{"id":6734,"date":"2026-09-09T09:20:15","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T09:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6734"},"modified":"2026-09-09T09:20:18","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T09:20:18","slug":"crise-financiere-football-francais-om-ol-ligue-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/crise-financiere-football-francais-om-ol-ligue-1\/","title":{"rendered":"French football in crisis: why OM, OL, and other clubs must cut spending"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For years, major French clubs have tried to remain competitive against an increasingly wealthy Premier League and European giants with vast revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in 2026, economic reality is catching up with part of Ligue 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olympique de Marseille and Olympique Lyonnais are the most visible examples of this. Two historic clubs, two different models, but the same necessity: cutting costs and restoring financial balance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And behind them, a large part of the French football business model is now being called into question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcfa The number one problem: the collapse of TV revenues.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To understand the situation, one must start with a figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the 2026\u20132027 season, French football is expected to generate approximately \u20ac412 million in gross broadcasting revenue<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, after the various deductions, charges, and solidarity mechanisms, only around **\u20ac184 million is ultimately expected to be distributed to the 18 Ligue 1 clubs**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The comparison with the rest of Europe is stark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Premier League benefits from a domestic contract worth approximately \u00a36.75 billion over four seasons<\/strong>, or around \u00a31.7 billion per season<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

French clubs must therefore face the same competitors in the player market with incomparably lower broadcasting revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And when a club builds its budget by anticipating European revenues or major player sales, the risk becomes considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd35\u26aa OM: over \u20ac100m in losses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The case of Marseille is particularly revealing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The accounts closed on June 30, 2025, show a net loss of **\u20ac104.8 million**, an unprecedented figure for OM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Income excluding transfers had fallen by 34%<\/strong>, notably due to the absence of European competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the total wage bill, including social security contributions, amounted to approximately \u20ac153.7 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, OM had built a cost structure requiring very substantial revenue to break even.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2014and the Champions League in particular\u2014was no longer merely a sporting objective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was becoming an economic necessity.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This dependence is dangerous because European qualification remains, by definition, uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UEFA and the DNCG eventually stepped in.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The situation is no longer merely theoretical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UEFA has confirmed that Marseille failed to meet the final target of its financial agreement for the 2025\u20132026 season, particularly regarding the rule concerning football-related results. The European governing body also highlights the exceptional collapse of French broadcasting revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In France, the DNCG has decided to cap OM\u2019s wage bill for the 2026\u20132027 season<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This partly explains the austerity measures seen in Marseille.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it can be frustrating from a sporting perspective while being financially necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd34\ud83d\udd35 Lyon: an even deeper problem<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In Lyon, the situation is different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OL has drastically cut its spending but still has to absorb the financial legacy of previous years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of December 31, 2025, Eagle Football Group reported:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u20ac616.3 million in financial debt<\/strong>, compared with \u20ac517.9 million six months earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shareholders' equity was negative at \u2212\u20ac347.9 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The net result for the first half of the year stood at \u2212\u20ac186.5 million<\/strong>, although a significant portion stemmed from receivable write-downs linked to the former Eagle Football structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These figures are impressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they tell only part of the story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lyon has already begun its turnaround.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There has been a dramatic improvement in the club's day-to-day operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBITDA went from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u221246,1 M\u20ac \u2192 \u22122,2 M\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

in just one year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The six-monthly wage bill also went from approximately:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

99,2 M\u20ac \u2192 60,4 M\u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

or a reduction close to 40 %<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OL is therefore showing something interesting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A club can still be extremely financially fragile while having already corrected a large part of its business model.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem for Lyon now lies primarily in the weight of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Three years to rebuild OL<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

And we now have an indication of the duration of the recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Michael Gerlinger, the Managing Director of OL, explained on September 7 that it would take at least three years to restructure the club.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also revealed that Lyon had once again sold players worth nearly \u20ac70 million this summer<\/strong>, following sales of around \u20ac100 million the previous year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And he makes no secret of the fact that OL will likely have to continue selling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Failure to qualify for the Champions League against Fenerbah\u00e7e also resulted in an estimated revenue loss of around \u20ac30 million<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again, we encounter the same issue:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sporting result immediately alters the financial equation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcca French football has become a selling market.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

This is probably the most important consequence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When recurring revenues decline, players become a source of funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Training or buying a young player, developing them, and then reselling them at a profit is becoming almost essential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transfer market is then no longer merely a tool for building a team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It becomes a source of income.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This explains why French clubs can sell a huge number of players while sometimes appearing to weaken in sporting terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that is where a potentially dangerous cycle is created.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lower revenue \u2192 player sales \u2192 weakened squads \u2192 tougher European results \u2192 lower revenue \u2192 further sales.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u26a0\ufe0f But selling isn\u2019t necessarily bad.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, one must avoid drawing an overly simple conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reducing the wage bill or selling a player is not necessarily a sign of poor management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It can even be exactly the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a club consistently spends more than it earns, continuing to invest simply to maintain its sporting ambitions merely postpones the problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lyon is beginning to demonstrate that a very significant reduction in costs can bring operational activity close to the break-even point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marseille is now also attempting to reduce its financial exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real challenge, therefore, lies in finding the balance between austerity and competitiveness<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfaf The Champions League: a probability turned into guaranteed revenue.<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

This is probably the point that interests us most at FootProbability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A club can hope to qualify for the Champions League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He can build a squad capable of achieving that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He may even have a **70% chance** of achieving his goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But 70% is never 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, wages and financial obligations will have to be paid, come what may.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Building a budget that requires European qualification therefore amounts to transforming probabilistic income into a certain expense<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And when the adverse scenario plays out, the business model immediately becomes fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OL has just experienced this firsthand: its elimination in the Champions League play-offs reportedly cost it around \u20ac30 million in potential revenue<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Our FootProbability analysis<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

French football does not necessarily lack big clubs, supporters, or talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is primarily lacking today is sufficiently substantial and predictable recurring revenue<\/strong> to sustain the spending levels to which certain clubs had become accustomed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OM needs to cut back on its spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lyon must rectify several years of imbalances while continuing to sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other clubs, including Monaco, also have their wage bills subject to DNCG oversight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current period could therefore mark a profound shift in the French model:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buy less, recruit better, train more, and sell at the right time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is painful in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this can also produce financially much stronger clubs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For ultimately, there is a common rule shared by sports betting and club management:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

One can take a risk based on a probability. One should never build one's financial survival as if that probability were a certainty.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pendant des ann\u00e9es, les grands clubs fran\u00e7ais ont tent\u00e9 de rester comp\u00e9titifs face \u00e0 une Premier League toujours plus riche […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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