{"id":6753,"date":"2026-09-11T01:30:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T01:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6753"},"modified":"2026-09-11T01:54:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T01:54:39","slug":"pronostics-football-11-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-11-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 11, 2026: 65 matches analyzed and 11 value bets"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Following a successful day on September 10\u2014highlighted by the win of **Bokelj**, the top pick from the Top FootProbability list\u2014the model returns this Friday, September 11, with significantly broader coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the agenda today: 65 matches analyzed<\/strong>, 11 Value Bets<\/strong>, an average EV of +22.6%<\/strong>, and an average confidence level of 46.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcca Results of the September 10th predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s results were mixed, though there was a notable success with the main selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc6 Bokelj delivers at @2.89<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bokelj \u2013 Otrant-Olympic : 2-1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FootProbability avait plac\u00e9 Bokelj vainqueur<\/strong> en t\u00eate de ses s\u00e9lections. Le pari passe avec une cote finale enregistr\u00e9e \u00e0 2,89<\/strong>. \u2705<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is exactly the type of selection we are looking for: a probability deemed higher than the one implicitly estimated by the market, with odds high enough to be attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, the other Value Bets recorded in the visible history fared worse:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Austin \u2013 Colorado Rapids : 1-1<\/strong> \u274c
New York City FC \u2013 New England : 1-2<\/strong> \u274c
Chicago Fire \u2013 Inter Miami : 1-1<\/strong> \u274c
Portland Timbers \u2013 St. Louis City : 2-2<\/strong> \u274c
Arsenal Tivat \u2013 Mladost DG : 0-1<\/strong> \u274c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A day that serves as another reminder that a Value Bet is never synonymous with a winning bet<\/strong>. EV measures a theoretical advantage\u2014the gap between the model's calculated probability and the odds offered\u2014not the certainty of the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udde9 Tip 2 of 3: 1 pick out of 3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We also checked the three matches making up the system proposed yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Panathinaikos 3-1 Kifisia<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f BTTS Oui @2,20 : \u2705<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USM Alger 2-0 JS El Biar<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f BTTS Oui @2,17 : \u274c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Como 4-1 RB Leipzig<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f Under 2,5 @2,46 : \u274c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result is therefore 1\/3<\/strong>, and the 2-out-of-3 system is a loss<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We deliberately include these results in our performance records: FootProbability\u2019s goal is to measure the model\u2019s performance over time, rather than selecting only favorable matchdays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

\u26bd Predictions for September 11, 2026<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The day is much more packed, featuring:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

