The 2026 World Cup enters its decisive phase with a match that has every football fan dreaming: France versus Spain. This semi-final pits two of the world's greatest footballing nations against each other, each boasting exceptional generations of players. On one side, Les Bleus, led by Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé. On the other, Spain, spearheaded by Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal.
The statistical model FootProbability analyzed this match based on team performances, individual player statistics and attacking projections in order to identify the most interesting markets as well as the most likely goalscorers.
An extremely balanced duel
The probabilities calculated by the model perfectly illustrate the expected balance between the two teams. France has a slight advantage with a 42.3% chance of victory, compared to 31.7% for Spain, while a draw is estimated at 26.0%. The most likely score is 1-1, proof that this semi-final could remain undecided until the very last moments.
Despite this balance, the offensive projections remain high with 1.50 goals expected for France against 1.27 for Spain, which suggests an open match.
The best football prediction probability
The market that offers the best compromise between probability and value is the Over 2.5 goals.
The model estimates the probability of seeing at least three goals in this semi-final at 52.3%. With odds of 1.95, this market offers slight value and is the best prediction selected by FootProbability.
The probability of both teams scoring also reaches 56.2%, reinforcing the idea of an attacking encounter where each selection should create several clear opportunities.
Kylian Mbappé, the main attacking threat
Unsurprisingly, Kylian Mbappé appears to be the player most likely to tip the scales in this semi-final.
The French captain has a 24.8% chance of scoring during the match and a 9.3% probability of scoring the first goal. His speed, finishing ability, and influence in big games explain why the model places him at the top of the attacking projections.
France is also the team most likely to open the scoring, with an estimated 50 %.
The three most likely goalscorers
Behind Mbappé, two Spanish players complete the podium of attacking projections.
Mikel Oyarzabal occupies second position with a 17.8% chance of scoring, ahead of Lamine Yamal, whose probability is estimated at 14.0%. The presence of two Spaniards in this top three illustrates the attacking potential of La Roja despite their status as slight underdogs.
On the French side, Ousmane Dembélé also remains a player to watch thanks to his ability to make a difference in one-on-one situations.
A semi-final that could live up to all its promises.
Beyond the final result, all indicators of the model point to a spectacular match. Both teams possess enough attacking talent to match each other for the full ninety minutes, while the attacking statistics suggest several scoring opportunities.
The scenario of a closed match seems less likely than that of a fast-paced semi-final where each team will quickly seek to gain the advantage.
FootProbability Analysis
According to our statistical model, the Over 2.5 goals market is the best prediction for this match. Kylian Mbappé appears to be the most likely player to score, while France maintains a slight advantage to score the first goal and secure qualification for the final.
As always, FootProbability analyses are based on probabilities calculated from statistical data and never guarantee the outcome of a match. Their primary purpose is to identify opportunities offering the best theoretical value over the long term.