This Friday, August 21, 2026, FootProbability takes a close look at another particularly rich day of football.<\/p>\n
The analysis model today analyzes 55 matches and detects 38 Value Bets, with an average EV of +35.4% and an average confidence of 45.9%.<\/p>\n
Among all these matches, three selections stand out in particular according to the FootProbability score.<\/p>\n
\u2b50 FC Levadia Tallinn \u2013 Trans Narva: the Strong Match of the day<\/p>\n
The best score for the model today belongs to the Estonian league match between FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva.<\/p>\n
Prediction: BTTS Yes \u2014 Both Teams to Score
\nOdds: 2.10
\nEV: +18.9%
\nConfidence: 72.1%
\nModel Score: 71\/100
\nProbable Score: 2-0<\/p>\n
What particularly distinguishes this selection is its confidence level: 72.1%, significantly higher than the average for the day.<\/p>\n
The model also detects a positive Expected Value of +18.9% at a rate of 2.10.<\/p>\n
However, be aware that high confidence or a positive EV never guarantees the outcome of a match. These indicators only represent the statistical evaluation produced by the FootProbability model.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfc6 Top 3 FootProbability du 21 ao\u00fbt 2026
\n\ud83e\udd47 FC Levadia Tallinn \u2013 Trans Narva<\/p>\n
Prediction: BTTS Yes
\nRating: 2.10
\nEV: +18.9%
\nConfidence: 72.1%
\nModel score: 71\/100<\/p>\n
Levadia \u2013 Trans Narva takes first place in the ranking and becomes the FootProbability Strong Match of the day.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd48 Standard Li\u00e8ge \u2013 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re<\/p>\n
Next stop, Belgium for the second selection.<\/p>\n
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
\nOdds: 2.10
\nEV: +42.6%
\nConfidence: 48.6%
\nModel score: 68\/100<\/p>\n
The model here anticipates a potentially favorable match with at least three goals, with a particularly interesting EV of +42.6%.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd49 SC St. T\u00f6nis \u2013 Eintracht Frankfurt<\/p>\n
Third place goes to a DFB-Pokal match.<\/p>\n
Prediction: BTTS Yes
\nRating: 2.35
\nEV: +49.1%
\nTrust: 42.1%
\nModel score: 60\/100<\/p>\n
With a rating of 2.35 and an EV of +49.1%, this selection completes the Top 3 of the model for this Friday.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcca 55 matches analyzed today<\/p>\n
The program for August 21st is much more extensive than some previous days.<\/p>\n
FootProbability lists:<\/p>\n
55 matches analyzed
\n38 Value Bets
\n28 matches with a score \u2265 50\/100
\nAverage EV: +35.4%
\nAverage Confidence: 45.9%<\/p>\n
The analyses cover several European championships, the DFB-Pokal, Ligue 1, Ligue 2, the English Premier League, Serie B, La Liga, the Japanese J1 League as well as various international championships.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd0e Some other Value Bets to watch out for<\/p>\n
The Top 3 represents the highest-ranked selections, but other opportunities also emerge from the model.<\/p>\n
In Germany, Hansa Rostock \u2013 VfB Stuttgart is associated with a prediction Under 2.5 @2.88, with an EV of +33.8% and a model score of 58\/100.<\/p>\n
Still in DFB-Pokal, Preu\u00dfen M\u00fcnster \u2013 Karlsruher SC emerges with a victory for M\u00fcnster @3.70, with an EV of +63.6% and a score of 55\/100.<\/p>\n
In the English Premier League, the model selects BTTS Yes @2.50 on Arsenal \u2013 Coventry, for an EV of +44.2% and a score of 56\/100.<\/p>\n
And in France, Marseille \u2013 Strasbourg is trading below 2.5 @2.55, with an EV of +12.2%.<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udca1 What is a Value Bet?<\/p>\n
A Value Bet appears when the probability estimated by the model makes a price potentially more attractive than what the market indicates.<\/p>\n
Prenons un exemple simplifi\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Si une cote correspond \u00e0 une probabilit\u00e9 implicite de 40 %, mais qu’un mod\u00e8le estime l’\u00e9v\u00e9nement \u00e0 50 %, il existe th\u00e9oriquement un \u00e9cart favorable.<\/p>\n
This difference can result in a positive Expected Value (EV).<\/p>\n
This does not mean that the bet will win.<\/p>\n
A bet with positive value can lose, and a bet with negative value can win. The concept of value becomes most meaningful when studied across a large number of selections.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udde0 Why don't the Top 3 correspond to the highest EV?<\/p>\n
This is an important point in the FootProbability method.<\/p>\n
Le classement ne consiste pas simplement \u00e0 s\u00e9lectionner les trois EV les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es.<\/p>\n
Some of today's matches show spectacular EVs, but remain classified as Match watched.<\/p>\n
For example, Holywell \u2013 Barry Town shows an EV of +134.3% at odds of 6.05, but is not classified as a Value Bet.<\/p>\n
For example, Holywell \u2013 Barry Town shows an EV of +134.3% at odds of 6.05, but is not classified as a Value Bet.<\/p>\n
FootProbability therefore combines different criteria to establish its hierarchy: available odds, EV, confidence and model score.<\/p>\n
The goal is not to confuse high odds with the best statistical opportunity.<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udfaf The 3 predictions to remember today<\/p>\n
The FootProbability Top 3 for August 21, 2026 is therefore:<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd47 Levadia Tallinn \u2013 Trans Narva : BTTS Oui @2,10
\nScore mod\u00e8le : 71\/100<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd48 Standard Li\u00e8ge \u2013 RAAL La Louvi\u00e8re : Over 2.5 @2,10
\nModel score: 68\/100<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd49 SC St. T\u00f6nis \u2013 Eintracht Frankfurt : BTTS Oui @2,35
\nScore mod\u00e8le : 60\/100.<\/p>\n
Odds can change right up until the start of the matches. A value bet identified during the analysis may therefore become more or less attractive if the market shifts.<\/p>\n
FootProbability predictions are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Sports betting involves the risk of loss. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ce vendredi 21 ao\u00fbt 2026, FootProbability passe au crible une nouvelle journ\u00e9e particuli\u00e8rement riche en football. Le mod\u00e8le analyse aujourd\u2019hui […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5898","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n