FootProbability analyzes another action-packed day this Tuesday, September 29, 2026. The model covers 55 matches and identifies 9 Value Bets. The average EV of the selections is +12.8%, and the average confidence level stands at 51.7%. Following yesterday’s highly selective slate, the number of opportunities has increased, yet the model continues to filter matches based on its criteria.
Results for September 28: 4 winning predictions out of 5
The day of September 28th ended with **4 winning predictions out of 5 recorded results**, an 80% success rate. The featured match between Japan and Venezuela was offered with a "Both Teams to Score – Yes" pick at odds of 2.24. Japan won 2–1, making the prediction a winner.
Marko – Panthrakikos (BTTS: Yes @2.02) also came in with a final score of 2–1. Deportivo Cali – Águilas Doradas (Under 2.5 @1.70) and South Korea – Uruguay (Over 2.5 @2.25) round out the winning results. The only loss was the bet on a Leganés victory (@3.00) against Castellón.
For the three selections classified strictly as "Value" in the tracker, the record stands at **2 wins and 1 loss**. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, this yields a profit of **+0.95 units**, representing an ROI of **+31.7%**. However, these results reflect a single day's performance and must be viewed within the context of the model's long-term track record.
Big Match: Australia vs. Brazil
The Featured Match for September 29 is Australia vs. Brazil. FootProbability selects Under 2.5 goals @2.30. The prediction has a model score of 61/100, an EV of +26.1%, and a confidence level of 54.8%. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1.
This pick follows two consecutive winning "Strong Match" selections: the Under 2.5 goals bet for Santos Laguna vs. CF Pachuca won on September 27, followed by the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" bet for Japan vs. Venezuela on September 28. However, this streak is merely descriptive; every new match carries its own level of uncertainty.
FootProbability Top 3 for September 29
Australia vs. Brazil logically takes the top spot in the Top 3 with the "Under 2.5 goals" pick at odds of 2.30 and a score of 61/100. The second selection is Sagan Tosu vs. Tokyo Verdy, featuring a Sagan Tosu win at odds of 2.90; the model score is 46/100, with an EV of +34.9% and a confidence level of 46.5%.
Third place goes to Fukushima United – Mito Hollyhock. The model selects BTTS Yes at 1.92, with a score of 45/100, an EV of +10.0%, and a confidence level of 57.3%. Thus, only one of the top three selections exceeds a score of 50/100 today. The ranking reflects available opportunities without attempting to artificially present three high scores.
A 2-out-of-3 system with high odds
The 2-out-of-3 system features a distinctive profile today. The first selection is Somalia vs. Ivory Coast, Under 2.5 goals @3.50, with a score of 61/100, 60.6% confidence, and an EV of +112.1%.
Australia vs. Brazil (Under 2.5 goals @2.30) is the second selection, with a score of 61/100 and +26.1% EV. Finally, Lesotho vs. Morocco (Under 2.5 goals @3.76) rounds out the system with a score of 60/100, 58.5% confidence, and +120.1% EV.
The system thus shows an average score of 61/100 and an average EV of +86.1%. The very high EV values for Somalia vs. Ivory Coast and Lesotho vs. Morocco indicate a significant gap between the probabilities estimated by FootProbability and the available odds. However, a high EV does not mean that a prediction is guaranteed to win.
9 value bets detected today
Out of the **55 matches analyzed**, FootProbability identifies only **9 Value Bets**. The Australia vs. Brazil match holds the highest score among these selections, with 61/100.
The J-League Cup offers several opportunities. For Sagan Tosu vs. Tokyo Verdy, a Sagan Tosu win is available at odds of 2.90. Fukushima United vs. Mito Hollyhock is selected for "Both Teams to Score – Yes" at 1.92. Kitakyushu vs. Nagoya Grampus and Gainare Tottori vs. V-Varen Nagasaki are also recommended for "Both Teams to Score – Yes," at odds of 1.84 and 1.85, respectively.
Ehime FC vs. FC Tokyo rounds out the BTTS selections for this competition with odds of 1.83. Two other Japanese matches feature a home win: Matsumoto Yamaga at 2.71 and Jubilo Iwata at 2.28. However, their scores of 29/100 and 25/100 place them in the "Risky" category.
Finally, in Wales, **Cardiff MET vs. Haverfordwest County AFC** is featured, with a Cardiff MET win at odds of 2.28. The model score is 40/100, and the EV is +13.3%.
No favorite selected today.
Another notable feature of the day: **no market favorite meets FootProbability's criteria**. Consequently, the model does not propose a "Favorite of the Day."
This is an important aspect of how the site works. This section does not need to be filled out on a daily basis. When no team meets the specified criteria, FootProbability prefers not to make a selection. The model does not force any selection.
A day to approach with caution
September 29 offers more opportunities than the previous day, with **55 matches analyzed and 9 Value Bets**, though confidence levels vary. The key Australia vs. Brazil match scores 61/100, while several Value Bets remain below 50/100. The "2-out-of-3" system presents high EV but also high odds, requiring a cautious approach.
After a 4-out-of-5 record yesterday, FootProbability is continuing to apply the same method. A good day does not alter the selection rules, just as a bad day should not prompt a search for a "catch-up" bet. Performance must be evaluated based on a large number of predictions and over a sufficiently long period.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Une Value Bet, une EV positive ou un score élevé ne garantit jamais un résultat. Jouez de manière responsable. 18+.