FootProbability approaches Monday, October 5, 2026, with a particularly selective slate of matches. The model analyzes **24 fixtures** and identifies only **2 Value Bets**. The average EV of these opportunities stands at **+22.3%**, while the average confidence level is **51.4%**. In total, 6 matches achieve a model score of 50/100 or higher.
This low volume of value bets is interesting following the much busier days earlier in the month. FootProbability does not aim to generate a fixed number of selections; when few matches meet the criteria, the model simply produces a smaller list of picks.
October 4th Roundup: Value Bets finish in the black.
October 4th shows a very mixed record. Of the **9 results recorded in the tracker**, 4 predictions were winners and 5 were losers, representing an overall success rate of **44.4%**.
The Top 3 had another tough day, going 0 for 3. The picks—Pyrgos 1968 vs. Panionios (BTTS: Yes @2.39), Huracán vs. Aldosivi (Over 2.5 @2.47), and Egypt vs. South Africa (Over 2.5 @2.17)—all failed to land.
Value bets, on the other hand, show significantly better results. USA vs. Mexico (USA win @2.70), Kyrgyzstan vs. Lebanon (Over 2.5 @2.18), Girona vs. Mallorca (Under 2.5 @1.94), and Bucaramanga vs. Junior (Over 2.5 @1.96) were winning bets. Argentina vs. Burkina Faso and Talleres Córdoba vs. Belgrano Córdoba were losing bets.
The record for the Value Bets is therefore **4 wins out of 6**, a success rate of 66.7%. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the 6 units wagered would have yielded 8.78 units—resulting in **+2.78 units and a theoretical ROI of +46.3%**.
This result does not mask the current difficulties facing the Top 3. On the contrary, it demonstrates the value of tracking the model’s various categories separately and retaining all results in the history.
Strong Match: Liechtenstein – Gibraltar
The Featured Match for October 5th is Liechtenstein vs. Gibraltar. FootProbability selects Over 2.5 goals @2.60 with a model score of 50/100. The EV reaches +31.9% and confidence stands at 50.7%.
The model identifies a theoretical value in the Over/Under market, but the score of 50/100 remains moderate. This selection should therefore be viewed as a statistical opportunity rather than a high-confidence prediction.
An incomplete Top 3 today
As an exception, the "Top 3" section features only a single pick. Liechtenstein vs. Gibraltar (Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.60) takes the top spot with a score of 50/100, +31.9% EV, and 50.7% confidence.
FootProbability does not artificially pad the rankings when other matches fail to meet the necessary criteria. This absence of second and third selections is consistent with a matchday where only **2 Value Bets** are identified across all 24 games.
A "2-out-of-3" system with a stronger score
The "2-out-of-3" system currently shows higher scores than the "Strong Match." The first selection is **France vs. Belgium**, Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50. It scores **60/100**, with an EV of **+46.0%** and a confidence level of **58.4%**.
The second pick is Cuba vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis, also for Under 2.5 goals. The odds stand at 2.35, with a score of 59/100, +31.0% EV, and 55.7% confidence. Finally, Italy vs. Türkiye rounds out the system with Under 2.5 goals at 2.53, a score of 55/100, +45.0% EV, and 57.3% confidence.
The system thus achieves an average score of 58/100 and an average EV of +40.7%. A notable feature today is that all three selections are based on the same market: Under 2.5 goals.
Only 2 Value Bets
With only **2 value bets across 24 matches**, October 5th stands out as a very different day from the previous ones. The Liechtenstein vs. Gibraltar match is one of the highlighted opportunities, featuring "Over 2.5 goals" at odds of 2.60 and a stake of 50/100.
This small number should not be viewed as a problem. FootProbability’s goal is not to meet a daily betting quota, but to identify situations that match the model’s criteria.
The other matches may continue to show attractive odds without qualifying as "Value Bets." This is particularly true for several matches included in the 2-out-of-3 system.
Several tracked matches exceed the "Strong Match" threshold.
France vs. Belgium reaches 60/100 with Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50. Cuba vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis follows with 59/100 and Under 2.5 goals at 2.35, while Italy vs. Türkiye scores 55/100 with Under 2.5 goals at 2.53.
Montenegro vs. Armenia also reaches 52/100 with Under 2.5 goals at 2.10, and Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Poland shows 51/100 with Under 2.5 goals at 1.90.
This setup once again illustrates the difference between a model score and a Value Bet. A high score measures the overall quality of the selection according to the model, whereas Value status depends on the specific criteria used to identify an opportunity in the odds.
No favorite for the day
No favorite currently meets FootProbability's criteria. The section therefore remains intentionally blank.
As with the incomplete Top 3 and the low number of Value Bets, the model does not force any selections simply to fill a category. This approach ensures that the same criteria are maintained regardless of the number of available matches.
A day where selection takes precedence over volume.
This Monday, October 5, features only **24 analyzed matches and 2 Value Bets**. The Liechtenstein vs. Gibraltar "Strong Match" scores 50/100, while the "2-out-of-3" system stands out more, with an **average score of 58/100 and an average EV of +40.7%**.
After a positive October 4th for Value Bets—though still a difficult day for the Top 3—FootProbability is sticking to the same method. There is no intention to increase the number of selections or the stake sizes to compensate for previous results.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A value bet, positive EV, or a high score does not guarantee any result. Gamble responsibly. 18+.
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