{"id":6922,"date":"2026-10-02T01:38:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T01:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/?p=6922"},"modified":"2026-10-02T02:06:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T02:06:59","slug":"pronostics-football-2-octobre-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/en\/pronostics-football-2-octobre-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Football predictions for October 2, 2026: 5 value bets and a 63\/100 system bet."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">FootProbability continues its analysis this <strong>Friday, October 2, 2026<\/strong>, with a larger schedule than the previous day. The model analyzes <strong>30 matches<\/strong> and identifies <strong>5 Value Bets<\/strong>. The average EV reaches <strong>+22.2%<\/strong>, and the average confidence level is <strong>53.7%<\/strong>. In total, <strong>8 matches achieve a model score of 50\/100 or higher<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"853\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-853x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6926\" srcset=\"https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-853x1024.png 853w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-250x300.png 250w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-768x922.png 768w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-10x12.png 10w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris-600x720.png 600w, https:\/\/footprobability.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Affiche-Footprobability-_-Analyses-et-Paris.png 1145w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 853px) 100vw, 853px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The day\u2019s slate presents quite varied profiles. The \"Strong Match\" reaches a score of 55\/100, whereas several unranked Value Bets exceed 60\/100. This discrepancy serves as a reminder that the model score and Value Bet status do not measure exactly the same thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">October 1st update: a difficult day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The results for October 1st were negative, with **1 winning prediction out of 3 recorded**. The Maldives vs. Lebanon (BTTS Yes @3.73) and Argentina vs. Bolivia (BTTS Yes @2.43) bets lost. However, the Uzbekistan vs. Syria match was a winner with the Over 2.5 bet @1.96, thanks to a final score of 4-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">For the two selections classified as \"Value\" in the tracker, the record stands at **1 win and 1 loss**. Based on a fixed theoretical stake of 1 unit, the return is 1.96 units for 2 units wagered. This represents **-0.04 units and a theoretical ROI of -2%**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This day further illustrates the importance of tracking results over a long period. A selection with high EV can lose, whereas a poor success rate can sometimes remain close to break-even thanks to the odds played.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Big Match: Widad T\u00e9mara \u2013 UTS Rabat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>featured match for October 2nd<\/strong> is Widad T\u00e9mara vs. UTS Rabat. FootProbability selects <strong>Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.61<\/strong>, with a model score of <strong>55\/100<\/strong>. The EV stands at <strong>+39.4%<\/strong>, and confidence is <strong>53.4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The model therefore detects an interesting discrepancy in the Over\/Under market. The odds of 2.61 offer significant theoretical value, but the score of 55\/100 suggests a measured approach to this selection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This marquee match also takes the top spot in the FootProbability Top 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-luminous-vivid-orange-background-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpc\/v=ifonumaTrpbG0AC56NqpRLcZTETpLnhtIaRbrn7dXow_GA7331V2&amp;aff_var_1=\">Play on Betsson<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-ast-global-color-8-background-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpc\/v=BCiXZA34qjYIAECRB2MrBk7BjOHq4wA3Pj1ZUocV9sU_GA7331V2&amp;aff_var_1=\">Play on PokerStars<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-vivid-red-background-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpc\/v=JV8XcNIJcs-nLNqFNhmR4KS.L.BbNir09A.GCywfSrY_GA7331V2&amp;aff_var_1=\">Play on NetBet<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A top 3 with three different profiles<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The Top 3 begins with <strong>Widad T\u00e9mara \u2013 UTS Rabat, Over 2.5 @2.61<\/strong>, with a score of 55\/100. The second pick is <strong>Independiente \u2013 Instituto C\u00f3rdoba, BTTS Yes @2.08<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>52\/100<\/strong>, an EV of +17.2%, and a confidence level of 56.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Third place goes to <strong>DR Congo vs. Uganda, Over 2.5 goals @2.38<\/strong>. This selection scores <strong>49\/100<\/strong>, with an EV of +23.1% and a confidence level of 51.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unlike the previous day, the three top-ranked selections do not all score above 60\/100. Nevertheless, the model retains these three matches as its top picks based on the day's rankings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"fp-partners\">\n  <div class=\"fp-partners-title\">\n    \ud83c\udf81 Offers from our partners\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"fp-partners-grid\">\n\n    <div class=\"fp-partner-banner\">\n     <script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=htM75nEwY5-TJYiMO6kyIhTsnsWpjOaKcYuRY8l.