{"id":6801,"date":"2026-09-20T02:22:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T02:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6801"},"modified":"2026-09-20T02:22:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T02:22:08","slug":"pronostics-football-20-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-20-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 20, 2026: 68 value bets and one strong pick at 81\/100."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its analysis this <strong>Sunday, September 20, 2026<\/strong>, with another packed schedule. The model has analyzed <strong>174 matches<\/strong> and identified <strong>68 value bets<\/strong>, with an <strong>average EV of +20.1%<\/strong> and an <strong>average confidence level of 53.3%<\/strong>. Among these fixtures, <strong>29 selections achieved a model score of at least 50\/100<\/strong>, allowing for a stricter ranking of the identified opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results for September 19: 18 winning predictions out of 45<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Saturday, September 19, ended with **18 winning and 27 losing predictions out of the 45 recorded selections**, representing a **40% success rate**. This percentage must be viewed in the context of the odds offered by FootProbability: several selections well exceeded 2.00, and some approached or surpassed 3.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Among the winning picks, **TransINVEST Vilnius** secured a 3\u20130 victory at odds of **2.70**, the **Over 2.5 goals @2.38** bet landed in the Richards Bay vs. Sekhukhune United match, Stoke City beat Sheffield United at odds of **2.30**, and the **Over 2.5 goals @2.16** bet easily won in the BSK Banja Luka vs. Radnik Bijeljina game, which ended in a spectacular 4\u20134 draw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day also saw several losses on selections that nonetheless offered significant EV. VPS (@3.00), Rylands (@3.00), Carrarese (@2.80), and Borussia M\u00f6nchengladbach (@2.88) all failed to deliver. This is precisely why a **Value Bet should never be interpreted as a guarantee of a win**: EV measures the theoretical gap between the model's estimated probability and the available odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Top 3 finishes with 2 winning predictions out of 3.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Saturday\u2019s most interesting result comes from the <strong>FootProbability Top 3<\/strong>. Sporting Hasselt vs. Beerschot VA ended 0\u20131, securing the win for the <strong>Under 2.5 goals @2.24<\/strong> pick. Torquay vs. AFC Stoneham finished with a resounding 6\u20131 scoreline, validating the <strong>BTTS Yes @2.25<\/strong> bet. Conversely, QPR vs. Preston ended 2\u20132, meaning the Under 2.5 @1.98 wager was a loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The Top 3 thus finishes with **2 winners out of 3**, with the two winning selections offered at odds above 2.20. This result also illustrates the value of ranking opportunities based on multiple criteria rather than limiting oneself solely to EV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">174 matches and 68 value bets this Sunday.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26-600x720.png 600w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-20-sept.-2026-06_19_26.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The schedule remains packed this Sunday. FootProbability analyzes **174 matches**, of which **68 are identified as Value Bets**. The model shows an average EV of **+20.1%**, an average confidence level of **53.3%**, and **29 matches with a score of 50\/100 or higher**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">As always, the 68 Value Bets should not be viewed as 68 selections of equal caliber. The <strong>model score<\/strong>, confidence level, and EV help distinguish the most promising opportunities from bets classified as cautious or carrying higher risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong Match: FC Voluntari \u2013 Universitatea Cluj<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>Top Pick of the Day<\/strong> is the match between <strong>FC Voluntari and Universitatea Cluj<\/strong>. FootProbability selects the <strong>Double Chance 1X \u2013 FC Voluntari or Draw @1.67<\/strong>. This selection boasts an excellent <strong>model score of 81\/100<\/strong>, with an <strong>EV of +28.3%<\/strong> and a <strong>confidence level of 76.9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The probable score calculated by the model is **1-1**, which aligns with the coverage provided by the 1X Double Chance bet. This selection currently offers the best balance between the model's predicted score, confidence level, and identified value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FootProbability Top 3 for September 20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">First place goes to <strong>FC Voluntari \u2013 Universitatea Cluj<\/strong> with the Double Chance <strong>1X @1.67<\/strong>, a score of <strong>81\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+28.3%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>76.9%<\/strong>. In second place, <strong>LDU de Quito \u2013 Universidad Catolica<\/strong> is selected for <strong>Under 2.5 @1.87<\/strong>, with a particularly high score of <strong>77\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+27.3%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>68.1%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Third place goes to a Premier League fixture: <strong>Manchester City vs. Sunderland<\/strong>. Here, the model selects the <strong>Under 2.5 goals<\/strong> market at odds of <strong>2.35<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>63\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+28.6%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>54.