{"id":6842,"date":"2026-09-25T01:27:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:27:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6842"},"modified":"2026-09-25T01:38:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T01:38:35","slug":"pronostics-football-25-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-25-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 25, 2026: 2 value bets after going 4 for 4 yesterday."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its analysis this <strong>Friday, September 25, 2026<\/strong>, with a day featuring a larger number of matches but a highly selective approach to Value Bets. Today, the model analyzes <strong>34 matches<\/strong> and identifies just <strong>2 Value Bets<\/strong>, with an <strong>average EV of +17.7%<\/strong> and an average confidence level of <strong>50.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This selective approach follows an excellent day for Value Bets on September 24. The four Value Bets tracked\u2014aside from the \"Match Fort\" (Key Match)\u2014were all winners. The China vs. Maldives \"Match Fort,\" however, was unsuccessful. This serves as yet another illustration of the importance of tracking results in their entirety, rather than focusing solely on the best performances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results for September 24: 4 out of 4 Value Bets won.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les Value Bets du 24 septembre ont r\u00e9alis\u00e9 un <strong>4\/4<\/strong>. <strong>Japon \u2013 Uruguay Over 2,5 @2,07<\/strong> s\u2019est termin\u00e9 3-1, <strong>Cor\u00e9e du Sud \u2013 \u00c9quateur Over 2,5 @2,12<\/strong> s\u2019est termin\u00e9 3-0, <strong>America de Cali \u2013 \u00c1guilas Doradas Under 2,5 @1,92<\/strong> a \u00e9t\u00e9 valid\u00e9 avec un score de 1-0 et <strong>Ouzb\u00e9kistan \u2013 Iran, victoire de l\u2019Ouzb\u00e9kistan @2,80<\/strong>, s\u2019est termin\u00e9 3-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">With a fixed stake of 1 unit, these four Value Bets yield a return of **8.91 units on 4 units wagered**, representing a theoretical result of **+4.91 units** and an **ROI of +122.8%** for this series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">However, the full record must also include the \"Strong Match\" pick. The **China vs. Maldives BTTS Yes @3.40** bet lost, as China won 3\u20130. Combining this selection with the previous four, the five visible predictions yield **4 winners and 1 loser**\u2014an 80% success rate and a profit of +3.91 units based on flat stakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is precisely for this reason that FootProbability distinguishes between the results of the different categories: an excellent day for Value Bets does not prevent the \"Strong Match\" from losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">34 matches analyzed but only 2 value bets.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">For September 25th, FootProbability covers <strong>34 matches<\/strong>, but only <strong>2 are classified as Value Bets<\/strong>. Nevertheless, the model includes <strong>7 selections with a score of 50\/100 or higher<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The low number of Value Bets therefore contrasts with the volume of available matches. The model does not seek to artificially generate more selections; a match must meet the necessary criteria to earn the Value Bet badge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strong Match: India \u2013 Panama in BTTS Yes @2.15<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18-600x720.png 600w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-25-sept.-2026-05_25_18.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>featured match of the day<\/strong> is the friendly between <strong>India and Panama<\/strong>. FootProbability selects <strong>BTTS Yes @2.15<\/strong>, meaning both teams are expected to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The selection achieves a <strong>model score of 56\/100<\/strong>, with an <strong>EV of +21.1%<\/strong> and a confidence level of <strong>56.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This prediction is also an <strong>official Value Bet<\/strong> and ranks first among the best opportunities listed by FootProbability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following the failure of yesterday\u2019s \"Strong Match\" pick\u2014which had odds of 3.40\u2014today\u2019s selection presents a different profile, with lower odds of 2.15. Naturally, this does not guarantee success: the model\u2019s confidence level remains at 56.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chico vs. Deportivo Pasto: the second value bet<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second official Value Bet is in Colombia, featuring **Chico vs. Deportivo Pasto**. FootProbability favors a **Chico win at 2.53**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The prediction receives a <strong>score of 33\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>EV of +14.3%<\/strong>. It is rated <strong>Caution<\/strong>, with a probable score of 2-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This selection clearly illustrates the difference between EV and the model score. The odds of 2.53 yield a positive theoretical value, but other indicators lead FootProbability to remain cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 2-out-of-3 system still achieves a score of 64\/100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Just like on the previous matchday, the **2-out-of-3 system** has yielded particularly high scores. Once again, the three selections are for the **Under 2.5** market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The first is <strong>Gambia vs. Somalia: Under 2.5 @2.25<\/strong>. It scores <strong>66\/100<\/strong>, with a confidence level of <strong>59.5%<\/strong> and an EV of <strong>+33.9%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second pick is <strong>Sweden vs. Romania: Under 2.5 @2.24<\/strong>, also with a score of <strong>66\/100<\/strong>, <strong>59.6%<\/strong> confidence, and an EV of <strong>+33.