FootProbability analyzes 45 matches this Wednesday, October 7, 2026. The model identifies 13 Value Bets, with an average EV of +15.0% and an average confidence level of 51.2%. Only three matches exceed the 50/100 threshold, demonstrating that a high number of Value Bets does not automatically imply high model confidence.
The Algerian Ligue 1 currently holds a central position. The three matches analyzed in this competition represent both the day's three highest scores and the entirety of the FootProbability Top 3.
October 6th Roundup: Winning "Match Fort" pick
The initial results recorded for October 6 show a mixed performance. Out of the 9 selections currently in the tracker, FootProbability has recorded 4 winners and 5 losers, representing a 44.4% success rate.
The positive news comes from the top of the rankings. India vs. Uruguay—our Featured Match—was a winner for "Both Teams to Score: Yes" following a spectacular 1-6 result; the tracker ultimately recorded the odds at 2.94 with an EV of +69.3%. Algeria vs. Niger, also a Top 3 pick, won on "Both Teams to Score: Yes" at odds of 2.15 after a 2-1 scoreline. Consequently, the two currently recorded Top 3 picks have a 2/2 success rate.
Value bets, on the other hand, proved more challenging, with 2 winners out of 7. The picks for Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands (BTTS Yes @2.01) and Russia vs. Nigeria (BTTS Yes @1.97) won, while five other selections failed. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the value bets currently show a return of -3.02 units and an ROI of -43.1%.
This difference highlights why we track the performance of the Top 3 and Value Bets separately. The tracker's complete results remain the benchmark for compiling the final records.
Big Match: CS Constantine vs. US Biskra
The key match on October 7 pits CS Constantine against US Biskra in the Algerian Ligue 1. FootProbability selects BTTS Yes @2.26 with a model score of 63/100—the highest score of the day.
The EV reaches **+27.6%** and confidence **56.5%**. The probable score calculated by the model is 1-1. Unlike some high EV values observed yesterday, here we have a more moderate figure accompanied by the best model score among the 45 matches analyzed.
Top 3 FootProbability: Algeria in the spotlight
CS Constantine – US Biskra logically takes the top spot with BTTS Yes @2.26, 63/100, +27.6% EV, and 56.5% confidence.
The second pick is Ben Aknoun – JS El Biar with Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.29. The model assigns it a score of 52/100, +21.6% EV, and 53.1% confidence. CR Belouizdad – Khenchela rounds out the top three with BTTS (Yes) at 2.24, a score of 51/100, +20.5% EV, and 53.8% confidence.
There is a significant gap between the top pick and the other two selections. CS Constantine vs. US Biskra stands out with a score of **63/100**, which is 11 points higher than the second-placed pick.
2-out-of-3 system: three selections between 2.24 and 2.29
The "2-out-of-3" system uses exactly the three selections from the Top 3: CS Constantine vs. US Biskra played as BTTS Yes @2.26, Ben Aknoun vs. JS El Biar as Over 2.5 @2.29, and CR Belouizdad vs. Khenchela as BTTS Yes @2.24.
The system shows an average score of 55/100 and an average EV of +23.3%. The three odds are remarkably close, ranging from 2.24 to 2.29.
The indicative total stake remains between €3 and €5, distributed across the three doubles. The system reduces the impact of a losing selection but still requires at least two correct predictions out of three to yield a return.
13 value bets across 45 matches
FootProbability is currently identifying **13 Value Bets**. The top three are: CS Constantine vs. US Biskra, Ben Aknoun vs. JS El Biar, and CR Belouizdad vs. Khenchela.
The Coppa Italia Serie D then provides several opportunities: Igea Virtus – Reggina, victory for Igea Virtus @3.50; Este – Caldiero Terme, Over 2.5 @2.08; Ancona – Fossombrone, BTTS Yes @1.96; Biellese – Alessandria, Over 2.5 @2.04; Valenzana – Saluzzo, Over 2.5 @1.99; Lentigione – Piacenza, victory for Lentigione @2.51; and Flaminia – Robur Siena, victory for Flaminia @2.39.
For Brazil, the model selects **Vitória vs. Chapecoense** (Under 2.5 goals @1.91) and **Botafogo vs. Vasco da Gama** (Botafogo win @2.63). Finally, **Mexico vs. Chile** rounds out the value bets with "Both Teams to Score – Yes" @1.82.
Igea Virtus – Reggina: the biggest EV outside the Top 3
Among the secondary selections, **Igea Virtus – Reggina** particularly stands out. An Igea Virtus win is offered at **3.50** and yields an EV of **+54.3%**.
However, its model score is only **44/100**, with a "Caution" badge. This is a good example of the difference between odds deemed attractive and a selection considered robust enough to make the Top 3.
At the other end of the spectrum, Lentigione and Flaminia score only 27/100 and 24/100, respectively. They remain mathematical "Value Bets," but their risk level is clearly flagged.
Only three matches with a score of 50/100 or higher.
This is probably the most interesting figure of the day: out of 45 matches analyzed, only 3 reach a score of 50/100 or higher.
These three matches make up the "Top 3" and the "2-out-of-3" system. The other ten Value Bets have scores below 50/100.
This clearly illustrates how FootProbability works: Value Bet and the model score do not measure the same thing. EV looks for a favorable discrepancy between the estimated probability and the odds, whereas the score allows for ranking the overall quality of the selections.
No favorite for the day
No market favorite meets the FootProbability criteria today. The category therefore remains empty.
The model does not artificially select a team simply to offer a "Favorite of the Day." The same principle applies to all sections: no selection is forced.
An interesting day to test the model's hierarchy.
October 7th will be particularly interesting to analyze once the results are in. We have **13 Value Bets**, but only three selections at 50/100 or higher.
This will allow for a direct comparison between the performance of the leading group and that of low-scoring Value Bets. It is also relevant to the optimization tests we are conducting: over time, we will be able to verify whether score-based filtering genuinely improves selection quality and ROI.
Both winners and losers will remain in the history log. It is this transparency and the accumulation of data that will gradually make it possible to assess the model's true relevance.
FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.
⚠️ Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A value bet, positive EV, or a high score never guarantees a result. Gamble responsibly. 18+.
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