The 2026 World Cup is entering its decisive phase with the final Round of 16 matches to be played. Following the qualifications of France (1-0) and Morocco, several prestigious matches still await football fans. The statistical model FP Analyst from FootProbability, based on the Dixon-Coles algorithm, has already calculated the probabilities of these highly anticipated encounters.
The first clash will pit Mexico against England. Despite England's status, the model gives Mexico a slight advantage with a 48% probability of victory, compared to 27% for England and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely score is 1-1, but overall projections favor the Mexicans. This match promises to be particularly close and could produce one of the surprises of these Round of 16 matches.
The other major match will pit two European neighbors against each other: Portugal and Spain. Here again, the probabilities calculated by FP Analyst predict an extremely close contest. Portugal has a 45% probability of victory, compared to 30% for Spain, while a draw is estimated at 26%. As with the first match, the most likely score is 1-1, proof that the model predicts a very tight encounter where every detail could make the difference.
The third match will feature Brazil against Norway. This matchup is more difficult for the model to interpret. The probabilities remain relatively balanced with a 43% chance of victory for Brazil, 31% for Norway, and a 26% probability of a draw. However, unlike the other two matches, FP Analyst detects no value on this matchup at the currently offered odds. The most likely score is also 1-1, confirming the highly unpredictable nature of this encounter.
Since the start of the competition, the FootProbability model has compared calculated probabilities with the implied probabilities of the odds to identify potential value bets. This approach highlights teams or markets that appear undervalued by bookmakers, while remaining true to a purely statistical method.
The calculations take into account numerous criteria, including the offensive and defensive performances of the teams, their recent form, the quality of the opponents faced, goal statistics, and projections from the Dixon-Coles model. The objective is not to guarantee a result, but to offer an objective estimate of the probabilities of each match.
While France and Morocco have already advanced to the quarterfinals, these three matches promise plenty of twists and turns. Football fans can follow updated probabilities, detailed analyses, and predicted goalscorers directly on FootProbability.com, where the FP Analyst model is updated before each match of the 2026 World Cup.