-C4_GA7331V2&#038;aff_var_1=\"><\/script>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"fp-partner-banner\">\n      <script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\"\n        src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=QpOhKyKnnGfmXfDtpgM4eiVkPP6L5VhRtKmvad8LMWk_GA7331V2&#038;aff_var_1=\">\n      <\/script>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <div class=\"fp-partner-banner\">\n      <script type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\"\n        src=\"https:\/\/www.gambling-affiliation.com\/cpm\/v=V6sVtfhh.EjSFQATHdM5KLy8gLaKKELmYaPNCO6lsug_GA7331V2&#038;aff_var_1=\">\n      <\/script>\n    <\/div>\n\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"fp-partners-disclaimer\">\n    18+ \u2022 Play responsibly \u2022 Gambling involves risks.\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A \"2-out-of-3\" system with an average of 63\/100.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The <strong>2-out-of-3 system<\/strong> currently shows higher scores than the Top 3. The first selection is <strong>Saint Lucia vs. Guadeloupe, Under 2.5 @2.28<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>66\/100<\/strong>, an EV of +37.4%, and 60.2% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The second pick is <strong>Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Sweden, Under 2.5 @2.08<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>62\/100<\/strong>, +25.7% EV, and 60.5% confidence. The third is <strong>Cayman Islands vs. Puerto Rico, Under 2.5 @2.88<\/strong>, with a score of <strong>61\/100<\/strong>, +71.1% EV, and 59.4% confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">The system thus achieves an <strong>average score of 63\/100<\/strong> and an <strong>average EV of +44.7%<\/strong>. The three selections are for the Under 2.5 market, with odds ranging from 2.08 to 2.88.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 5 Value Bets for October 2nd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Today, FootProbability has identified **5 value bets across 30 analyzed matches**. Widad T\u00e9mara vs. UTS Rabat ranks highest with \"Over 2.5 goals\" at odds of 2.61 and a score of 55\/100. Independiente vs. Instituto C\u00f3rdoba follows with \"Both Teams to Score (Yes)\" at odds of 2.08 and a score of 52\/100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Congo DR \u2013 Ouganda est propos\u00e9 en Over 2,5 @2,38 avec <strong>49\/100<\/strong>. <strong>Cor\u00e9e du Sud \u2013 Venezuela<\/strong> est s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9 en BTTS Oui @2,00 avec <strong>48\/100<\/strong> et +13,0 % d\u2019EV. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La cinqui\u00e8me Value Bet est <strong>Eldense \u2013 Oviedo, Over 2,5 @2,34<\/strong>. Elle affiche un score de <strong>43\/100<\/strong> et une EV de +18,1 %. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The five Value Bets do not all carry the same level of confidence; scores range from 43 to 55\/100. It remains important to consider the model score alongside the EV and the odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Matches followed with a score above 60\/100<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">A notable feature of the day is that the system's three highest scores are not classified as Value Bets. Saint Lucia vs. Guadeloupe reaches **66\/100**, Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Sweden **62\/100**, and the Cayman Islands vs. Puerto Rico **61\/100**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">Other matches also achieved impressive scores. Belgium vs. Turkey and France vs. Italy both reached **56\/100**, while Poland vs. Romania scored **54\/100**.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This makes it possible to distinguish between two important concepts in FootProbability. A high model score measures the overall quality detected by the algorithm, whereas \"Value Bet\" status depends on the criteria used to identify an odds-based opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No favorite for the day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No favorite meets FootProbability\u2019s criteria today. The \"Favorites\" section therefore remains empty. The model prefers not to propose any team rather than artificially adding a selection to fill this part of the page. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This approach remains the same regardless of the day. The number of value bets, favorites, or highlighted selections depends on the available data and the model's criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A broader yet still selective day<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph translation-block\">This Friday, October 2, features <strong>30 analyzed matches resulting in just 5 Value Bets<\/strong>. The key match between Widad T\u00e9mara and UTS Rabat scores 55\/100 with odds of 2.61, while the \"2-out-of-3\" system stands out with an <strong>average score of 63\/100 and an average EV of +44.7%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After a difficult day on October 1st, the goal is not to try to recoup losses. FootProbability continues to apply the same criteria and retains both winning and losing results in its history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FootProbability analyzes the probabilities. The results decide the rest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Les paris sportifs comportent un risque de perte. Une Value Bet, une EV positive ou un score \u00e9lev\u00e9 ne garantit aucun r\u00e9sultat. Jouez de mani\u00e8re responsable. 18+.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FootProbability poursuit ses analyses ce vendredi 2 octobre 2026 avec un programme plus important que la veille. Le mod\u00e8le analyse [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pronostics football du 2 octobre 2026 : 5 Value Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostics football du 2 octobre 2026 : 30 matchs analys\u00e9s, 5 Value Bets, Match Fort \u00e0 55\/100 et syst\u00e8me 2 sur 3 \u00e0 63\/100.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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