{"id":6777,"date":"2026-09-16T01:31:05","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T01:31:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6777"},"modified":"2026-09-16T01:31:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T01:31:08","slug":"pronostics-football-16-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-16-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 16, 2026: 36 matches and 10 value bets"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6778\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-16-sept.-2026-05_27_43.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">After two difficult days for the tracked selections, FootProbability is continuing its approach without changing course: <strong>analyzing probabilities, seeking value, and publishing results without hiding losing bets<\/strong>. This philosophy aligns with the site\u2019s current positioning, which prioritizes selections with positive expected value over intuition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">On this <strong>September 16, 2026<\/strong>, the day\u2019s outlook shifts significantly. The model analyzes <strong>36 matches<\/strong> and identifies <strong>10 Value Bets<\/strong>. The average EV reaches <strong>+34.5%<\/strong>, while average confidence stands at <strong>48.9%<\/strong>. Notably, <strong>9 matches now achieve a model score of 50\/100 or higher<\/strong>, whereas none reached this threshold yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Update for September 15: another difficult day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Transparency remains essential. Out of the **13 selections tracked in the September 15th record**, FootProbability recorded **4 winners and 9 losers**, representing a success rate of **30.8%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The four winning selections are <strong>Beitar Jerusalem \u2013 Maccabi Petah Tikva, BTTS Yes @1.79<\/strong>, <strong>Ironi Tiberias \u2013 Hapoel Katamon, Over 2.5 @2.10<\/strong>, <strong>Korona Kielce \u2013 Gornik Zabrze, Under 2.5 @1.97<\/strong>, and <strong>Barry Town \u2013 Ammanford AFC, BTTS Yes @2.02<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the four winning bets return **7.88 units from a total stake of 13 units**. The result is therefore **-5.12 units**, representing an ROI of approximately **-39.4%** across these 13 selections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">It is a bad day, and there is no reason to portray it otherwise. A value bet represents a statistical advantage estimated at the time of analysis. <strong>It never guarantees the outcome of a match.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u274c The Super Nova vs. Riga match is not being broadcast.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The featured match on September 15th was <strong>Super Nova vs. Riga: BTTS Yes @1.69<\/strong>. Riga ultimately won <strong>1\u20130<\/strong>, causing the selection to lose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The top 3 picks also finished with a record of **1 winning selection out of 3**. The Beitar Jerusalem vs. Maccabi Petah Tikva \"Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes\" bet at 1.79 won thanks to the 3\u20131 scoreline, whereas the BTTS bets for Super Nova vs. Riga and Holywell vs. Colwyn Bay did not come in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Following the difficulties already encountered on September 14, these results serve as a reminder of why FootProbability\u2019s performance should be evaluated <strong>over a sufficiently long period<\/strong>, rather than based on a handful of matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udcca A different profile for September 16<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today, only <strong>10 Value Bets are detected across 36 matches<\/strong>. However, their average EV reaches <strong>+34.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Another notable development: **9 games have a score of 50\/100 or higher**. Yesterday, the count was zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This obviously does not mean that the day will be a winning one. However, the indicators enable the model to identify several higher-ranked selections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2b50 Big Match: ES Zarzis \u2013 US Monastirienne<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">THE <strong>Match Fort du 16 septembre<\/strong> est <strong>ES Zarzis \u2013 US Monastirienne : BTTS Oui @2,27<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The selection achieves a <strong>model score of 62\/100<\/strong>, with an <strong>EV of +27.7%<\/strong> and a <strong>confidence level of 56.2%<\/strong>. The probable score calculated by FootProbability is <strong>1-1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After yesterday\u2019s \"Strong Match\" rating of just 49\/100, today we have a main selection rated above 60\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">However, the odds of **2.27** remain significant: the model detects value, but the scenario is far from a certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfc6 FootProbability\u2019s Top 3 for September 16<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The top spot logically goes to <strong>ES Zarzis \u2013 US Monastirienne: BTTS Yes @2.27<\/strong>, with a score of 62\/100, +27.7% EV, and 56.2% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In second place, <strong>Sloga Doboj \u2013 Borac Banja Luka: BTTS Yes @2.41<\/strong> scores <strong>60\/100<\/strong>. Its EV reaches <strong>+35.7%<\/strong> with a confidence level of <strong>56.