{"id":5894,"date":"2026-08-20T01:22:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:22:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=5894"},"modified":"2026-08-20T01:22:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T01:22:07","slug":"pronostics-foot-20-aout-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-foot-20-aout-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for August 20, 2026: Top 3 and Value Bets of the day"},"content":{"rendered":"

This Thursday, August 20, 2026<\/strong>, the football schedule is particularly packed. FootProbability analyzes 47 matches<\/strong> today and identifies 22 Value Bets<\/strong> based on the probabilities calculated by its model and the available odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between MLS, Europa League and Conference League<\/strong>, several matches stand out. Here are today's Match of the Day<\/strong> and FootProbability Top 3<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2b50 Minnesota United \u2013 Atlanta United: Strong match of the day<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The best score in the model was Minnesota United FC \u2013 Atlanta United FC<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prognosis: Under 2.5<\/strong>
Odds: 2.46<\/strong>
EV: +59.4%<\/strong>
Confidence: 48.6%<\/strong>
Model score: 63\/100<\/strong>
Probable score: 1-0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This match is currently the highest-ranked selection according to FootProbability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MLS match is indeed scheduled within this August 20th window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EV of +59.4% indicates a significant difference between the probability estimated by the model and that corresponding to the available odds. This obviously does not guarantee that the bet will be successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc6 Top 3 FootProbability for August 20, 2026<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd47 Minnesota United \u2013 Atlanta United<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Under 2.5 @2.46<\/strong>
EV: +59.4%<\/strong>
Confidence: 48.6%<\/strong>
Score: 63\/100<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd48 FC Sion \u2013 Ajax<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

FC Sion victory @4.10<\/strong>
EV: +101.6%<\/strong>
Confidence: 49.2%<\/strong>
Score: 60\/100<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the boldest selection of the Top 3. The odds of 4.10 partly explain the particularly high EV detected by the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference League play-off Sion\u2013Ajax<\/strong> is indeed listed by UEFA for this August 20th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd49 Sporting Kansas City \u2013 St. Louis City<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Under 2.5 @2,60<\/strong>
EV : +32,7 %<\/strong>
Trust : 44,0 %<\/strong>
Score : 60\/100<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The derby completes the FootProbability Top 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcca A day full of opportunities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The model now covers 47 matches<\/strong>, including 22 classified as Value Bets<\/strong> and 17 displaying a model score of at least 50\/100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other interesting selections include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Portland Timbers \u2013 San Diego : Under 2.5 @3,25<\/strong>, EV +50,4 %, score 59\/100 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Benfica \u2013 Aarhus : Under 2.5 @3,40<\/strong>, EV +68,0 %, score 58\/100 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Inter Turku \u2013 FC Copenhagen : Under 2.5 @2,32<\/strong>, EV +36,8 %, score 57\/100 ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Los Angeles Galaxy \u2013 San Jose: San Jose victory @3.10<\/strong>, EV +38.2%, score 59\/100.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    What is a Value Bet?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    A Value Bet appears when the probability estimated by the model is greater than that implicitly represented by the available odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A positive EV is therefore not a certain prediction<\/strong>. It indicates that, based on the calculated probabilities, the proposed price may have an interesting theoretical value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is why FootProbability combines several indicators: EV, confidence, actual odds and model score<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why not simply choose the largest EV?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Because a very high EV can also be associated with a particularly uncertain selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    August 20th provides good examples. Some selections show EVs exceeding +100%, but are still classified as Match watched<\/strong> when other criteria are insufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The FootProbability ranking therefore seeks to highlight a compromise between detected value and statistical quality<\/strong>, rather than automatically selecting the highest odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \ud83c\udfaf The Top 3 to Remember<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    \ud83e\udd47 Minnesota United \u2013 Atlanta United : Under 2.5 @2,46<\/strong>
    \ud83e\udd48 FC Sion \u2013 Ajax : Sion @4,10<\/strong>
    \ud83e\udd49 Sporting Kansas City \u2013 St. Louis City : Under 2.5 @2,60<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As the odds can fluctuate, the calculated value may also change during the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    FootProbability predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Sports betting involves a risk of loss. Gamble responsibly.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Ce jeudi 20 ao\u00fbt 2026, le programme football est particuli\u00e8rement charg\u00e9. FootProbability analyse aujourd\u2019hui 47 rencontres et d\u00e9tecte 22 Value […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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