{"id":6857,"date":"2026-09-28T01:30:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6857"},"modified":"2026-09-28T01:41:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T01:41:23","slug":"pronostics-football-28-septembre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-28-septembre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for September 28, 2026: only 5 value bets today"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6858\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57-600x720.png 600w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Image-ChatGPT-28-sept.-2026-05_26_57.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability presents a much more selective slate of matches for this Monday, September 28, 2026. The model has analyzed <strong>28 matches<\/strong> and identified only <strong>5 Value Bets<\/strong>. The average EV stands at <strong>+17.2%<\/strong>, with an average confidence level of <strong>54.8%<\/strong>. Following a difficult day on September 27, the model is sticking to its established methodology rather than attempting to artificially inflate the number of predictions. Today, only <strong>4 matches have achieved a score of 50\/100 or higher<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Update for September 27: a difficult day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The results for September 27 are negative. The tracker recorded **21 completed selections\u20147 winners and 14 losers**\u2014representing a 33.3% success rate. Selections classified as \"Value\" finished with **7 wins and 11 losses**. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the result is **-1.22 units**, or an ROI of approximately **-6.8%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The main highlight comes from the **\"Strong Match\" between Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca**. FootProbability had selected \"Under 2.5 goals\" at odds of 2.16, and the match ended with a score of **1\u20130**. The \"Strong Match\"\u2014which boasted an excellent rating of **76\/100**\u2014was therefore a winning pick. However, this round serves as a reminder that a good run never guarantees future results. FootProbability tracks both positive and negative rounds to measure the model's performance over the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Match: Japan vs. Venezuela<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>featured match for September 28<\/strong> is Japan vs. Venezuela. The model selects <strong>\"Both Teams to Score \u2013 Yes\" at 2.24<\/strong>, with a <strong>score of 61\/100<\/strong>, an EV of <strong>+26.4%<\/strong>, and a confidence level of <strong>56.4%<\/strong>. The probable score calculated by FootProbability is 1-1. This selection also takes the top spot in the \"Top 3\" list.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FootProbability Top 3 for September 28<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The Top 3 kicks off with <strong>Japan vs. Venezuela, BTTS Yes @2.24<\/strong>, scoring 61\/100. Second place goes to <strong>Deportivo Cali vs. \u00c1guilas Doradas, Under 2.5 @1.70<\/strong>, with a score of 49\/100, +3.3% EV, and 60.7% confidence. Finally, <strong>Marko vs. Panthrakikos, BTTS Yes @2.02<\/strong>, rounds out the Top 3 with 47\/100, +12.3% EV, and 55.6% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This selection is more cautious than those of previous days. Only one of the three picks has a score above 50\/100. This demonstrates once again that FootProbability does not seek to artificially present three high-scoring predictions when the day's data does not warrant it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A very consistent 2-out-of-3 system.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">THE <strong>syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3<\/strong> pr\u00e9sente en revanche trois s\u00e9lections tr\u00e8s proches. <strong>T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 Italie, Under 2,5 @2,10<\/strong>, obtient 63\/100 avec +26,8 % d\u2019EV et 60,4 % de confiance. <strong>Su\u00e8de \u2013 Pologne, Under 2,5 @2,14<\/strong>, atteint 62\/100 avec +26,6 % d\u2019EV et 59,2 % de confiance. Enfin, le syst\u00e8me reprend <strong>Japon \u2013 Venezuela, BTTS Oui @2,24<\/strong>, avec 61\/100. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Overall, the system posts an <strong>average score of 62\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +26.6%<\/strong>. The three scores range from 61 to 63\/100, resulting in a particularly consistent system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Only 5 value bets out of 28 matches.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">There is a significant difference compared to yesterday. Today, FootProbability detects only **5 value bets out of 28 matches analyzed**. The top pick is Japan vs. Venezuela, while **South Korea vs. Uruguay (BTTS: Yes @1.92)** scores 40\/100 and remains rated as a \"Caution\" play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The other three Value Bets are <strong>Deportivo Cali \u2013 \u00c1guilas Doradas, Under 2.5 @1.70<\/strong>, with 49\/100, <strong>Marko \u2013 Panthrakikos, BTTS Yes @2.02<\/strong>, with 47\/100, and <strong>Legan\u00e9s \u2013 Castell\u00f3n, victory of Legan\u00e9s @3.00<\/strong>, with 46\/100. The latter displays an EV of +38.4%, but its model score remains below 50\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Good scores without Value Bet status<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">A match can also achieve a good score without being classified as a Value Bet. This is the case for Turkey vs. Italy at **63\/100** and Sweden vs. Poland at **62\/100**. Both matches are tracked by the model and included in the \"2-out-of-3\" system, but they are not among the day's five official Value Bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">We also have the <strong>Cuba vs. Bonaire<\/strong> match, with \"Under 2.5 goals\" at odds of 2.48. This pick scores <strong>60\/100<\/strong> with an EV of +46.2%, yet it is still classified as a \"Watched Match.\" This distinction allows for multiple levels of analysis, balancing mathematical value, the model's score, and the pick's final status.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FootProbability remains selective.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">September 28th therefore presents a very different profile from the previous day. After the 22 Value Bets on September 27th, the model retains only <strong>5 today<\/strong>. The Japan vs. Venezuela \"Strong Match\" scores 61\/100, and the 2-out-of-3 system shows an average of 62\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After a losing day, the goal is not to seek a \"recovery\" bet. FootProbability simply continues to apply the same criteria, identify promising discrepancies, and record all results. The model's performance must be evaluated over the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Les probabilit\u00e9s, scores et EV pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s par FootProbability ne garantissent aucun r\u00e9sultat. Jouez de mani\u00e8re responsable. 18+.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability propose une journ\u00e9e beaucoup plus s\u00e9lective ce lundi 28 septembre 2026. Le mod\u00e8le a analys\u00e9 28 matchs et d\u00e9tect\u00e9 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 28 septembre 2026 : 5 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 28 septembre 2026 : 28 matchs analys\u00e9s, 5 Value Bets, Match Fort \u00e0 61\/100 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3 \u00e0 62\/100.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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