This Monday, October 26, 2026, FootProbability continues its daily analysis of football matches, with 40 games examined and 5 "Value Bets" identified. Today, our statistical model highlights three optimized selections: Deportes Tolima vs. Deportivo Pasto, Técnico Universitario vs. Mushuc Runa, and Zakynthos vs. Pyrgos 1968.
These predictions are based on a comparison between the probabilities calculated by our model and the available odds. The goal is to identify a positive expected value (EV), while being careful not to conflate a statistical opportunity with a guaranteed outcome.
⭐ Optimized pick of the day: Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto
Prediction: Both teams to score (BTTS Yes)
- Odds: 2.18
- EV : +14,8 %
- Confidence: 52.6%
- Model score: 48/100
For this Colombian match, FootProbability favors the BTTS Yes market—meaning that both teams will score a goal.
With odds of 2.18, the implied market probability is approximately 45.9%. Our model estimates this probability at 52.6%, resulting in a positive expected value of +14,8 %.
This difference constitutes the primary statistical argument in favor of the selection. However, it does not guarantee that both teams will score.
With a score of 48/100, Deportes Tolima vs. Deportivo Pasto ranks as the top optimized opportunity of the day. Its confidence level remains moderate, so this selection should be approached with caution.
🏆 Top 3 FootProbability for October 26, 2026
| Rang | Encounter | predictions | Odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto | BTTS Yes | 2,18 | +14,8 % |
| 🥈 | Técnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa | Over 2.5 goals | 2,19 | +11,2 % |
| 🥉 | Zakynthos – Pyrgos 1968 | Over 2.5 goals | 2,11 | +10,3 % |
🥈 Técnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa: more than 2.5 goals
Pronostic : Over 2,5 buts | Cote : 2,19 | EV : +11,2 %
Our second selection concerns the match between Técnico Universitario and Mushuc Runa SC.
FootProbability estimates the likelihood of seeing at least three goals at 50.8%, compared to approximately 45.7% based on the odds offered.
This difference makes it possible to identify a positive EV of +11.2%.
The model score reaches 41/100, placing this matchup second in the optimized rankings. While the probability gap looks promising on paper, the level of confidence remains limited.
🥉 Zakynthos – Pyrgos 1968: Over 2.5 goals
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals | Rating: 2.11 | EV: +10.3%
For the third selection, FootProbability also opts for the goals market.
The model estimates the probability of at least three goals in this match at 52.3%, compared to an implied probability of approximately 47.4% based on the odds.
The calculated EV thus reaches +10.3%, with a model score of 40/100.
This selection rounds out our Top 3, but its relatively low score suggests a measured approach is in order.
📊 What do today’s statistics tell us?
The FootProbability dashboard displays the following indicators:
| Indicator | Result |
|---|---|
| Matches analyzed | 40 |
| Value bets detected | 5 |
| Displayed average EV | +16,8 % |
| Moderate level of confidence indicated | 55,8 % |
| Average score of the Top 3 | 43/100 |
| Average EV of the Top 3 | +12,1 % |
The three optimized selections show a positive expected value according to our model, but their scores remain between 40 and 48/100.
This is an essential part of our approach: a positive EV does not mean that a bet has a high probability of success.
Probabilities remain estimates, which may diverge from actual results.
🔬 How does FootProbability select its predictions?
FootProbability relies on a statistical approach—notably employing Poisson and Dixon-Coles models—to estimate the probabilities for various football betting markets.
The system analyzes 1N2 results, Over/Under markets, and BTTS bets, before comparing its estimates against the odds on offer.
The formula for expected value is:
EV = (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
A positive EV indicates that the model estimates a probability of success higher than the one implied by the odds.
Our optimized Value Bets are selected based on specific criteria, distinct from the general ranking of all matches. They are now presented with a focus on the model-predicted score, followed by EV (Expected Value) and a confidence rating to help distinguish between the selections.
This method aims to make opportunities clearer and to facilitate tracking them over time.
📈 Performance: nearly 200 optimized bets concluded
Since the launch of real-time tracking for optimized Value Bets on September 21, 2026, we have recorded the following:
- 188 Paris locations closed
- 97 winning bets
- 51.9% success rate
- +25.82 profit units
- +13.8% ROI
These results are positive for the period under review, even though profitability has declined compared to a previous reporting period.
Our next goal is to reach 200 completed optimized bets, in order to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of performance by market and by score level.
Historical results obviously do not guarantee future profitability.
⚽ Access full analyses for free
The FootProbability member area allows you to view analyzed matches, estimated probabilities, odds, Value Bets, and model indicators.
The selections are also included on our various media to facilitate their consultation.
👉 Accéder à l’espace membre FootProbability
Conclusion: three opportunities to be approached with caution
This Monday, October 26, 2026, our optimized Top 3 highlights Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto (BTTS Yes at 2.18), Técnico Universitario – Mushuc Runa (Over 2.5 to 2.19) and Zakynthos – Pyrgos 1968 (Over 2.5 to 2.11).
These three predictions illustrate the search for statistical opportunities conducted daily by FootProbability. With an average score of 43/100, they should, however, be viewed as selections to be followed with caution, rather than as outcomes that can be expected with certainty.
Our priority remains transparency: publishing our analyses, tracking results, and evaluating the method over time.
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