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, **Al-Nahda vs. Al Taawon: Al-Nahda win @3.50** rounds out the top three. The projected EV is very high at **+76.2%**, but its score is only **48\/100** and its confidence level is **50.3%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This third selection therefore calls for greater caution. <strong>A very high EV should never be confused with a high probability of winning.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde9 A particularly interesting \"2-out-of-3\" system to keep an eye on.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today's **2-out-of-3** system stands apart from the main Top 3 and shows higher model scores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The first pick is <strong>Omonia Nicosia \u2013 Celta Vigo: Double Chance 1X @1.75<\/strong>. It scores <strong>69\/100<\/strong>, with a confidence level of <strong>72.6%<\/strong> and an EV of <strong>+27.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second pick is <strong>Anderlecht vs. Lyon: Under 2.5 @2.22<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>67\/100<\/strong>, <strong>60.9%<\/strong> confidence, and an EV of <strong>+35.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, <strong>Olympiakos \u2013 Jagiellonia: Under 2.5 @2.18<\/strong> scores <strong>66\/100<\/strong>, with <strong>59.6% confidence<\/strong> and <strong>+29.9% EV<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The overall result thus achieves an <strong>average score of 67\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +30.8%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is one of the most interesting elements to follow right now, bearing in mind that a \"2-out-of-3\" system requires at least two correct selections to yield a return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udc8e Other high-EV value bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several other selections show significant discrepancies between the probability calculated by the model and the available odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>Viettel \u2013 Melbourne Victory: Viettel win @3.11<\/strong> shows an EV of <strong>+38.2%<\/strong>, but a score of only 45\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In Spain, **Levante \u2013 Athletic Club: Levante win @3.40** reaches **+62.0% EV** with a score of 47\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, <strong>Jeonbuk Motors \u2013 Kashiwa Reysol: Jeonbuk win @3.10<\/strong> offers an EV of <strong>+48.1%<\/strong>, again with a score of 47\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">These examples clearly illustrate the difference between <strong>value and confidence<\/strong>: odds may appear undervalued according to the model without the probability of winning being particularly high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udee1\ufe0f Only one confirmed favorite today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Unlike some days when several favorites stand out, FootProbability shows only one today: <strong>Chico against Alianza Valledupar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Chico's victory is proposed at <strong>1.80<\/strong>, with a model probability of <strong>55.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The small number of confirmed favorites is also informative: the model does not attempt to artificially populate this category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can September 16th pave the way for a rebound?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today\u2019s data is more encouraging than yesterday\u2019s: <strong>9 matches scoring 50\/100 or higher<\/strong>, one \"Strong Match\" at <strong>62\/100<\/strong>, and\u2014most notably\u2014a \"2-out-of-3\" system with an average of <strong>67\/100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">But after two difficult days, the right approach is precisely <strong>not to turn these improved indicators into a promise of results<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FootProbability will therefore continue to measure what actually happens on the pitch. If national teams win, they will be counted; if they lose, they will be too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is by accumulating these results that we will be able to measure the quality of the model and continue to improve it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Les paris sportifs comportent des risques. Jouez de mani\u00e8re responsable et uniquement avec une somme que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s deux journ\u00e9es difficiles pour les s\u00e9lections suivies, FootProbability poursuit son approche sans modifier sa ligne : analyser les probabilit\u00e9s, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 16 septembre 2026 : 10 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 16 septembre 2026 : 36 matchs analys\u00e9s, 10 Value Bets, Match Fort @2,27, Top 3 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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