On Wednesday, August 12, 2026, FootProbability analyzed 8 matches using its Dixon-Coles\/Poisson statistical model.<\/p>\n
Among these matches, 4 Value Bets were identified. However, not all opportunities present the same level of data quality.<\/p>\n
For the main selections, FootProbability now favours matches with complete real statistics, without using the fallback data system.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd25 Today's best picks
\n\ud83e\udd47 Rapid Vienna \u2013 Paide<\/p>\n
Comp\u00e9tition : UEFA Europa Conference League
\nPronostic : BTTS \u2014 Les deux \u00e9quipes marquent
\nCote : 2,63
\nEV : +75,8 %
\nScore probable : 2-1
\nConfiance du mod\u00e8le : 54,6 %<\/p>\n
The model estimates the probability of both teams scoring at 66.9%.<\/p>\n
Offensive projections are also high, with 68.9% for Over 2.5.<\/p>\n
Above all, this match benefits from maximum data quality in the FootProbability model:<\/p>\n
Model quality: FULL
\nSource: Real statistics
\nFallback: No<\/p>\n
With a BTTS probability of 66.9% and odds of 2.63, the model identifies a significant gap between its estimate and the price offered by the market.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd48 Talleres C\u00f3rdoba \u2013 Lan\u00fas<\/p>\n
Competition: Liga Profesional Argentina
\nPrediction: Over 2.5 goals
\nOdds: 2.90
\nEV: +7.9%
\nProbable Score: 1-1
\nModel Confidence: 42.8%<\/p>\n
FootProbability estimates the probability of Over 2.5 at 37.2%.<\/p>\n
This selection is unusual: Over 2.5 is not the model's most likely scenario. However, the odds of 2.90 are higher than the theoretical odds corresponding to this probability, which creates a small expected positive value.<\/p>\n
La rencontre b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie elle aussi de donn\u00e9es compl\u00e8tes :<\/p>\n
Model Quality: FULL
\nSource: Real-world statistics
\nFallback: No
\nRisk Level: Low<\/p>\n
It is therefore more a matter of selecting value than making a high-probability prediction.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcca Today's figures<\/p>\n
The situation before the matches on August 12th:<\/p>\n
8 matches analyzed
\n4 Value Bets detected
\nAverage EV: +4.9%
\nAverage confidence: 42.8%<\/p>\n
All Value Bets remain available in the member area, but only matches meeting the most demanding quality criteria are highlighted in the main selection.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udde0 Why only two main selections?<\/p>\n
It's intentional.<\/p>\n
Some of today's matches show a positive EV, but are based on partial data or the contextual_fallback system.<\/p>\n
This is particularly the case of FC Copenhagen \u2013 Debreceni VSC and Paris Saint-Germain \u2013 Aston Villa.<\/p>\n
Rather than artificially completing a Top 3, FootProbability prefers to display two matches with complete statistical data.<\/p>\n
This distinction is important: a Value Bet is not a guarantee of winning. It simply indicates that the probability calculated by the model is likely to make the offered odds mathematically attractive.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfaf FootProbability's selection for August 12th<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd47 Rapid Vienna \u2013 Paide: BTTS Yes @2.63 \u2014 EV +75.8%<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd48 Talleres C\u00f3rdoba \u2013 Lan\u00fas: Over 2.5 @2.90 \u2014 EV +7.9%<\/p>\n
Probabilities and odds may change until kick-off. Selections are based on a statistical model and are never a guarantee of results.<\/p>\n
18+. Gambling involves risks: financial loss, isolation, debt, and addiction. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ce mercredi 12 ao\u00fbt 2026, FootProbability a analys\u00e9 8 rencontres \u00e0 l\u2019aide de son mod\u00e8le statistique Dixon-Coles\/Poisson. Parmi ces matchs, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n