FootProbability presents its football predictions for Friday, October 23, 2026. Our statistical model has analyzed 78 matches across various leagues and international competitions. Among these, 36 "Value Bets" have been identified, with an estimated average EV of +20.2% and an average confidence level of 53.1%. This day offers numerous theoretical opportunities, notably in the African Champions League, European leagues, and competitions in South America.
As with every day, our goal is to identify the discrepancies between the probabilities calculated by the FootProbability model and the odds on offer. A positive EV indicates an attractive theoretical value, but it never guarantees a winning prediction.
⭐ Top match of the day: MC Alger vs Enugu Rangers
The match between MC Alger and Enugu Rangers in the CAF Champions League is our top pick for October 23. The FootProbability model favors the BTTS Yes prediction—meaning both teams will score at least one goal during the match.
The odds offered are 2.39, with an estimated EV of +31.7%, a confidence level of 55.1%, and a model score of 64/100. According to our model, the most likely exact score is 1-1. This selection ranks first on the list, based on a combination of its theoretical value, confidence level, and model score.
The BTTS (Both Teams to Score) market shows a positive gap between the estimated probability and the probability implied by the odds. This discrepancy explains why the MC Alger vs. Enugu Rangers match ranks among the best statistical opportunities of the day.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for October 23rd
Our Top 3 consists of the model’s three best selections, ranked according to their score, confidence level, and the value detected.
🥇 MC Alger vs Enugu Rangers — BTTS Oui à 2,39. Avec une EV estimée de +31,7 %, une confiance de 55,1 % et un score modèle de 64/100, cette rencontre domine notre classement. Le modèle envisage un scénario dans lequel les deux équipes parviennent à marquer.
🥈 Tammeka vs Trans Narva — Victoire de Tammeka à 2,01. Dans le championnat estonien, FootProbability privilégie une victoire de l’équipe à domicile. L’EV estimée atteint +20,2 %, avec une confiance de 59,8 % et un score modèle de 63/100. Le score probable est de 2-1, ce qui correspond au pronostic retenu.
🥉 Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar — BTTS Oui à 2,61. Cette rencontre du championnat ukrainien complète le podium. Notre modèle estime une EV de +46,4 %, avec une confiance de 56,1 % et un score modèle de 60/100. Le score probable est de 1-1, ce qui soutient le scénario d’au moins un but pour chaque équipe.
These three matchups represent the primary opportunities identified during the model synchronization process. Odds and selections are subject to change prior to kickoff.
🧩 Our 2-out-of-3 system for today
For October 23, FootProbability suggests a "2-out-of-3" system bet featuring three top picks: MC Alger vs. Enugu Rangers with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.39, Tammeka vs. Trans Narva with a win for Tammeka at 2.01, and Polessya vs. Obolon-Brovar with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.61.
The system shows an average model score of 62/100 and an estimated average EV of +32.8% for individual selections. The approach involves distributing a total stake across three double bets. If two predictions are correct, one double bet wins; however, the overall financial outcome depends on the odds and how the stakes are allocated.
This system means you are not necessarily dependent on all three predictions being correct, unlike a standard accumulator bet. However, it does not eliminate the risk of a loss.
💎 Other attractive Value Bets
Beyond the top 3, several matchups offer positive theoretical values and interesting model-based scores.
In the African Champions League, Orlando Pirates host African Stars. The model favors "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.50, with an estimated EV of +36.2% and a model score of 56/100. In Algeria, Olympique Akbou vs. CS Constantine is selected for "Over 2.5 goals" at 2.40, with an EV of +26.9% and a score of 57/100. The match between JS El Biar and MC Oran is also selected for "Over 2.5 goals," at odds of 2.67, with an EV of +44.3% and a model score of 55/100.
In Tunisia, three matches have caught the model’s attention within the goals market. For US Ben Guerdane vs. Stade Tunisien, the model suggests betting on "over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.92, with an estimated EV of +54.0% and a model score of 55/100. AS Marsa vs. CS Hammam-Lif offers the same prediction at odds of 2.83, with an EV of +49.9% and a score of 55/100. Finally, CA Bizertin vs. ES Hammam-Sousse shows value for "over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.65, with an EV of +34.8% and a model score of 51/100.
