{"id":6837,"date":"2026-09-24T01:01:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T01:01:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6837"},"modified":"2026-09-24T01:02:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T01:02:01","slug":"pronostics-football-24-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-24-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 24, 2026: 5 value bets and a 2-out-of-3 system at odds of 64\/100."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its analysis this <strong>Thursday, September 24, 2026<\/strong>, with a busier schedule than in recent rounds. Today, the model analyzes <strong>29 matches<\/strong> and identifies <strong>5 Value Bets<\/strong>, with an <strong>average EV of +26.7%<\/strong> and an average confidence level of <strong>51.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day\u2019s lineup primarily features several high-odds selections. The \"Strong Match\" scores 56\/100 with odds of 3.40, while the \"2-out-of-3\" system shows an <strong>average score of 64\/100<\/strong>. As always, a high EV indicates a discrepancy between the model's estimated probability and the available odds, not a guarantee of the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results for September 23: the only Value Bet lost.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The day of September 23rd was particularly limited, featuring only one official Value Bet. FootProbability had selected <strong>Azerbaijan vs. Tajikistan \u2013 BTTS Yes @1.85<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The match ended with a score of <strong>1-0<\/strong>. Since Tajikistan did not score, the prediction is a <strong>loss<\/strong>. The record for Value Bets followed since September 23rd thus stands at <strong>0 wins and 1 loss<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This result also illustrates why we track all results as part of our performance monitoring. A \"value bet\" represents a mathematical opportunity identified at the time of analysis, yet the outcome of a match remains uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">29 matches analyzed and 5 value bets today<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6838\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ChatGPT-Image-24-sept.-2026-04_59_21.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The schedule for September 24 is significantly more extensive, with **29 matches covered**. FootProbability identifies **5 Value Bets**, as well as **5 matches with a model score of 50\/100 or higher**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The matches are drawn notably from the <strong>UEFA Nations League<\/strong>, international friendlies, Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers, MLS, and leagues in Colombia and Morocco. This diversity allows the model to seek value across multiple markets and competitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong Match: China \u2013 Maldives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>featured match on September 24<\/strong> is the friendly between <strong>China and the Maldives<\/strong>. FootProbability selects <strong>BTTS Yes @3.40<\/strong>, meaning both teams are expected to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The prediction has a <strong>model score of 56\/100<\/strong>, a confidence level of <strong>54.5%<\/strong>, and, above all, an <strong>EV of +85.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The odds of 3.40 are particularly high for a \"Both Teams to Score\" (BTTS) bet. The value identified by the model stems precisely from this discrepancy between the estimated probability and the offered price. However, with a confidence level of 54.5%, this +85.4% EV should not be interpreted as an 85.4% probability of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Top Football Probability: China vs. Maldives in first place<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>China vs. Maldives \u2013 BTTS Yes @3.40<\/strong> logically takes the top spot among the model's best picks. It posts a score of <strong>56\/100<\/strong>, with +85.4% EV and 54.5% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The next pick is **Uzbekistan vs. Iran**, with an **Uzbekistan win @2.80**. Its model score is lower at **46\/100**, with 46.9% confidence and an EV of **+31.3%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This second pick therefore falls into a more cautious category, despite its positive EV. The high odds increase the theoretical potential, but also the uncertainty associated with the prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A 2-out-of-3 system at 64\/100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>2-out-of-3 system<\/strong> is currently one of the most interesting features of the FootProbability page. It is based on three UEFA Nations League matches, and\u2014notably\u2014all three predictions are for the <strong>Under 2.5 goals<\/strong> market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The first pick is <strong>Portugal vs. Wales: Under 2.5 @2.35<\/strong>. It earns an excellent score of <strong>66\/100<\/strong>, with <strong>60.0%<\/strong> confidence and an EV of <strong>+41.0%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second pick is <strong>Norway vs. Denmark: Under 2.5 @2.15<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>65\/100<\/strong>, 60.0% confidence, and an EV of <strong>+29.1%<\/strong>. The third is <strong>Netherlands vs. Germany: Under 2.5 @2.55<\/strong>, showing a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong>, 60.3% confidence, and an EV of <strong>+53.9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Overall, the system achieves an <strong>average score of 64\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +41.3%<\/strong>. The suggested stake displayed by FootProbability is <strong>\u20ac3 to \u20ac5 in total<\/strong>, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Portugal vs. Wales: the best score of the day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Looking solely at the model score, <strong>Portugal vs. Wales<\/strong> stands out with <strong>66\/100<\/strong>\u2014higher than the \"Strong Match\" rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability selects **Under 2.5 @2.35**, with an EV of +41.0%. The probable score calculated by the model is **1-1**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">However, this match is listed as a **Monitored Match** rather than an official Value Bet. This is an important distinction: the model score measures the overall quality of the selection, whereas the Value Bet badge depends on specific criteria applied by FootProbability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Norway\u2013Denmark and the Netherlands\u2013Germany round out the trio.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second-highest score goes to **Norway vs. Denmark**, also for Under 2.5 goals. The model assigns it a rating of **65\/100**, +29.1% EV, and odds of 2.15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\"><strong>Netherlands \u2013 Germany<\/strong> follows with a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong>. The \"Under 2.5 goals\" bet is offered at odds of <strong>2.55<\/strong>, with a calculated EV of +53.9%. Here too, FootProbability projects a likely score of 1-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">A fourth Nations League match also stands out: <strong>Austria vs. Israel \u2013 Under 2.5 goals @2.49<\/strong>, with a <strong>61\/100<\/strong> rating and +50.5% EV. However, it is not included in the 2-out-of-3 system presented today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The other value bets for September 24<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Among the other official Value Bets, the **Uzbekistan vs. Iran** match is being played on an Uzbekistan win at odds of 2.80. The score remains capped at **46\/100**, despite an EV of +31.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Two friendly matches have also been selected for the Over 2.5 market. <strong>South Korea vs. Ecuador: Over 2.5 @2.15<\/strong> shows a score of 33\/100 and +7.6% EV, while <strong>Japan vs. Uruguay: Over 2.5 @2.07<\/strong> also scores 33\/100 with +7.3% EV. Both selections are rated <strong>Caution<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, **America de Cali \u2013 \u00c1guilas Doradas** rounds out the five value bets. FootProbability selects **Under 2.5 goals @1.92**, with a score of **36\/100** and an EV of **+2.1%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Am\u00e9rica de Cali is the favorite today.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability also distinguishes market favorites from \"value bets.\" The day's favorite is **America de Cali against \u00c1guilas Doradas**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The model estimates its probability of victory at <strong>54.5%<\/strong>, with odds of <strong>1.50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">It is important to distinguish this information from the Value Bet selected for the same match. The favorite pick is for an America de Cali victory, whereas the official Value Bet is on **Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An interesting day, but very different profiles.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This **September 24, 2026**, presents a rather unique setup. FootProbability analyzes **29 matches and identifies 5 Value Bets**, with a high average EV of **+26.7%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>China vs. Maldives BTTS Yes<\/strong> \"Strong Match\" pick (odds of 3.40) boasts a spectacular EV of +85.4%, but a confidence level of only 54.5%. Conversely, the 2-out-of-3 system shows more consistent scores, ranging from <strong>61 to 66\/100<\/strong>, with an average of <strong>64\/100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today once again demonstrates why it is better to analyze <strong>odds, EV, confidence, and the model score<\/strong> together, rather than focusing on a single indicator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results from September 24 will then be added to the performance tracking, whether they are winning or losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f Sports betting carries a risk of loss. The probabilities, scores, and value bets presented by FootProbability are statistical estimates and do not guarantee any outcome. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit ses analyses ce jeudi 24 septembre 2026 avec un programme plus fourni que lors des derni\u00e8res journ\u00e9es. Le [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 24 septembre 2026 : 5 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 24 septembre 2026 : 29 matchs analys\u00e9s, 5 Value Bets, un Match Fort @3,40 et un syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3 \u00e0 64\/100.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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