FootProbability continues its analysis this Friday, September 25, 2026, with a day featuring a larger number of matches but a highly selective approach to Value Bets. Today, the model analyzes 34 matches and identifies just 2 Value Bets, with an average EV of +17.7% and an average confidence level of 50.7%.
This selective approach follows an excellent day for Value Bets on September 24. The four Value Bets tracked—aside from the "Match Fort" (Key Match)—were all winners. The China vs. Maldives "Match Fort," however, was unsuccessful. This serves as yet another illustration of the importance of tracking results in their entirety, rather than focusing solely on the best performances.
Results for September 24: 4 out of 4 Value Bets won.
Les Value Bets du 24 septembre ont réalisé un 4/4. Japon – Uruguay Over 2,5 @2,07 s’est terminé 3-1, Corée du Sud – Équateur Over 2,5 @2,12 s’est terminé 3-0, America de Cali – Águilas Doradas Under 2,5 @1,92 a été validé avec un score de 1-0 et Ouzbékistan – Iran, victoire de l’Ouzbékistan @2,80, s’est terminé 3-1.
With a fixed stake of 1 unit, these four Value Bets yield a return of **8.91 units on 4 units wagered**, representing a theoretical result of **+4.91 units** and an **ROI of +122.8%** for this series.
However, the full record must also include the "Strong Match" pick. The **China vs. Maldives BTTS Yes @3.40** bet lost, as China won 3–0. Combining this selection with the previous four, the five visible predictions yield **4 winners and 1 loser**—an 80% success rate and a profit of +3.91 units based on flat stakes.
It is precisely for this reason that FootProbability distinguishes between the results of the different categories: an excellent day for Value Bets does not prevent the "Strong Match" from losing.
34 matches analyzed but only 2 value bets.
For September 25th, FootProbability covers 34 matches, but only 2 are classified as Value Bets. Nevertheless, the model includes 7 selections with a score of 50/100 or higher.
The low number of Value Bets therefore contrasts with the volume of available matches. The model does not seek to artificially generate more selections; a match must meet the necessary criteria to earn the Value Bet badge.
Strong Match: India – Panama in BTTS Yes @2.15
The featured match of the day is the friendly between India and Panama. FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @2.15, meaning both teams are expected to score.
The selection achieves a model score of 56/100, with an EV of +21.1% and a confidence level of 56.3%.
This prediction is also an official Value Bet and ranks first among the best opportunities listed by FootProbability.
Following the failure of yesterday’s "Strong Match" pick—which had odds of 3.40—today’s selection presents a different profile, with lower odds of 2.15. Naturally, this does not guarantee success: the model’s confidence level remains at 56.3%.
Chico vs. Deportivo Pasto: the second value bet
The second official Value Bet is in Colombia, featuring **Chico vs. Deportivo Pasto**. FootProbability favors a **Chico win at 2.53**.
The prediction receives a score of 33/100 and an EV of +14.3%. It is rated Caution, with a probable score of 2-1.
This selection clearly illustrates the difference between EV and the model score. The odds of 2.53 yield a positive theoretical value, but other indicators lead FootProbability to remain cautious.
The 2-out-of-3 system still achieves a score of 64/100.
Just like on the previous matchday, the **2-out-of-3 system** has yielded particularly high scores. Once again, the three selections are for the **Under 2.5** market.
The first is Gambia vs. Somalia: Under 2.5 @2.25. It scores 66/100, with a confidence level of 59.5% and an EV of +33.9%.
The second pick is Sweden vs. Romania: Under 2.5 @2.24, also with a score of 66/100, 59.6% confidence, and an EV of +33.5%.
Finally, Turkey vs. France: Under 2.5 @2.77 rounds out the system with a score of 61/100, 60.0% confidence, and an EV of +66.3%.
The system thus shows an average score of 64/100 and an average EV of +44.6%. The stake suggested by FootProbability is €3 to €5 in total, distributed across the three double bets.
Gambia – Somalia and Sweden – Romania: 66/100
Two matches therefore share the best model score of the day with 66/100.
For **Gambia vs. Somalia**, FootProbability selects Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with an EV of +33.9%. The calculated probable score is 1-1.
The same logic applies to Sweden vs. Romania: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.24, a model score of 66/100, an EV of +33.5%, and a probable scoreline of 1-1.
These two matches have a higher score than the India vs. Panama "Strong Match," but they are listed as **Tracked Matches** rather than official Value Bets.
Turkey vs. France: odds of 2.77 for Under 2.5 goals.
The system's third pick also merits attention. Turkey – France Under 2.5 @2.77 scores 61/100 and has a theoretical EV of +66.3%.
The odds for this market are particularly high. Here again, this EV should be interpreted as the difference calculated between the model's probability and the available odds, rather than as a 66.3% probability of success.
Other selections score above 50/100.
The 2-out-of-3 system is not the only area where high scores appear. Nigeria vs. Madagascar Under 2.5 @2.01 reaches 54/100 with +18.7% EV, while Morocco vs. Gabon Under 2.5 @2.21 scores 53/100 with +23.6% EV.
In the UEFA Nations League, the **Italy vs. Belgium Under 2.5 goals @2.00** bet also reaches a score of **56/100**, with an EV of +19.8%.
However, these remain **tracked matches**. Therefore, they should not be presented as official Value Bets, despite their attractive odds.
Atletico Nacional favorite of the day
The market favorite identified by FootProbability is **Atletico Nacional against Millonarios**. Its win probability, as calculated by the model, stands at **54.2%**, with odds of **1.70**.
On the detailed match page, however, the main prediction displayed is BTTS Yes @1.65, with a score of only 35/100 and a negative EV of -10.5%.
This makes it possible, once again, to distinguish the market favorite from the main prediction calculated for the match.
FootProbability remains selective after going 4 for 4.
So, September 25, 2026, follows a stellar performance by the Value Bets the previous day. Yet, a 4-for-4 record changes nothing about the method: today, FootProbability is selecting just 2 Value Bets out of 34 matches analyzed.
The India vs. Panama BTTS Yes @2.15 match is a key pick to watch. Meanwhile, the "2-out-of-3" system features three "Under 2.5" selections with scores ranging from 61 to 66/100 and an average of 64/100.
Whether after a winning day or a losing day, the principle remains the same: analyze the probabilities, look for value, and record all results without retrospectively altering the selections.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A value bet, positive EV, or high model score never guarantees the outcome of a match. Gamble responsibly.