65 matches analyzed \u2022 11 Value Bets \u2022 Average EV +22.6% \u2022 Average confidence 46.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several leagues are represented, including those of France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Japan, Armenia, and Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2b50 Strong Match: Van \u2013 BKMA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The FootProbability Strong Match for September 11<\/strong> takes us to Armenia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Van \u2013 BKMA<\/strong>
\ud83c\udfaf Prediction: Victoire de Van<\/strong>
\ud83d\udcb0 Rating: 3,32<\/strong>
\ud83d\udcc8 EV : +60,7 %<\/strong>
\u2b50 Model score: 57\/100<\/strong>
\ud83e\udde0 Confiance : 48,4 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, the model detects a significant discrepancy between its own estimate and the odds offered for a home win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With odds exceeding 3.30<\/strong>, the potential is attractive, though the confidence level naturally calls for a measured approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83c\udfc6 Top 3 FootProbability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The model's top three picks today are all home wins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd47 Van \u2013 BKMA<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f Victoire de Van @3,32<\/strong>
\u2b50 Score : 57\/100<\/strong>
\ud83d\udcc8 EV : +60,7 %<\/strong>
\ud83e\udde0 Confiance : 48,4 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd48 Venezia \u2013 Fiorentina<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f Victoire de Venezia @3,03<\/strong>
\u2b50 Score : 57\/100<\/strong>
\ud83d\udcc8 EV : +45,5 %<\/strong>
\ud83e\udde0 Confiance : 48,0 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udd49 Nancy \u2013 Reims<\/strong>
\u27a1\ufe0f Victoire de Nancy @3,00<\/strong>
\u2b50 Score : 57\/100<\/strong>
\ud83d\udcc8 EV : +45,3 %<\/strong>
\ud83e\udde0 Confiance : 48,4 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three ratings are high. We must therefore especially see this Top 3 as the three most interesting differences detected by the model<\/strong>, and not as three classic favorites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83e\udde9 System 2 out of 3 for today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Following yesterday\u2019s system failure, there is no change to the method: we are sticking to the same criteria and allowing the results to accumulate over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\ufe0f\u20e3 Pumas \u2013 Le\u00f3n<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Under 2,5 buts @2,06<\/strong>
Score : 66\/100<\/strong>
EV : +21,9 %<\/strong>
Confidence: 59,2 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\ufe0f\u20e3 MC Oran \u2013 T\u00e9mouchent<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Over 2,5 buts @2,50<\/strong>
Score : 62\/100<\/strong>
EV : +31,3 %<\/strong>
Confidence: 52,5 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\ufe0f\u20e3 APR \u2013 JSK<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u27a1\ufe0f Over 2,5 buts @2,46<\/strong>
Score : 61\/100<\/strong>
EV : +29,1 %<\/strong>
Confidence: 52,5 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system shows an average score of 63\/100<\/strong> and an average EV of +27.4%<\/strong>. FootProbability suggests a total stake of \u20ac3 to \u20ac5, distributed across the three double bets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udee1\ufe0f The logical favorites for September 11<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This category is deliberately different from Value Bets: here, we look for market favorites whose superiority is also confirmed by the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cambrian & Clydach \u2013 Holywell<\/strong>
\u2705 Cambrian & Clydach gagne @1,42<\/strong>
Probabilit\u00e9 mod\u00e8le : 56,5 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il est accompagn\u00e9 de :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be\u015fikta\u015f \u2013 Erzurumspor FK<\/strong>
\u2705 Be\u015fikta\u015f gagne @1,20<\/strong>
Probabilit\u00e9 : 54,5 %<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Riga \u2013 Auda<\/strong>
\u2705 Riga gagne @1,30<\/strong>
Probabilit\u00e9 : 50,3 %<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These selections follow a different logic than the Top 3: less focus on seeking high odds, and more on identifying a favorite that aligns with the model's probabilities.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd0e A few odds to watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La journ\u00e9e pr\u00e9sente \u00e9galement plusieurs \u00e9carts particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KV Mechelen \u2013 Anderlecht<\/strong>: victory for Mechelen @3.90<\/strong>, EV +87.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyoto Sanga \u2013 Kashiwa Reysol<\/strong>: Kyoto victory @3.96<\/strong>, EV +67.6%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And for Al-Faisaly vs. Al-Ittihad<\/strong>, the data even points to an Al-Faisaly win at odds of 4.26<\/strong>, with a calculated EV of +101.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With such significant discrepancies, verifying the actual odds available from bookmakers is essential<\/strong> before drawing any conclusions. Outdated or anomalous odds can significantly inflate the calculated EV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udcc8 A new day to measure the model<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

September 10th perfectly illustrates the FootProbability philosophy: an excellent pick at odds of 2.89 can coexist with several losing predictions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The objective is not to claim to predict each result, but to check on a sufficiently large volume whether the probabilities calculated by the model make it possible to identify interesting odds in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This **September 11**, the **65 matches analyzed and 11 Value Bets detected** offer yet another data-rich day to follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sports betting involves risks. Bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apr\u00e8s une journ\u00e9e du 10 septembre marqu\u00e9e par la r\u00e9ussite de Bokelj, s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9 en t\u00eate du Top FootProbability, le mod\u00e8le […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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