{"id":6795,"date":"2026-09-19T02:49:05","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T02:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6795"},"modified":"2026-09-19T02:49:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T02:49:17","slug":"pronostics-football-19-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-19-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 19, 2026: 39 value bets and one strong match at 76\/100."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">As is the case every Saturday, the football schedule is particularly packed. Today, FootProbability is analyzing **200 matches** across numerous leagues and competitions. The model identifies **39 Value Bets**, with an **average EV of +15.1%** and an **average confidence level of 52.6%**. Among the matches analyzed, **8 selections have achieved a FootProbability score of 50\/100 or higher**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day features several interesting selections. The \"Strong Match\" scores <strong>76\/100<\/strong>, and the 2-out-of-3 system has an average score of <strong>71\/100<\/strong>. The Top 3 also consists of three selections with odds higher than 2.00. We will now look at the key data from the model for this Saturday, September 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results of the September 18 predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day of September 18 concludes with **26 Value Bets with a final result**. The record stands at **10 winning picks and 16 losing picks**. The success rate is therefore **38.5%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Several selections with attractive odds were winning bets. <strong>Brentford to beat Chelsea @2.70<\/strong> (final score 3-0). <strong>Monza to beat Sassuolo @2.87<\/strong> (score 2-1). <strong>Okzhetpes to beat Zhenys @2.20<\/strong> (score 3-1). The Bucaramanga vs. Independiente Medellin match also saw the <strong>Over 2.5 @2.03<\/strong> bet land, with a final score of 2-2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Other markets were winners. <strong>Aktobe \u2013 Ulytau BTTS Yes @1.83<\/strong>, <strong>Omonia 29is Maiou \u2013 AEK Larnaca BTTS Yes @1.84<\/strong>, <strong>Gent \u2013 \u200b\u200bStandard Li\u00e8ge Over 2.5 @1.93<\/strong>, <strong>Worcester City \u2013 Stratford Town Over 2.5 @2.01<\/strong> and <strong>\u00c1guilas Doradas \u2013 Deportivo Pereira BTTS Yes @2.10<\/strong>are among the positive results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">With a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit per selection, the 26 bets represent a total wager of 26 units. The winning bets yield a return of **21.63 units**. The day's result is therefore **-4.37 units**, representing a **theoretical ROI of -16.8%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">September 18th thus ends in negative territory, following the positive result of September 17th. These fluctuations demonstrate why performance must be analyzed over a longer period. A single day is not sufficient to evaluate the model's overall performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A high EV does not guarantee a result.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">September 18th also provides an interesting example regarding EV. The **Rudes vs. NK Slaven Belupo** match offered a bet on a Rudes win at odds of 3.50, with an EV of **+54.7%**. The match ended 2\u20132, and the bet was lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>MC Alger \u2013 MB Rouisset BTTS Yes @2.55<\/strong> was also among the key selections. The match ended 2\u20130. The BTTS Yes prediction therefore lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These results highlight the role of EV in FootProbability. A high EV indicates that the model detects theoretical value in the odds; it does not mean the outcome is certain. The FootProbability score, confidence, EV, and odds should always be analyzed together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">200 matches analyzed this Saturday, September 19<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1145\" height=\"1374\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-19-sept.-2026-06_45_50.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6796\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-19-sept.-2026-06_45_50.png 1145w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-19-sept.-2026-06_45_50-250x300.png 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1145px) 100vw, 1145px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Saturdays naturally feature a large number of football matches. It is therefore no surprise to find <strong>200 matches analyzed<\/strong> by FootProbability today. The FA Cup, for instance, accounts for <strong>77 matches<\/strong> within the data currently covered by the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Out of the 200 matches, FootProbability identifies **39 Value Bets**. Eight selections achieve a score of 50\/100 or higher. The aim is not to treat all 39 Value Bets as equivalent; the model\u2019s score helps highlight the selections with the best indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong match: Kristiansund BK \u2013 Rosenborg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>Top Pick for September 19<\/strong> is <strong>Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg<\/strong>. The model selects the <strong>Double Chance 1X (Kristiansund or draw) at odds of 2.59<\/strong>. This selection has a <strong>FootProbability score of 76\/100<\/strong>, an <strong>EV of +88.3%<\/strong>, and a <strong>confidence level of 72.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The probable score calculated by the model is <strong>1-1<\/strong>. This projection aligns with the Double Chance 1X selection. The model therefore considers that the offered odds differ significantly from its own estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">With a score of **76\/100**, Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg holds the highest FootProbability rating of the day. The **72.7%** confidence level also exceeds the average confidence for the day's Value Bets. However, the +88.3% EV remains a theoretical figure and does not guarantee the match result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FootProbability Top 3 for September 19<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The Top 3 kicks off with <strong>Kristiansund BK \u2013 Rosenborg, Double Chance 1X @2.59<\/strong>. The pick scores <strong>76\/100<\/strong>, with an EV of +88.3% and 72.7% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second pick is <strong>Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA: Under 2.5 goals @2.24<\/strong>. It has a score of <strong>75\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+33.3%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>59.5%<\/strong>. The third pick is <strong>Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham: BTTS Yes @2.25<\/strong>. It has a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+26.3%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>56.