Following a particularly successful day on September 21st with its recorded selections, FootProbability continues its analysis this Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Today, the model covers 18 matches and identifies 4 Value Bets, with an average EV of +18.9% and an average confidence level of 54.5%. This time, three selections reach the 50/100 mark.
The schedule is less extensive than on some previous days, yet the model's calculations reveal several interesting discrepancies. The top pick scores 59/100, while the first three selections form a relatively evenly matched top three.
Results for September 21: 3 selections, 3 winners.
The three Value Bets recorded in the history for September 21st all finished in the green. Toluca vs. Santos Laguna (BTTS: Yes @1.74) ended with a score of 2–3. Pachuca vs. Club Tijuana (BTTS: Yes @1.80) was a winner with a 2–2 scoreline, while Oţelul vs. Corvinul Hunedoara (Over 2.5 @2.08) concluded with a 2–3 result.
The final tally is therefore **3 winners out of 3**, representing a 100% success rate for these three tracked selections. Based on a simple simulation using a fixed stake of 1 unit per selection, the 3 units wagered would have yielded a return of **5.62 units**—resulting in a profit of **+2.62 units** and a theoretical ROI of **+87.3%**.
However, this result must be viewed in context: three matches constitute a very limited sample. Consequently, this excellent day alone is not enough to draw conclusions about the model's long-term performance.
18 matches and 4 value bets this Tuesday.
FootProbability is analyzing 18 matches today. Among them, only 4 are classified as Value Bets, and three have a model score of at least 50/100.
The average EV of Value Bets has reached **+18.9%**, compared to just +4.4% the previous day. The theoretical quality of the opportunities is therefore rising significantly, even though the number of available matches remains limited.
Strong Match: MC Algiers – MC Oran
The featured match on September 22 is the Algerian Ligue 1 clash between MC Alger and MC Oran. FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @2.35, meaning both teams will score at least one goal.
This selection has a model score of 59/100, an EV of +28.4%, and a confidence level of 54.6%. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1.
With odds exceeding 2.00 and a confidence level close to 55%, the model primarily identifies a discrepancy between its own probability estimate and the market price. This explains the high EV of +28.4%, though it obviously does not mean that the BTTS outcome is certain to occur.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 22
The top spot logically goes to MC Alger – MC Oran, BTTS Yes @2.35, with a score of 59/100, +28.4% EV, and 54.6% confidence. The second pick is Independiente Medellin – Jaguares, BTTS Yes @1.97. It scores 52/100, with an EV of +12.7% and 57.2% confidence.
Third place goes to US Biskra – JS Saoura (Over 2.5 goals @2.59). It scores 50/100, with a particularly high EV of +30.0% and a confidence level of 50.2%.
The three selections thus offer odds ranging from **1.97 to 2.59**. Their confidence levels remain relatively close to 50%, demonstrating once again that high EV should not be confused with a high probability of success.
The 2-out-of-3 system shows an average of 54/100.
The "2 out of 3" system comprises these three selections: MC Alger – MC Oran BTTS Yes @2.35, Independiente Medellin – Jaguares BTTS Yes @1.97, and US Biskra – JS Saoura Over 2.5 @2.59.
The system shows an average score of 54/100 and an average EV of +23.7%. FootProbability suggests a total stake of €3 to €5, distributed across the three double bets.
Compared to the very weak system of September 21, which posted an average of only 44/100, the indicators are rising. However, they remain in a range where selection should be approached with caution.
Independiente Medellín vs. Jaguares: second pick at 1.52
The Colombian match between **Independiente Medellín and Jaguares** represents the model's second-best opportunity. FootProbability selects **BTTS Yes @1.97**, with a score of **52/100**, an EV of **+12.7%**, and a confidence level of **57.2%**. The calculated probable score is 1-1.
This match also appears among the fixtures highlighted by other prediction models on September 22, even though their markets and conclusions may differ from those of FootProbability. This underscores the value of comparing methodologies without retroactively altering the selections generated by our own model.
US Biskra – JS Saoura: the highest EV in the top 3
The third pick also deserves attention. For the **US Biskra vs. JS Saoura** match, FootProbability favors **Over 2.5 goals @2.59**.
The model score stands at exactly 50/100, while the EV rises to +30.0%—the highest among the top three. Confidence, however, remains limited to 50.2%.
This is a good example of the difference between confidence and value. The model does not consider "Over 2.5" to be extremely likely; rather, it estimates that the odds of 2.59 potentially offer greater value relative to the calculated probability.
A fourth, more cautious Value Bet
The fourth value bet comes from the English FA Cup, featuring Dagenham & Redbridge vs. Waltham Abbey. The model's pick is BTTS Yes @1.87, with an EV of +4.5%.
However, its score is only 39/100, which explains its classification in the Caution category. It therefore remains behind the day's three main selections.
Today's favorite: Independiente Medellín
FootProbability also distinguishes market favorites from "Value Bets." Today, the model identifies **Independiente Medellin against Jaguares** as the favorite, with an estimated win probability of **52.4%** at odds of **1.29**.
Be careful not to confuse the two pieces of information: the favorite refers to the **1X2** market, whereas the value bet selected for this same match is **BTTS Yes @1.97**.
A more interesting day on paper
After a September 21st that saw very limited volume but ultimately perfect results across the three recorded selections, FootProbability heads into this Tuesday with stronger indicators: **4 Value Bets, three scores of 50/100 or higher, and an average EV of +18.9%**.
The **BTTS Yes @2.35 bet for MC Alger vs. MC Oran** is the top pick, with a score of 59/100. Independiente Medellín vs. Jaguares and US Biskra vs. JS Saoura round out the top three.
As always, this data represents probabilistic estimates. A "Value Bet" means the model detects a favorable discrepancy between its estimated probability and the available odds; it never constitutes a guarantee of the outcome.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The probabilities, scores, and value bets presented by FootProbability are statistical estimates. Gamble responsibly.