{"id":1221,"date":"2026-06-10T00:51:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T00:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=1221"},"modified":"2026-06-10T00:51:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T00:51:08","slug":"trois-matchs-a-surveiller-aujourdhui-selon-le-modele-footprobability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/trois-matchs-a-surveiller-aujourdhui-selon-le-modele-footprobability\/","title":{"rendered":"Three matches to watch today according to the FootProbability model"},"content":{"rendered":"Today's matches are limited, but several interesting discrepancies have nonetheless been detected by the FootProbability model. After analyzing the probabilities and comparing them with the odds available on the market, three matches stand out in particular in terms of goals.\n<div class=\"fp-banner-partenaire\">\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=JpteW17g-TSH981P6ET.TrmR7lDHK0y0M18F6f7MPjQ_GA7331V2&#038;aff_var_1=\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n\nThe first match concerns the friendly between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The model assigns a higher probability than that estimated by bookmakers for a match with at least three goals. With odds of 2.77 and an estimated EV of +47%, this match represents the best statistical opportunity of the day according to the model's calculations.\n\nAnother match to watch: Iraq vs. Venezuela. Here again, the offensive projections suggest greater potential than the odds suggest. The detected difference allows this match to be included in the day's value selection with an EV of +24.9%.\n\nIn Spain, the match between Malaga and Las Palmas completes the main selection. Even though the statistical advantage is smaller, the model still detects slight value in a scenario with multiple goals scored during the match.\n\nIn total, the day features 7 clean matches selected after filtering, 3 value bets detected, and an average EV of +31.9%. The model's main recommendation leans towards a 2-out-of-3 system, including Pakistan vs. Afghanistan, Iraq vs. Venezuela, and Malaga vs. Las Palmas.\n\nAs always, these analyses are based on probabilities calculated by the FootProbability model and on identifying discrepancies between statistical estimates and the odds available on the market.","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La journ\u00e9e du jour est marqu\u00e9e par un nombre limit\u00e9 de rencontres, mais plusieurs \u00e9carts int\u00e9ressants ont tout de m\u00eame [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trois matchs \u00e0 surveiller aujourd&#039;hui selon le mod\u00e8le FootProbability -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du jour : FootProbability met en avant Pakistan vs Afghanistan, Iraq vs Venezuela et Malaga vs Las Palmas. 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