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The odds for all three Top 3 selections are above 2.00. The first two picks also exceed 0.75. This Top 3 selection will therefore be interesting to track in tomorrow's results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Today's 2-out-of-3 system bet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The \"2-out-of-3\" system currently uses the same three selections as the \"Top 3.\" It combines **Kristiansund BK \u2013 Rosenborg 1X @2.59**, **Sporting Hasselt \u2013 Beerschot VA Under 2.5 @2.24**, and **Torquay \u2013 AFC Stoneham BTTS Yes @2.25**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The system achieves an <strong>average score of 71\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +49.3%<\/strong>. The stake suggested by FootProbability is <strong>\u20ac3 to \u20ac5 in total<\/strong>, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The system's principle is simple. Two correct predictions out of three result in one winning double. All three predictions must be correct for all three doubles to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other value bets to follow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Several other value bets score 50\/100 or higher. In the Championship, <strong>QPR vs. Preston (Under 2.5 goals @1.98)<\/strong> scores <strong>59\/100<\/strong> with an EV of +15.2%. In South Africa, <strong>Richards Bay vs. Sekhukhune United (Over 2.5 goals @2.38)<\/strong> reaches <strong>54\/100<\/strong> with an EV of +24.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In Algeria, <strong>Olympique Akbou vs. USM Alger (BTTS: Yes @2.10)<\/strong> scores <strong>53\/100<\/strong> with an EV of +18.2%. In the Premier League, <strong>Everton vs. Ipswich (Over 2.5 @1.73)<\/strong> reaches <strong>51\/100<\/strong> with an EV of +5.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, <strong>IF Brommapojkarna wins against IFK G\u00f6teborg @2.80<\/strong> obtains a score of <strong>50\/100<\/strong> and an EV of <strong>+30.1%<\/strong>. These five selections complete the Top 3 to form the eight Value Bets that reach at least 50\/100 today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Molde is the favorite today.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability identifies <strong>Molde as the favorite against Aalesund<\/strong>. The odds for a Molde victory are <strong>1.29<\/strong>. The probability calculated by the model is <strong>56.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A favorite is not automatically a value bet. The \"favorites\" section lists teams for which the market and the model align. The \"value bet\" section employs a different logic, based on comparing the model's probability with the available odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The major championships are also on the agenda.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Saturday schedule allows FootProbability to cover numerous leagues. The Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, the J1 League, and several other competitions are featured in the day's analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In the Premier League, the model selects **Everton vs. Ipswich \u2013 Over 2.5 goals @1.73**, with a score of 51\/100. In the Bundesliga, **VfB Stuttgart to beat Borussia Dortmund @2.38** also appears as a value bet, though with a more cautious score of 37\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In Serie A, **Udinese vs. Cagliari Over 2.5 @2.07** and **Bologna vs. Torino Over 2.5 @1.98** have also been identified as value bets. However, both selections remain classified in the \"Caution\" category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A team's league or popularity does not alter the selection criteria. All matches are analyzed using the same statistical logic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>September 18<\/strong> concludes with <strong>10 winning and 16 losing picks<\/strong> out of 26 Value Bets with a final result. The success rate is <strong>38.5%<\/strong>. Based on a fixed theoretical stake, the result is <strong>-4.37 units<\/strong>, representing an ROI of <strong>-16.8%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">On this <strong>Saturday, September 19, 2026<\/strong>, FootProbability analyzes <strong>200 matches<\/strong> and identifies <strong>39 Value Bets<\/strong>. Eight selections achieve a score of 50\/100 or higher. The Top Pick is <strong>Kristiansund BK vs. Rosenborg with Double Chance 1X @2.59<\/strong>. It earns a score of <strong>76\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+88.3%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>72.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The top 3 is rounded out by **Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA: Under 2.5 goals @2.24** and **Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham: BTTS (Yes) @2.25**. These three selections also form a \"2-out-of-3\" system bet, which has an average score of **71\/100**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results will be added to the history. FootProbability will continue to publish winning and losing predictions in order to track the model's performance over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Sports betting involves risks. Gamble responsibly.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Comme chaque samedi, le calendrier football est particuli\u00e8rement charg\u00e9. FootProbability analyse aujourd\u2019hui 200 rencontres dans de nombreux championnats et comp\u00e9titions. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 19 septembre 2026 : 39 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 19 septembre 2026 : 200 matchs analys\u00e9s, 39 Value Bets, Match Fort \u00e0 76\/100, Top 3 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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