{"id":6834,"date":"2026-09-23T00:58:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T00:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6834"},"modified":"2026-09-23T00:58:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T00:58:07","slug":"pronostics-football-23-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-23-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 23, 2026: only 1 value bet, but high EV in CONCACAF."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its analysis this <strong>Wednesday, September 23, 2026<\/strong>, with a particularly limited schedule. Today, the model covers just <strong>7 matches<\/strong> and identifies a <strong>single official Value Bet<\/strong>, with an average EV of <strong>+4.4%<\/strong> and an average confidence level of <strong>56.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">However, the day presents an interesting quirk. Two CONCACAF matches score above **50\/100** and show very high theoretical EV, yet do not appear in the \"Value Bet\" category. This serves as a reminder that a high score or a calculated EV is not always enough to meet all of FootProbability\u2019s selection criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results for September 22: 2 winners, 1 loser, and one \"Strong Match\" postponed.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Based on the results recorded so far, yesterday\u2019s action concludes with <strong>two winning picks and one losing pick<\/strong>. The featured match between <strong>MC Alger and MC Oran<\/strong>\u2014originally selected for \"Both Teams to Score: Yes\" at odds of 2.35\u2014was postponed; consequently, it must be handled separately rather than counted as a losing prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>Independiente Medell\u00edn \u2013 Jaguares<\/strong> match saw the <strong>BTTS Yes @1.97<\/strong> bet land, with Medell\u00edn winning 2-1. The <strong>Chippenham Town \u2013 Yate Town<\/strong> match\u2014played on a Chippenham win @2.31\u2014also ended successfully with a 2-1 scoreline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">On the other hand, the **US Biskra vs. JS Saoura Over 2.5 goals bet at odds of 3.22** did not win. The match ended 0\u20130.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Out of the **3 actual selections made**, the record stands at **2 winners and 1 loser**, representing a **66.7% success rate**. Based on a fixed-stake simulation of 1 unit, the two winning bets yield 4.28 units from a total wager of 3 units, resulting in a profit of **+1.28 units and a theoretical ROI of +42.7%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The postponed \"Match Fort\" is not included in this calculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Only 7 matches analyzed this Wednesday.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The schedule for September 23 is even more limited. Today, FootProbability covers only **7 matches**, distributed primarily across the CONCACAF Nations League, friendlies, Colombia, and the FA Cup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Above all, the model identifies only **one official Value Bet**. Nevertheless, two matches score above 50\/100, while five remain below this threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This small number once again illustrates the FootProbability principle: the number of selections depends on available data and the model's criteria. There is no need to find dozens of Value Bets every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turks and Caicos Islands \u2013 Montserrat: the highest score of the day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The model's top pick is for the <strong>Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Montserrat<\/strong> match in the CONCACAF Nations League. FootProbability favors <strong>Under 2.5 goals @2.69<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The selection achieves a <strong>score of 61\/100<\/strong>, with a particularly high theoretical EV of <strong>+59.8%<\/strong> and a confidence level of <strong>59.4%<\/strong>. The calculated probable score is <strong>1-1<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This is therefore the best score available today. However, it should be noted that this match is listed as a **Watched Match** rather than an official Value Bet on the member page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bahamas \u2013 Saint Martin: a +78.2% variation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The system's second pick is **Bahamas vs. Saint Martin**. The model also favors **Under 2.5 goals**, this time with particularly high odds of **3.08**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The model score reaches **56\/100**, confidence is **57.8%**, and the calculated EV rises to **+78.2%**. The predicted score is also 1-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This EV figure is impressive on paper, but it should be interpreted with caution. The match is not classified as a Value Bet on the member page. We are therefore presenting it as a system selection rather than an official Value Bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Aruba \u2013 Antigua and Barbuda completes the 2-out-of-3 system.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The third match is **Aruba vs. Antigua and Barbuda**, again in the Under 2.5 goals market. The listed odds are **2.05**, with an EV of **+18.1%**, a confidence level of **57.6%**, and a score of **49\/100**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This selection is rated **Caution** and remains just below the symbolic 50\/100 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The three matches make up the day's **2-out-of-3** system. Its average score is **55\/100**, and its average EV is **+52.0%**. FootProbability suggests a total stake of \u20ac3 to \u20ac5, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The only official Value Bet: Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The only match currently bearing the **Value Bet** badge is the friendly between **Azerbaijan and Tajikistan**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability selects <strong>BTTS Yes @1.85<\/strong>. However, the model score is only <strong>39\/100<\/strong>, with an EV of <strong>+4.4%<\/strong>. The projected score is 1-1, and the selection is logically classified as <strong>Caution<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is an interesting case: unlike CONCACAF matches, which show very high EV but do not carry the \"Value Bet\" badge, Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan meets the necessary criteria to officially appear in this category.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gibraltar favored against S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 and Pr\u00edncipe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The favorite of the day is <strong>Gibraltar against S\u00e3o Tom\u00e9 and Pr\u00edncipe<\/strong>. The model estimates their probability of victory at <strong>50.1%<\/strong>, with odds of <strong>1.39<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Regarding the match itself, FootProbability also calculates a <strong>BTTS Yes @1.77<\/strong>, but with a slightly negative EV of <strong>-0.8%<\/strong> and a score of only <strong>35\/100<\/strong>. This selection is therefore classified as \"Caution\" and is not a Value Bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An unusual day for FootProbability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This <strong>September 23, 2026<\/strong>, offers an interesting example of the difference between the various indicators used by FootProbability. The model lists only <strong>7 matches and a single Value Bet<\/strong>, yet the top CONCACAF selections show scores and EV figures far superior to those of that official Value Bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This demonstrates why it is important not to look solely at EV. <strong>Model score, confidence, odds availability and quality, as well as the various selection filters, must be interpreted together.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Following the 2-out-of-3 winning record from yesterday's three selected outcomes, the approach to September 23rd will be selective. The results will then be incorporated into the performance tracking, including both winning and losing picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A \"Value Bet\" or positive EV represents a statistical estimate and never guarantees the outcome of a match. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit ses analyses ce mercredi 23 septembre 2026 avec un programme particuli\u00e8rement r\u00e9duit. Le mod\u00e8le couvre aujourd\u2019hui seulement 7 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6834","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 23 septembre 2026 : 1 Value Bet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 23 septembre 2026 : 7 matchs analys\u00e9s, 1 Value Bet et un syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3 avec une EV moyenne de +52,0 %.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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