{"id":6762,"date":"2026-09-13T03:44:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T03:44:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6762"},"modified":"2026-09-13T04:00:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T04:00:44","slug":"pronostics-football-13-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-13-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 13, 2026: 150 matches and 58 value bets"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6766\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1-600x720.png 600w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-13-sept.-2026-07_58_41-1.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its daily analysis with another action-packed day. On this <strong>September 13, 2026<\/strong>, the model analyzed <strong>150 matches<\/strong> and identified <strong>58 Value Bets<\/strong>. The average EV stands at <strong>+17.7%<\/strong>, while the average confidence level rises to <strong>52.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before looking at today\u2019s opportunities, let\u2019s review the results from September 12. It was a tough day for the main picks, yet it ended almost even, thanks to several winning bets at high odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">September 12 roundup: a day of near-equilibrium<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability has recorded **28 selections**, with **11 winners and 17 losers**. The success rate therefore stands at **39.3%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Among the best performances, <strong>V-Varen Nagasaki @3.43<\/strong>, <strong>Colwyn Bay @3.11<\/strong>, <strong>SK Beveren @2.80<\/strong>, <strong>Gornik Zabrze @2.75<\/strong>, <strong>Sepsi @2.57<\/strong>, <strong>Bolton @2.55<\/strong> and <strong>Racing Santander @2.50<\/strong>went to the fore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Nevertheless, the day was disappointing regarding the top-ranked picks. The \"Strong Pick,\" **Atlante FC (@2.82)**, suffered a heavy **0\u20133 defeat against Pachuca**. FF Jaro (@3.30) and several other high-EV selections also failed to land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">With a theoretical stake of <strong>1 unit on each selection<\/strong>, the final result is around <strong>-0.07 units<\/strong>, representing an ROI close to <strong>-0.25%<\/strong>. Despite a winning rate of only 39.3%, the high odds make it possible to finish virtually at the break-even point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This also serves as a good illustration of the FootProbability philosophy: a \"value bet\" is not a guarantee of a win. The model looks for situations where the offered odds appear higher than the estimated probability. Performance must therefore be evaluated over a significant number of bets, rather than just a single day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">150 matches analyzed on September 13<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">For today\u2019s slate, <strong>150 matches<\/strong> are covered by FootProbability. The model identifies <strong>58 Value Bets<\/strong>, compared to 28 the previous day. The average EV of these opportunities reaches <strong>+17.7%<\/strong>, with an average confidence level of <strong>52.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is a significant number of \"Value Bets,\" but that obviously does not mean you should play all 58 selections. The FootProbability score helps distinguish the most attractive opportunities from bets that require greater caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2b50 Strong Match: LDU de Quito \u2013 Deportivo Cuenca<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>featured match for September 13<\/strong> is the game between <strong>LDU Quito and Deportivo Cuenca<\/strong>. FootProbability selects <strong>Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This selection achieves an excellent <strong>model score of 79\/100<\/strong>, with <strong>68.7% confidence<\/strong> and an EV of <strong>+29.1%<\/strong>. The probable score calculated by the model is <strong>1-0<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s a different configuration from yesterday\u2019s Match Fort. The rating is lower, but the confidence level and selection score are significantly higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfc6 Top 3 FootProbability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The top spot logically goes to <strong>LDU Quito vs. Deportivo Cuenca: Under 2.5 @1.88<\/strong>. With a score of <strong>79\/100<\/strong>, +29.1% EV, and 68.7% confidence, this pick clearly dominates the day's rankings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In second place, <strong>Getafe \u2013 Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a: BTTS Yes @2.33<\/strong> scores <strong>65\/100<\/strong>, with an EV of <strong>+30.9%<\/strong> and a confidence level of <strong>56.2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The third pick is <strong>America de Cali vs. Deportivo Pasto: BTTS Yes @2.26<\/strong>. It also shows a rating of <strong>65\/100<\/strong>, with <strong>+29.5% EV<\/strong> and <strong>57.3% confidence<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde9 System 2 out of 3 for today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The top three selections also make up the **FootProbability 2-out-of-3 system**. Therefore, at least two of the three selections must be correct for one of the doubles bets to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The first choice is <strong>LDU de Quito \u2013 Deportivo Cuenca, Under 2.5 @1.88<\/strong>. The second is <strong>Getafe \u2013 Deportivo La Coruna, BTTS Yes @2.33<\/strong>. Finally, the third is <strong>America de Cali \u2013 Deportivo Pasto, BTTS Yes @2.26<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The set achieves an <strong>average score of 70\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +29.9%<\/strong>. FootProbability indicates a suggested total stake of <strong>\u20ac3 to \u20ac5<\/strong>, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udee1\ufe0f Today's favorites<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For those who prefer to follow market favorites rather than exclusively seeking out value bets, two teams currently stand out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>Kairat Almaty<\/strong> is the favorite against FK Tobol Kostanay at <strong>1.39<\/strong>, with a model-based probability of <strong>60.1%<\/strong>. <strong>Valur Reykjavik<\/strong> is also the favorite against Thor Akureyri at <strong>1.50<\/strong>, with an estimated probability of <strong>50.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These selections follow a different logic than \"Value Bets\": they represent market favorites confirmed by the model, without requiring the detection of significant positive value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udc8e Other value bets to watch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Beyond the top 3, several selections show interesting indicators. Notably, **Benfica \u2013 Gil Vicente, BTTS Yes @2.46** posts an **EV of +38.3%** and a score of 60\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In Argentina, <strong>Tigre vs. Rosario Central (Over 2.5 goals @2.67)<\/strong> reaches <strong>+41.9% EV<\/strong> with a score of 55\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">You can also keep an eye on <strong>Sturm Graz \u2013 LASK Linz, Under 2.5 @2.33<\/strong>, rated <strong>60\/100<\/strong> with +25.6% EV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, <strong>Jeunesse Sportive Omrane \u2013 ES Metlaoui (Over 2.5 goals @2.75)<\/strong> offers an EV of <strong>+39.7%<\/strong>, but its score of 54\/100 suggests exercising greater caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A day to follow with discipline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">After a day on September 12th that saw results virtually break even\u2014despite a success rate of only 39.3%\u2014FootProbability returns today with **150 matches analyzed and 58 Value Bets**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day's top pick remains **LDU Quito vs. Deportivo Cuenca, Under 2.5 @1.88**, with a score of **79\/100**. The top 3 also features an interesting setup, including two \"Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes\" selections with odds above 2.25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">As always, FootProbability does not aim to predict every result perfectly. The goal is to identify interesting discrepancies between <strong>estimated probabilities and available odds<\/strong>, and then to evaluate performance over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de mani\u00e8re responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit son analyse quotidienne avec une nouvelle journ\u00e9e particuli\u00e8rement riche. Ce 13 septembre 2026, le mod\u00e8le a analys\u00e9 150 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6762","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 13 septembre 2026 : 58 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 13 septembre 2026 : 150 matchs analys\u00e9s, 58 Value Bets, Match Fort \u00e0 79\/100, Top 3 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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