established criteria.
1. Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat: Under 2.5 goals. The odds are 1.84, with an estimated EV of +9.1%, a confidence level of 59.3%, and a model score of 54/100. This match currently holds the top spot in the rankings.
2. Al-Hazm vs Al-Fayha: Under 2.5 goals. In this Saudi league match, the model also points toward a game with fewer than three goals. The odds are 1.77, with an estimated EV of +7.3%, a confidence level of 60.6%, and a model score of 53/100.
These selections are based on data available at the time of the analysis. Odds and rankings may change before the start of the matches.
2-out-of-3 system: three selected matches
FootProbability also offers a "2-out-of-3" system consisting of three predictions. This selection differs from the main ranking and is based on scores and probabilities calculated by the model.
The first matchup features Ararat-Armenia against AZ Alkmaar. The selected prediction is Double Chance 1X, which covers a win for Ararat-Armenia or a draw. The odds are 2.45, with an estimated EV of +80.3%, a confidence level of 73.6%, and a model score of 67/100.
The second selection concerns Omonia Nicosia vs. Benfica. FootProbability also suggests a Double Chance 1X, with odds of 3.00, an estimated EV of +114.6%, a confidence level of 71.5%, and a model score of 66/100.
Finally, Dinamo Zagreb vs. NEC Nijmegen rounds out the system with a prediction of under 2.5 goals. The odds are 2.31, with an estimated EV of +37.7%, a confidence level of 59.6%, and a model score of 66/100.
The system shows an average model score of 66/100 and an estimated average EV of +77.5% for the three individual selections. This average does not correspond to the expected return of the complete system.
A "2 out of 3" system consists of three double bets. Having two winning selections ensures a win on at least one of the doubles, but it does not guarantee an overall profit. Odds and probabilities should be checked before making any decisions.
Other Value Bets of the Day
In addition to the two main selections, FootProbability has identified two further Value Bets.
In the Montenegrin championship, Mornar hosts Mladost DG. Our model favors the prediction BTTS Yes—meaning both teams will score at least one goal. The odds are 2.01, with an estimated EV of +8.5% and a model score of 43/100. The most likely scoreline is 1-1.
In Mexico, Santos Laguna faces U.N.A.M. Pumas in Liga MX. The selected prediction is under 2.5 goals, with odds of 2.21, an estimated EV of +11.3%, and a model score of 41/100. The most likely score is 1-1.
These two selections fall into the "Caution" category. Their theoretical value is positive, but their model score remains lower than that of the day's best opportunities.
Two favorites confirmed by the model
FootProbability also identifies market favorites whose odds are supported by its statistical analysis.
The first pick is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs. Al Khaleej Saihat. The model estimates the probability of an Al-Ahli Jeddah win at 58.7%, with odds of 1.25.
The second top pick is Santa Fe vs. Jaguares. The probability of a Santa Fe victory is estimated at 58.5%, with odds of 1.23.
These two teams are presented as the favorites for the day, but they do not necessarily represent "value bets." The available odds should always be compared against estimated probabilities to assess their value.
Find the 48 analyzed matches in our free member area
The FootProbability member area allows you to view analyses for the 48 matches covered today, including the 4 Value Bets identified by our model.
Each match features detailed statistics, including probabilities for a win, draw, or loss, goal estimates, BTTS (both teams to score) predictions, likely scorelines, and available odds.
Visitors can also check out the "Match Fort" (Strong Match), top picks, daily favorites, and the "2-out-of-3" system. This information is updated based on available data and changes in odds.
Consult FootProbability predictions for free on https://footprobability.com/
Our match analysis method
FootProbability uses a statistical model inspired by the Dixon-Coles method to estimate the probabilities of football match outcomes. These probabilities are compared against available odds to identify opportunities with positive theoretical value.
Our goal is to provide transparent analyses, accompanied by confidence indicators and performance tracking. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
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Responsible gaming
Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. The probabilities, model-based scores, and EV (expected value) figures presented are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any winnings. Betting is restricted to individuals aged 18 and over.
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