In other leagues, Atletico Nacional vs. Deportivo Pasto is highlighted for "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at odds of 2.32, with an estimated EV of +22.4% and a model score of 56/100. In Ireland, Shamrock Rovers vs. Sligo Rovers also features "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 2.08, with an EV of +17.8% and a score of 53/100. In Montenegro, Jezero vs. Petrovac is selected for a Jezero win at 2.80, with an EV of +34.2% and a model score of 51/100.
These opportunities demonstrate the diversity of the competitions analyzed by FootProbability. However, they should be considered on an individual basis, as a high EV does not necessarily imply a high probability of success.
🇫🇷 French championship predictions
FootProbability also covers several matches from the French leagues this Friday.
In Ligue 1, Stade Brestois vs. Nice stands out as one of the day’s "Value Bets." Our model favors a win for Brest at odds of 2.20, with an estimated EV of +15.2% and a model score of 47/100. The projected scoreline is 2-1. This selection is categorized as "Caution," suggesting that the level of confidence in this pick should be considered carefully.
In Ligue 2, the match between Clermont Foot and Guingamp has been selected for a bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84, with an estimated EV of +2.4% and a model score of 37/100. This theoretical value remains limited, and the prediction also falls into the "Caution" category.
⭐ Today's top picks
In addition to Value Bets, the FootProbability model identifies three market favorites.
Atletico Nacional versus Deportivo Pasto emerges as the top favorite, with an estimated 58.8% probability of winning and odds of 1.23. Penybont versus Holywell follows, with a 58.1% win probability and odds of 1.20. Finally, VfB Stuttgart versus Borussia Mönchengladbach has an estimated win probability of 57.3%, with odds of 1.36.
These teams are identified as favorites by the model, but this does not mean that their odds offer positive value. A favorite may have a relatively high probability of winning while still having odds that are insufficient to constitute a "value bet."
📊 How FootProbability analyzes matches
FootProbability relies on a statistical model inspired by the Dixon-Coles method, which is used to estimate the probabilities of various outcomes in a football match. Specifically, the model analyzes 1X2 markets, Over/Under 2.5 goals, and BTTS (Both Teams to Score), as well as probable final scores.
Each selection is accompanied by odds, an estimated Expected Value, a confidence indicator, and a model score. This information allows visitors to compare opportunities and gain a better understanding of the choices presented.
The "probable score" refers to the specific, individual exact score considered most likely to occur. It may therefore differ from the favored outcome in a market such as "Over 2.5 goals," which encompasses several possible scorelines.
Our approach is also built on transparency. Predictions are automatically recorded, and their outcomes are tracked in order to measure the model’s actual performance over time.
📈 FootProbability’s performance
As of October 23, 2026, the automated tracking system shows 2,334 recorded bets, with an overall ROI of -3.7%. The top 3 entries show an ROI of +1.6%, while the last seven days show +13.9%. These results indicate a recent improvement, even though the overall performance remains negative.
The test of optimized Value Bets, which began on September 21, 2026, has now reached 150 completed bets, with 81 winning bets, a profit of +29.45 units, and a recorded ROI of +19.8%. This progress is encouraging, but the sample size needs to grow further to evaluate the stability of the model.
FootProbability publishes these indicators to allow visitors to track both positive and negative periods. Past performance is never a guarantee of future results.
🔓 Access our 78 football analyses for free
Our free member area provides access to the 78 matches analyzed for October 23, 2026, including 36 Value Bets. Visitors can view the best opportunities, model-calculated probabilities, odds, predicted scores, and detailed analyses.
Data is regularly synchronized, making it possible to track developments within the squads ahead of matches. Predictions are provided for informational purposes and should always be accompanied by responsible risk management.
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🔞 Responsible gambling
Sports betting is restricted to adults. It carries a risk of financial loss. The displayed odds and EV (expected value) are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any winnings. Never wager an amount that you cannot afford to lose.
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