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Finally, <strong>Turkey vs. France: Under 2.5 @2.77<\/strong> rounds out the system with a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong>, <strong>60.0%<\/strong> confidence, and an EV of <strong>+66.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The system thus shows an <strong>average score of 64\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +44.6%<\/strong>. The stake suggested by FootProbability is <strong>\u20ac3 to \u20ac5 in total<\/strong>, distributed across the three double bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gambia \u2013 Somalia and Sweden \u2013 Romania: 66\/100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two matches therefore share the best model score of the day with <strong>66\/100<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">For **Gambia vs. Somalia**, FootProbability selects Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with an EV of +33.9%. The calculated probable score is 1-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The same logic applies to <strong>Sweden vs. Romania<\/strong>: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.24, a model score of 66\/100, an EV of +33.5%, and a probable scoreline of 1-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">These two matches have a higher score than the India vs. Panama \"Strong Match,\" but they are listed as **Tracked Matches** rather than official Value Bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Turkey vs. France: odds of 2.77 for Under 2.5 goals.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The system's third pick also merits attention. <strong>Turkey \u2013 France Under 2.5 @2.77<\/strong> scores <strong>61\/100<\/strong> and has a theoretical EV of <strong>+66.3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The odds for this market are particularly high. Here again, this EV should be interpreted as the difference calculated between the model's probability and the available odds, rather than as a 66.3% probability of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other selections score above 50\/100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The 2-out-of-3 system is not the only area where high scores appear. <strong>Nigeria vs. Madagascar Under 2.5 @2.01<\/strong> reaches <strong>54\/100<\/strong> with +18.7% EV, while <strong>Morocco vs. Gabon Under 2.5 @2.21<\/strong> scores <strong>53\/100<\/strong> with +23.6% EV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">In the UEFA Nations League, the **Italy vs. Belgium Under 2.5 goals @2.00** bet also reaches a score of **56\/100**, with an EV of +19.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">However, these remain **tracked matches**. Therefore, they should not be presented as official Value Bets, despite their attractive odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Atletico Nacional favorite of the day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The market favorite identified by FootProbability is **Atletico Nacional against Millonarios**. Its win probability, as calculated by the model, stands at **54.2%**, with odds of **1.70**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">On the detailed match page, however, the main prediction displayed is <strong>BTTS Yes @1.65<\/strong>, with a score of only 35\/100 and a negative EV of -10.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This makes it possible, once again, to distinguish the <strong>market favorite<\/strong> from the main prediction calculated for the match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FootProbability remains selective after going 4 for 4.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">So, September 25, 2026, follows a stellar performance by the Value Bets the previous day. Yet, a 4-for-4 record changes nothing about the method: today, FootProbability is selecting just 2 Value Bets out of 34 matches analyzed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>India vs. Panama BTTS Yes @2.15<\/strong> match is a key pick to watch. Meanwhile, the \"2-out-of-3\" system features three \"Under 2.5\" selections with scores ranging from <strong>61 to 66\/100<\/strong> and an average of 64\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whether after a winning day or a losing day, the principle remains the same: analyze the probabilities, look for value, and record all results without retrospectively altering the selections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f Sports betting carries a risk of loss. A value bet, positive EV, or high model score never guarantees the outcome of a match. Gamble responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit ses analyses ce vendredi 25 septembre 2026 avec une journ\u00e9e plus importante en nombre de rencontres, mais tr\u00e8s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 25 septembre 2026 : 2 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 25 septembre 2026 : 34 matchs analys\u00e9s, 2 Value Bets, Match Fort Inde\u2013Panama @2,15 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3 \u00e0 64\/100.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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