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A \"2-out-of-3\" system with an average score of 74\/100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">These three predictions also make up the day's **FootProbability \"2-out-of-3\" system**. The concept involves forming three double bets from the three selections. Getting two out of three predictions right results in a winning combination, unlike a standard accumulator, which requires all selections to be correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today's system shows an <strong>average score of 74\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +28.1%<\/strong>. FootProbability indicates a total suggested stake of <strong>\u20ac3 to \u20ac5<\/strong>, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Three market favorites confirmed by the model<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability now also highlights the <strong>favorites of the day<\/strong>, independently of the search for Value Bets. The first is <strong>Dinamo Zagreb against NK Lokomotiva Zagreb<\/strong>, with a model-predicted win probability of <strong>58.4%<\/strong> and odds of 1.17. The second is <strong>Jeonbuk Motors versus Gwangju FC<\/strong>, with a probability of <strong>57.1%<\/strong> and odds of 1.39. Finally, <strong>Tromso versus Ham-Kam<\/strong> shows a win probability of <strong>56.7%<\/strong> with odds of 1.45.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This category operates on a different logic than \"Value Bets.\" It primarily targets teams favored by the market whose status is also confirmed by the model's probabilities. Consequently, low odds do not automatically imply the existence of a Value Bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other value bets exceed 50\/100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Beyond the top three, several other matches also post promising scores. <strong>Levadiakos vs. Olympiakos<\/strong> is a candidate for the \"Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes\" market at odds of 2.25, with a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong> and an EV of <strong>+26.7%<\/strong>, while <strong>US Ben Guerdane vs. CS Hammam-Lif<\/strong> reaches <strong>60\/100<\/strong> for \"Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes\" at odds of 2.55, with an EV of <strong>+43.6%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In South Africa, the **Marumo Gallants vs. Orlando Pirates** match also scores **60\/100** for \"BTTS \u2013 Yes\" at odds of 2.20, with an EV of +25%. In MLS, **Colorado Rapids vs. Seattle Sounders** is selected for \"BTTS \u2013 No\" at odds of 2.30, with a score of **58\/100** and an EV of +23.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Major matchups also analyzed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The major championships offer several interesting situations this Sunday. In the Premier League, <strong>Manchester City \u2013 Sunderland<\/strong> directly enters the Top 3, while <strong>Fulham \u2013 Manchester United<\/strong> appears as a much more speculative Value Bet: victory for Fulham @3.40, EV +49.7%, but only <strong>44\/100<\/strong>, which justifies its cautious classification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In La Liga, the model notably identifies the **Getafe vs. Malaga** match for **BTTS: Yes @2.27**, with a score of **56\/100** and an EV of +24.7%. The **Atl\u00e9tico Madrid vs. Real Madrid** fixture also stands out\u2014with an Atl\u00e9tico win @3.52 and a very high theoretical EV of +67.1%\u2014but its score of **50\/100** highlights the need to distinguish between mathematical value and the level of confidence in the pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A day to be followed with the same transparency<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">After wrapping up Saturday with **18 winners and 27 losers**\u2014and a **2\/3** record in the Top 3\u2014FootProbability is back this Sunday with a fresh dataset. The **174 matches analyzed**, **68 Value Bets**, and\u2014most notably\u2014**29 selections rated 50\/100 or higher** provide ample depth to continue monitoring the model's performance across various competitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day's key pick is **FC Voluntari vs. Universitatea Cluj (Double Chance 1X @1.67)**, with a confidence rating of **81\/100 (76.9%)**. Alongside this, **LDU Quito vs. Universidad Catolica** and **Manchester City vs. Sunderland** round out a \"2-out-of-3\" system that achieves an average confidence score of **74\/100**. As always, the results will be included in the performance tracking without excluding losing selections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The odds and value bets presented are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit ses analyses ce dimanche 20 septembre 2026 avec un programme encore tr\u00e8s charg\u00e9. Le mod\u00e8le a \u00e9tudi\u00e9 174 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6801","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 20 septembre 2026 : 68 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 20 septembre 2026 : 174 matchs analys\u00e9s, 68 Value Bets, Match Fort \u00e0 81\/100, Top 3 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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